Monday, August 31, 2020

Season 48 AL North Preview

We kick off this year's previews with Hobbs' toughest division and home of the new Champ Jayhawks.  While the 'hawks led all year, the dogfight for 2nd eventually rewarded Milwaukee with a Wild Card berth.  Can S48 live up to S47's drama?


The Lineup:  Couple of pretty good moves to try to boost last year's 742 runs.  The biggest was a 3-year FA deal for former OAK 1B Domingo Marmol.  He was good for 28-30 HR every year for the A's and will like the smaller dimensions of Olympic Stadium.  They also added Benny Cordova, I'm guessing as an all-round 1B/DH/COF backup.  He should be better than the departed Eddie Washington although Eddie had a pretty good year (.808 OPS).  Heath Dickerson shouldn't suffer any falloff until his age 36 season next year.  They're solid at 3B and LF with Javier and Cave.  They go with stronger defense at C, 2B and CF, which leaves them a tad short on production - they'll depend on rookie RF Patrick Axelrod (#16 overall in S44) - or maybe an Axelrod/Cordova platoon - to give them one ore solid run producer.  I think their runs will be up some - maybe 765.

The Staff: They made 3 big additions to the staff this offseason to try to improve on last year's 4.25 ERA.  The first was a FA deal for SP Pep Kawakami, who was a consistent 170-inning, 4.00 ERA guy in his TOR career.  Montreal's park is a bit more hitter-friendly than Toronto's, so I'd expect Pep's numbers to be a little higher.  They've also brought up 2 promising rookies, SP Lester Ordonez ($5MM IFA S44) and RP Robert Gibson, S43's #19 pick.  With 12 pitchers on the relief-heavy staff, we might see a 4-man rotation of Kawakami, Ordonez, Ken Stevens and Clarence Mays.  So RP's Benny Lira, Deven Wakeland, Gibson and Tiny James will get plenty of work.  It's hard to predict pitching...I think they'll be a little better but if 1 or 2 of their starters has a terrible year they could be worse.

The Leather:  It's a very sure-handed bunch (.990 fielding %) who also make a lot of good plays (88) and very few poor plays (12).  They pretty much go defense-only at SS, 2B and CF...that helps the pitching staff quite a bit and (theoretically) produces more 1-run wins.  Maybe that explains coach34's tendency to beat both expected wins and the predictions of forecasters.



The Lineup:  They make contact, they hit for power, they get on base...they do everything except steal bases very well.  Their best player, Joaquin Merced, hit 41 HR's last year and was probably the 4th-best hitter behind on-base experts Guerrier (.409) and Osuna (.417), and rookie sensation Joshua Purcey.  3B Higashioka is their 2nd-best power source and LF Estrada has established himself as a reliable .830 OPS hitter.  CF Panik and SS Wilhelm both contribute double-digit HR's.  Both of last year's 1B, Dillon Mateo and Yoslan Goya, have moved on and will be replaced by longtime Oakland A Darren Haren.  Haren had (by far) his worst season as a major-leaguer (at age 29...curious) and will bounce back to around a .775 OPS.  I think they'll score more runs this year...look for Merced to return to something more like his S45 form.

The Staff: Well, they led the AL in ERA by a healthy margin and Nicky Glaus won the CY.  Glaus is a good pitcher, and the team's defense helps a lot, but I'm not betting on another year like S47 for him.  On the other hand, I'd bet Castillo will be better.  Santo Ramirez enticed us with a 2.77 ERA in 52 innings as a rookie.  They have an over-abundance of talented bullpen arms with Cepeda, Mendoza, Brown and Merced. I can't explain James Haney.  He has 3 pretty good seasons in Boston, then 1 bad one.  OK, it's a tough park on pitchers.  But KC is neutral and Haney's been terrible.  But you look at his ratings and figure he's in the rotation, at least to start the season.

The Leather:  Very good defense getting better.  Haren in RF is a GG contender, as is Merced at 1B.  Think 100+ good plays...maybe that will be enough to get Haney on track.


The Lineup:  The offense (8th-ranked last year) revolves around slugging 2B Pablo Guerrero, 1B Tanyon Joyner and former MVP CF Chico Astacio.  Guerrero is still a top power threat, but Joyner and Astacio are in their age 34 seasons and showing  the first signs of age (power and range have fallen off the last few seasons).  LF Montanez is probably their best table-setter - he's been hitting second behind Astacio in Spring games.  RF Ted Locke showed some promise with 23 HR's as a rookie.  They've got some pop with their 2 C's Nen and Suppan; don't know whether they plan to platoon those 2 or use one at DH.  They don't expect much offense from SS and 3B.

The Staff:  Pitching was a real strength last year and they added to it with the Al Montgomery and Yasmani Costilla signings.  The rotation is probably going to be Stan Story, Montgomery, Costilla, Justin Dunham (? got 32 starts last year), and Socks Jenkins, although 3 or 4 more could factor in.  They only have 2 non-SP/LR's on the staff - closer Mateo Andrus and MR Bo Burrell, who can throw more innings than most of the starters if they need him to.  Lots of innings here, fatigue should never be a factor.  It's an unusual pitching setup with so many SP's, but I like it because if 1 or 2 guys start badly (or even continue badly), you can just plug in somebody else without getting squeezed on innings.

The Leather:  Incredible team defense last year with a .988 fielding % and 108/9 +/- plays.  SS P.T. Ordaz (20 + plays) is the anchor, but he gets plenty of help from LF Montanez (19+), 2B Guerrero (17+), 3B Valentin (16+) and 1B Joyner (13+).  No question the defense knocks a few points off that team ERA. 



The Lineup:  Homers, Homers, Homers.  That's been the plan on offense the last few years, resulting in 290+ long-balls  every year since Season 45.  43 each last year for 1B Hughes and 2B Shea, 35 for RF Martin, 4 more with 23+.  But they hit 295 jacks in both S46 and S47, but scored 82 fewer runs in S47, thanks mostly to a drop in OBP from .328 (11th) to .314 (15th).  The trade of C Walter Nen for SP  Chad Haynes just might indicate a little change in philosophy.  While Haynes was a good defensive C, he was their best hitter there and more to the point, clearly their best power-hitting C.  Given their other moves in the pitching arena, we could be seeing a renewed emphasis on pithing from 'doggs management.  Certainly they'll be dependent on power hitting for this season, but we'll see if this year's pitching moves signal a change.

The Staff:  Kind of a new look.  Nash Hobbes left in FA and Tomas Alcantara went to Austin in a late-season trade.  The likely rotation appears to be Gutierrez, Schulte, Jenkins, Liz and Burch or Mann, with rookie Ed Farquhar probably getting a shot at some point.  The relievers are all 1-2 inning guys, including 2 of the best ever, closer Yordano Valdes and Aurelio Duran, still going strong at 40.

The Leather:  The defense is in the middle of the AL pack.  SS Escobar isn't a Gold Glover but makes a lot of great arm plays and commits an acceptable number of errors given his offensive output.  3B Pujols makes a few too many errors but compensates with good plays.  2B is the critical position where they're giving up a lot, but Shea's been a 40-HR player for the last 4 seasons.  CF Cespedes -  like a lot of the position players - is adequate on defense given his contributions at the plate.




Sunday, August 30, 2020

Season 47 In Tweets, Part 2

 

Milwaukee Rebounded to 91 wins behind pitching (2nd ERA, 3 SP's under 3.70, Andrus 45 saves), stellar D (.988, 108 + plays) and Guerrero (42 HR, 107 RBI)



Montgomery Pretty good season for a tear-down. New nucleus Norman (.828 OPS), Magee (34 HR, 116 RBI), SS Huff (.780 OPS in 78 games) and IFA Mercedes



Montreal Won more games (85) than the expected % (81) and the forecasters (73 and 80) again; Dickerson (32/110), Cave (34/112) and A+ Defense (.990, 88/12) led way



New Orleans Traded everybody again; Eiermann hit .363 after coming from Austin; Chong 34 HR; Zhang 12-8 3.45 ERA; landed top IFA SP Saul Santana



New York 4th in ERA and 6th in runs, but fell to 3rd in Division; team of stars with Clancy (.332/24/108), Chen (51 HR 149 RBI), Teagarden (7 W, 16 Sv, 3.59); defense disappointed



Ottawa Not impressive team stats - 13th in runs, 14th in ERA, but Rojas 10 Wins/3.33 ERA, Rosario 6th straight 40-HR year and lots of help coming soon



Philadelphia 82 fewer runs than S46, and in the North that got them 4th place. Still, A+ performance from Hughes (43HR), Shea (43HR), Valdes (35 Sv), Gutierrez (17 W, 3.17)



Richmond 1st Division Win since '41 behind Kirby .292/31/100, Malone 35/99, Anderson 24 Sv 3.02 ERA, and Miranda 11 W, 3.10 ERA. 23 1-run wins helped but it was never close



San Francisco Started slow but won 90 and the Division by 17 games. Offense was down 150 runs so depended on P's Marks (16-6, 2.47), Carver (11 Sv, 2.17), Doubrant (17W, 3.35)



San Juan Defense helps but only so much – 95 good plays led by Elcano 18 and Guzman 16. Nathan (37 HR 88 RBI) top hitter, Miller (9 W, 3.34) and Bonilla (30 Sv, 3.91) top P's



Scottsdale How do you have both 115 errors and 83 good plays? 160 HR's...I miss the days (the 30's) of Trammel (555 Career HR), Morales (666), Polonia (468) et al



St. Louis Tough first year of turnaround; Taubensee (42 HR 98 RBI), Tipton (.304/28/72), Cheney (3.26 ERA), and Wagner (3.84) kept them above the mwr; Jairo Carrera a good start on filling the pipeline



Toledo Serious run-scoring (865) behind Reid (45/134), Ritz (.307/29/110), Guzman (.864 OPS); pitching (Kinney 18-8, 3.23) was a notch below WS caliber



Toronto Robbins 2nd MVP, Team ERA (Morris 17-9, 3.23; Whang 41 Sv, 2.94) improved but hit hot Austin in playoffs. Jordan 128 HR in 1st 3 seasons; D (.989, 80/15 won some games)



Trenton Became the new Philly with 307 HR (Cayones 51 and 6 more over 20); pitching not as impressive but improved with Jaime addition (7 W, 3 Sv, 2.64 in Trenton)



Vancouver Improved 10 wins and battled TOR all the way; key move was getting Blackley (15 W, 3.83) pretty cheaply in the preseason; Rosenthal (37/120) and ROY Stairs paced lineup

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

Season 47 In Tweets Part 1

 To save the previewers the trouble of commenting on last year's performances, decided to post a brief summary of each team's S47, Twitter-style...more or less 140 characters.  Enjoy

Arizona Burawa Ryan Gil trades a season late to make mwr but solid foundation; Alvarado a 3B tire fire after 2 seasons; palet #1 on S49 waitlist


Austin Even with 94 wins, they seemed to under-achieve until playoff time. Led NL in runs but bad mid-relief and 34 bad plays hurt (DH in RF)


Boise Sometimes owners have to go deal with real life, and sometimes it doesn't matter to their HBD teams...this time it did


Boston They keep winning & making playoffs, despite the obvious shortcomings of ownership and management; 5th in runs, 11th in ERA


Buffalo 1st year of rebuild so far so good. 11 trades set up a wave of mid-range talent to arrive S48 and 49. 6 wins below projected.


Cleveland Young talent piling up – Koplove 12 wins, Tannehill 3.36 ERA but need more than 156 HR. Jville starting over and Columbus aging.


Colorado Park is the manager's nightmare – 6.71 ERA. To project to .500, they would have had to score 200 more runs than they did (921 actual)


Columbus 99 wins with almost the whole staff (Malachi Carver was 29) over 30. rdierkers won the WS 1st year here and has never won less than 89


Florida 1-run games matter: expected wins were higher than Richmond's expected wins. Once you make the tourney who knows?


Honolulu End of an era: Brad Terry moves on after a couple of near-MVP seasons and 454 Hrs. Querecuto is the real deal but needs more help


Houston 2nd in ERA, 5th in runs, 98/10 good/bad plays, extreme youth foretell bright future. Alomar and Tart both excelled in same season 1st time.


Jackson 11-season Division streak came to and end, but they're not done. Walsh still OPS'd 800+, Boswell OB'd .393, and 1-2 starters were money


Jacksonville Wrapped 7-season run with 1 WS, 4 100-win seasons and 3 90-win seasons. Valdivia ends HOF career with 4 MVP and 618 HR


Kansas City Impressive. 101 wins, 3rd in runs, 3rd in ERA, Grade A defense, and first WS in 35 seasons. Congrats dakar, well-deserved


Las Vegas All about the Big 4 Ainsworth Stock Fonville & Taylor. 3 were below career norms & LV had worst season last 3. Benitez best yr since '35


Los Angeles 107 fewer runs than S46 and still won the Div. 27 1-run wins helped, as did 4th-best ERA and 98 + plays. D-first wasn't great for playoffs tho


Sunday, August 2, 2020

How Did The Prognosticators Do?

S47 had the usual surprises, but I guess we can say our prognosticators were pretty decent.  top picked 5 of 8 division winners, while blanch got 6 of 8.  On average, blanch missed by 6.3 wins and top by 6.5.

The surprises.  Neither picked the AL West division winner (Los Angeles), although both were pretty tight on their win predictions for the division.

Our pickers missed Buffalo and Toronto by an average of 15 wins, so I guess those were our big surprise teams this year.  top's biggest miss was 23 under on Toronto; blanch's biggest whiff (not Boston or MOntreal for a change) was 17 under on Buffalo.

On average, the Al East and NL West (average miss by 8.5 wins) seemed to be the hardest to pick this year.  The AL West and NL South - both with average misses of 4.63 wins - were the easiest.








Diff Diff Ave Diff Div
AL North top blanch Actual top blanch Team Diff
Kansas City 101 96 101 0 5 2.50 5.50
Milwaukee 88 89 91 3 2 2.50
Montreal 73 80 85 12 5 8.50
Philadelphia 94 91 84 10 7 8.50








AL East






Toledo 92 91 92 0 1 0.50 8.50
Boston 69 89 87 18 2 10.00
Buffalo 62 58 75 13 17 15.00
Trenton 87 76 73 14 3 8.50








AL South






Richmond 77 76 90 13 14 13.50 6.88
Florida 77 84 75 2 9 5.50
Montgomery 70 79 69 1 10 5.50
New Orleans 65 63 61 4 2 3.00








AL West






Los Angeles 76 83 82 6 1 3.50 4.63
Las Vegas 81 88 81 0 7 3.50
Oakland 82 74 76 6 2 4.00
Colorado 75 60 64 11 4 7.50








NL North






Toronto 73 89 96 23 7 15.00 7.50
Vancouver 91 83 92 1 9 5.00
New York 96 88 86 10 2 6.00
Ottawa 68 60 68 0 8 4.00








NL East






Columbus 89 89 99 10 10 10.00 5.13
Jacksonville 94 87 93 1 6 3.50
Cleveland 70 62 71 1 9 5.00
St. Louis 61 57 58 3 1 2.00








NL South






Austin 106 93 94 12 1 6.50 4.63
Houston 93 92 91 2 1 1.50
Jackson 82 89 78 4 11 7.50
San Juan 76 80 75 1 5 3.00








NL West






San Francisco 90 99 90 0 9 4.50 8.50
Honolulu 87 80 73 14 7 10.50
Salt Lake City 82 78 72 10 6 8.00
Scottsdale 67 89 70 3 19 11.00




208 202





6.50 6.31