bjc30
SEA 41: 87-75, won Division, lost on Round 1 to Milwaukee
Song(s) resembling Season 41: Virginia Bluebell by Miranda Lambert
2 Division Titles in 3 years for Richmond, and the lineup gets an infusion of power from rookies Miguel Fuentes (originally a $21MM IFA in Season 38) and Chick Rosenthal (Season 38's #14 pick overall). With the added help for 3-time All-Star and 4-time Silver Slugger Destin Williamson, the offense could break into the top 6 or 7 in runs scored.
I think you have to describe Richmond's pitching staff as "anonymous but effective". They've apparently shuffled the rotation to start the season but it appears Jumbo Morris and Matt Booker are the front twosome. Pedro Flores seems to have the stuff to be an effective closer but has only put together one really good season (39) in five tries. The rest of the 'pen doesn't look like much but always seems to get 2 or 3 guys to step forward and outperform expectations. I'm tempted to credit the ballpark, but it's perfectly neutral; the defense (.988 % and78/25 on +/- plays) certainly contributes.
Speaking of defense, at the moment they don't have a SS on the ML roster or at AAA, so they're still looking for a replacement for last year's better-than-expected Matt Redmond (15 + plays, .969).
Prognosis
Assuming they add a SS (and assuming that's still doable from among the leftover FA's), I like their chances to boost their runs and battle Montgomery for the Division. 91 Wins.
silentpadna
SEA 41: 86-76
Song(s) resembling Season 41: People Get Ready by Al Green
I love it when teams commit to winning and Montgomery did exactly that this season in a huge way. They traded for an ace in Julio Cano, a very good setup in Miguel Cedeno, a very good 2B in Arthur Taylor, another 100 innings of ace-quality pitching (either as a starter or a reliever) in Jean-Carlos Posada, and another good SP in Edgmer Gil. And, they managed to hang onto 2 of their 3 best prospects (they did move David Seneca in the Taylor/Posada trade). To top it off, they added 2 more P's - Marco Smith and Derrin Duncan - and a 1B - Rip Wheeler - in free agency.
Add all those pitchers to what was already a top staff (4.22 ERA - 5th) and they might have something really special. Line up Cano, Vic Merced and Posada as your 3 playoff starters (with Cedeno, Smith, Duncan and Odrisamer Belliard working the late innings) and you can see this team going on one of those epic runs and just crushing playoff opponents.
Doesn't look like they're quite done building the offense, as they look like they only have 1 OF currently on the roster. But with Steve Walsh plus the pieces they've added they'll be OK. And they have to promote Gerald Lim in 20 games, right? I think he's just too good a hitter (and a good pitch-caller to boot) to leave in the minors.
Prognosis
Just on what they've done with the pitching I think they get to 95 wins. Promote Lim and find a couple of decent COF's and they go over 100 wins. 102 wins and Division Title.
groth911 SEA 41: 78-84
Song(s) resembling Season 41: Baseball Boogie by Mabel Scott. I dunno, I can't really make a connection; I just like the song and had to work it in somewhere.
Florida's probable lineup has Trevor Payton catching, Nicholas Wilkins replacing Yoervis Barrios at 1B, Douglas Spivey at 2B, Hamish Durbin at 3B, newcomer Miguel Oropesa at SS (although I think we can expect to see Yamil Garrido get lots of late-inning work), Ezdra Rodriguez in LF, Joakim Cleto in CF and Edgardo Mercedes in Right. They have 11 position players on the roster at the moment, so I think they're still combing through FA leftovers for a DH.
It's last year's lineup less Barrios, plus some more pop at SS. It was a 750-run offense last year (13th in AL) - we're looking at something similar this season.
The Frogs' 4.18 ERA (2nd) last year was powered by a series of stunningly good bullpen performances, some of which are going to be very hard to duplicate. Max Sipp posted a 2.28 ERA versus a career mark of 4.39. Hector Cruz was similarly outstanding: 2.44 versus 4.46. Eric Duncan had his best ML year by far with a 3.27 ERA (5.25 career). Then again, Al Montgomery was way above his career norm (5.80 vs. 4.42), and Ernest Carey wasn't very good either (3.81 vs. career 2.97). Probably lost in the shuffle was another superb campaign by Marcos Presley - 9 wins, 10 saves and a 2.62 ERA in 151 innings...is he HOF material?
Florida trotted out an average-ish defense last year: .986 fielding % and 66/21 on +/- plays. I think they'll lose a little bit of they make the change at SS from Garrido to Oropesa, but Oropesa will still make a lot of + plays with his arm.
Prognosis
Kind of a blah offseason from Florida compared to the boldness of Montgomery and the youthful power injections from Richmond. They seem to be wavering a bit in the near-future direction: back up and re-load for a season or 2, or try to coax one more Division Title out of an aging crew? For now they look a lot like last year - 75 Wins.
bigmattr
SEA 41: 66-96
Song(s) resembling Season 41: All The Aces by Motorhead
It's a simple plan: trade for Chris Osborne, stay ahead of the mwr for a few seasons with great post-FA signings like Mark Henry for $925K, grab a good draft pick and an IFA every year (like Socks Jenkins and Juan Carlos Alvarado last year). And when you're ready to contend and Osborne's still only 30 you've got an ace for another 8 years and a prime pipeline.
Bonus plan: when you sense you can make a great deal for a veteran (Stan Story), pull the trigger - it helps with the mwr and you can probably flip him for a profit.
It sounds real simple but New Orleans has been executing it particularly well - maybe too well, as their starting rotation with Osborne and Story up front might look pretty good on some contenders. Seriously, that pitching staff is going to be a lot better than a 5.43 ERA (last year's). The offense managed 749 runs last year, but with probably only 2 "+" hitters in the lineup (vL platoon catcher Eugenio Martin and CF Touki Epstein)... I can't see them going over that total with the current lineup. Their defense could be better (147 errors and "-" plays) but I'd be more concerned about it if they were at the contending stage.
Prognosis
I like the plan, it's a nice little tweak on the traditional "sell everything and strip down to a $10MM payroll motif". It'll be interesting to see what happens if they get offers for their 3 very interesting players (Osborne, Story, Epstein). 71 Wins.
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