Last year we profiled who we thought would be the top-impact rookies of Season 42 - here's a repeat of that post with updates on the progress of our 16 candidates.
#1 - Tony Arias, SP
- Jacksonville: Arias was a $24MM - bonused IFA in Season 39 who
projects as a 150-inning starter or long reliever...or maybe a closer.
No weaknesses and he'll only get better. Don't see him winning Cy
Young's due to the low stamina, but he's a good bet for next year's ROY
and could definitely win FOY's if he's used as a closer. 3.34 ERA in 99
AA innings this year.
Update: Jacksonville could use a little more pitching and he's bored in AAA with a 1.20 ERA - almost certain to be a Game 20 callup.
#2 - Gerald Lim, C
- Montgomery - #2 pick of the Season 39 draft clobbered High A pitching
to the tune of .366/34/142 this season. Excellent power and splits
combined with better than average contact/eye...will be the best overall
hitter in this group. His splits improved by 10 points each in his 3rd
pro season, so he's going to get a pretty good improvement next year.
Good pitch-calling ability but inferior arm for a ML C...might start his
career as a DH.
Update: only OPSing 1.717 in AAA, so yeah he's ready. Game 20 callup.
#3 - Francisco Guerrero, 1B - San Francisco: $29MM IFA in Season 39, he's poised to take over at 1B with Harvey Tracy's contract expiring. Hit .362/35/139 in AA and on-based a ridiculous .506. His glove and (especially) arm will be a bit of
a liability at 1B, but his bat is too good to keep in the minors again.
Update: SF committed big-time to Yamil Cairo at 1B to give Guerrero 1 more MiL year. I think they'll stick to the plan despite Cairo's .683-OPS start.
#4 - Lorenzo Rosario, CF
- Jacksonville: $23.5MM IFA, will likely take over in CF for the ID's
next season. He doesn't look like he'll be a star either offensively
or defensively, but his power probably means a few Silver Sluggers.
.296/47/147 in AAA this year.
Update: Despite trading Carlos Validivia, it looks like Helena may take command of the NL North early, so there's no crying need for Rosario. But he already has 4 MiL seasons and is as ready as he's going to get. My guess is they promote him at Game 20.
#5 - Alexander Pickett, RF
- Florida: .331/46/146 in AAA for Season 38's #1. 40-HR power...I
think he'll be a little better/more consistent on-base guy than fellow
RF Estrada, although I think their careers will end up being very
similar. They could both end up being on the AL ROY ballot next year,
and you could do worse than betting those 2 against the field to win the
ROY.
OPSing 1.370 in AAA, Florida is off to a lukewarm start and there's certainly room for his bat in the ML lineup. Game 20 callup.
#6 - Harry Estrada, RF
- Kansas City: #11 pick in the Season 38 draft was slowed by injury
this year but still posted a fine .331/30/97 AAA season. Solid defender
in RF, 40-HR power, .340-.350 on-base skills and some stolen bases to
boot. He could be a ROY contender next year and will likely see a few
All-Star games.
Update: KC has been keeping RF warm for Estrada for awhile now. The question is not will he be called up at Game 20, it's "Who will be the better RF, Estrada or Rosenthal?"
#7 - Chick Rosenthal, RF - Richmond: #14 pick of Season 38 is not quite the bat of fellow RF's Pickett and Estrada
but
gets the edge on defense. .316/37/121 this year in AAA - probably
closer to a .330 on-base guy than Pickett or Estrada's .340-.350 but could have
comparable power. Another bonus: faster and a better baserunner than
the other 2.
Started the season on the ML roster and has OPS'd .799 so far...and has handled lefties (the big question on him). I think he'll improve.
#8 - Junior Burawa, SS
- New York: Ready to step in as the everyday SS, #18 pick in the Season
37 draft looks like he'll be a pretty good batting average/on-base type
hitter with the occasional 15-HR season. Not a GG-caliber SS, but
solid. Likely to see a few All-Star games and end up with a Silver
Slugger or 3 over the fireplace.
He'd be a big upgrade at SS, but NY is generally slow to promote rookies. Probably stays in AAA this year unless NY needs a boost for the mwr.
#9 - Happy Cepeda, RP
- Kansas City: Home-grown reliever was #19 in the Season 37 draft. 9
saves, 2.51 ERA in 89 AAA innings this year, his velocity/flyball skills
probably make him KC's closer of the future. Game 20 callup.
#10 - Edgard Mendoza, RP
- Kansas City: $12.5MM IFA in Season 38, he's a near-clone of
bullpen-mate Cepeda, but with the advantage of being a surer bet against
lefty hitters. Whoever wins the closer job, late innings against KC
are going to be tough sledding for a long time to come.
Game 20 callup.
#11 - Thomas Alcantera, SP
- Philadelphia: $17MM IFA in Season 38, he pitched in AA this year and
went 12-9, 2.87 in 159 IP. His splits are not overly impressive, but I
think his 4 very good pitches will more than offset the splits
deficit. I don't think it's a 100% certainty that Philly promotes him
next year, although he's ML-ready and didn't improve much this season -
otherwise I might have moved him a bit higher in the top 10. Update: 1-1, 2.81 ERA with a sterling 5.18 OPS-against. This guy's going to be really good and is the early leader for AL-ROY.
#12 - Alex Kim, OF
- Cincinnati: As a $37MM IFA, I think you have to say his development
has been a little disappointing, although he'll be a good MLer. He hit
.331/29/136 in AAA this year. His best position is going to be LF,
where he might contend for a GG or 2...putting him at 1B (where he would definitely
win GG's) wouldn't be crazy, but he'd be an inferior hitter there.
Typical ML season will be something like .266, 32 HR's, .331 OBP. Update: OPS'ing 1.134 in AAA and has 4 MiL seasons, so he's pretty fully-baked. But it's not clear that Cincy can challenge Helena, so he may get 1 more AAA season.
#13 - Shigetoshi Bong, SP
- Richmond: $16MM IFA in Season 39; he makes this list somewhat due to
the shortage of ML-ready true SP's. The hope here is that his very
good pitches outweigh the shaky splits (especially that 51 vL). He's
performed well at 3 MiL levels, topped by this year's 20 wins and 2.58
ERA in 185 AAA innings
Update: has pitched well at every level, and Richmond wants to defend its South title, so maybe we see him at Game 20.
#14 - Eddie Fonville, IF
- Las Vegas: only 2 years in the minors, but Season 40's #1 overall
could get the call - Vegas has a hole at either 2B or 3B (whichever
Stock doesn't play). Hit .280/39/111 at 3 minor-league levels this
year. Don't expect big production next year if he does get the call,
but he's still improving and could eventually become a .275/35-HR
infielder. His defense is ready for 2B or 3B in the majors and will
likely get to SS level...maybe very good SS level.
Update: one of the more interesting cases on our list, as he only has 2 MiL years, but Vegas is trying to contend and 3B Meulens is overmatched. I'm guessing, but I think they bring him up to play 3B at Game 20.
#15 - Bartolo Espinosa, 2B - New Orleans: I don't expect greatness but he should have the opportunity with 2B Pressley
going into his 3rd arb season. He hit .322 and on-based .404 in AAA -
not bad for a relative bargain $8.3MM IFA (SEA 38). Not a GG'er at 2B
but should ring up a decent number of good plays. Update: went to OKC in the Rule V, where he's getting the RF playing time against righty pitching. More-than respectable .403 OBP and .870 OPS.
#16 - B.J. Kirby, DH - Richmond: with Willie Germen
signed for 2 more seasons, I'm not sure he sees the majors next year
unless 1 of them is traded. But he's definitely a Major League hitter -
.371/56/184 in AAA this season. Kirby was the #24 pick in Season 39. Update: still stuck behind Willie German, but his 1.430 OPS in AAA makes you wonder how much longer that will be the case.
#17 - Peter Stockton, CF
- Oakland: #9 pick of Season 37, he's another ML-ready guy who is
probably blocked in OAK and may need a trade (of him or an OF in front
of him) to see the Show. .325/38/154 in AAA this year. Update: 1.326 OPS in AAA and he gas 5 MiL seasons, so we'll see him in the ML outfield soon.
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