topoftheworl
SEA 41: 109-53, won Division, won World Series
Song resembling Season 41: We Are the Champions by Queen
As is his annual habit, top pulled off one of the biggest deals of the off-season, landing 3-time MVP Carlos Validivia and excellent (3.35 ERA) reliever Alex Vargas for CF prospect Lorenzo Rosario, 24-yo RP Gil Clemens and OF Dario Chong. The trade shores up an already-prolific offense (807 runs last year, #2 in the NL) and an already-elite bullpen: their top 4 relievers (Morlan, Sosa, Kohn, and Urbina) all posted ERA's under 3.70 last year.
If there is a weakness in J'Ville (and that's by no means a certainty) it's the starting rotation; there's no ace or clear #1. Still, aided by a tight defense (.987 fielding % and 98 + plays versus only 28 - plays) they were more than adequate last year. Esmerling Martin was spectacular (12-5, 2.62) after arriving from OKC, Rusney Colome was the ironman (18-11, 3.38 in 261 IP, Shane Jenkins continued to shine (14-5, 3.71), and Shep Mazzaro surprised everybody with a near-ROY effort (14-7, 4.04) effort.
Can that staff repeat those numbers? Martin and Colome were quite a bit better than their career norms, and Mazzaro could easily post a 5.00 ERA. Veteran Cliff Floyd will likely see more starts this year, and if someone falters they could turn to Tony Arias. He's certainly major-league ready, and while he doesn't have the stamina (53) of a classic starter, the 'pen can certainly handle innings 6-9 if he gets regular starts.
The ID's' defense certainly bolsters the pitching numbers. Their .987 fielding % was just a point off the league lead, and their 90 plus plays were 8 back of NL Leader Baltimore. 1B Tanner Mlicki led with 18 + plays; 2B Lou Crawford posted 14 and 3B Alex Kennedy recorded 13. They could use a real CF (Greg Ward - 7 - plays), but it's a minor flaw in an otherwise sterling defense.
Prognosis
I think everything went right with their rotation last year, and I can't see that happening again. But the offense and 'pen are even better, so it's hard to predict much of a falloff. 106 wins and they take the Division again.
rdierkers
SEA 41: 105-57, Wild Card, lost to Texas in Round 1
Song resembling Season 41: Hit That Jive by Gramatik
The challenge this off-season was re-creating a 100+ win team after a good chunk of the roster filed for free agency (pitchers, Derrin Duncan, Alfredo Osoria, and Boots Snider; and position guys Gene Cummings, Bryan Valaika and B.C Alfonzo).
The good news is with the exception of Alfonzo, none of those guys were core components of the machine that has 290 wins the last 3 years, and they just re-signed Alfonzo.
Looking at their lineup you probably wouldn't guess that they led the NL with 819 runs last year. They're not one of those monster power-hitting teams - Rafael Moreno's modest 29 bombs topped the team - but they get on base (league-leading .345 OBP) and from there it's RBI-by-committee with 13 players contributing more than 30 RBI.
The pitching staff is similarly efficient. Yes, J.P. Rapp was magnificent (22-5, 2.67 in 262 innings) in winning his 2nd CY, but starters 2,3 and 4 (Keller, Viciedo and Tepera in some order) notched 41 wins and all posted ERA's under 3.70. I'm not sure if Andre Counsel was injured last year, but he only threw 100 or so innings; if he can get back to 180-200 innings I think the Buckeyes will again have the most effective 5-man roatation in the NL. The bullpen is not as deep as J'Ville's, but has a pair of legit stars in Andrew Lane and Malachi Carver.
Like Jacksonville, Columbus helps its staff with stingy defense: a .988 fielding percentage and 64/15 on +/- plays.
Prognosis
105 wins is a pace that's tough to maintain, especially with a team getting some age on it. This is still a very good team, with an excellent shot at WS glory. But I think the offense will regress a bit, and things almost never go perfectly with pitching staffs. 99 wins and a Wild Card.
mlhutch
SEA 41: 94-68, Wild Card, advanced to NLCS and lost to Jacksonville
Song resembling Season 41: Sweat of the Bud by Static-X
The Paladins lost SP Lawrence Hannity in free agency but otherwise navigated the offseason unscathed. To replace Hannity, they went to the economy aisle with Ernie Gaudin and Vic Quintero - at worst low-priced long relief or mopup guys and rotation contributors if they get lucky.
Pawtuckett trots out the NL's most power-packed (266 HR's) lineup with sluggers like 1B Jean-Carlos Gonzalez (50 last year and 653 for the career), 2B Jack Hayes (44 last year), 3B Bud Robbins (30), LF Yoslan Nunez (32), and RF Kory Atkins (35) all hitting 30 or more big flies. For all the power, though, the lineup seems inefficient, scoring only 754 runs - 6th in the NL, despite drawing a good number of walks (525 - 4th). That performance is quite consistent with Seasons 40 and 39, though, so it seems a good marker for what we can expect again.
The pitching staff was also 6th-ranked in the NL (3.74) ERA, but it somehow seems like they got more than their money's worth from this unheralded group. Emblematic of this staff is Andy Wagner, who in 4 seasons has rolled up 50 wins and a 3.61 ERA in 792 IP...not ace-level but there's not a staff in Hobbs he wouldn't be welcome on. How'd Pawtuckett come by his services? He was signed as minor-league free agent in
Season 33. The big break was picking up a DITR somewhere along the way, and he cracked the rotation as a rookie in Season 38.
Other than Willie Matos, the rest of the staff is similarly anonymous and more or less as effective (although I do expect an improvement over last year from Miguel Taveras).
Good D seems to be the rule in the East - The Paladins tied for first in fielding percentage at .988. They do fall a bit below their division-mates in +/- at 52/35.
Prognosis
Pawtuckett has win totals in the 90's for 6 seasons now, and there's little reason to expect much change. The power-centric offense will get old pretty soon with Gonzalez hitting age 34 and Hayes and Atkins 30, but not this year. 95 wins and a Wild Card.
jake72
SEA 41: 80-82
Song resembling Season 41: Having An Average Weekend by Shadowy Men On A Shadowy Planet
Lost in all the NL East playoff teams the last couple of seasons has been Baltimore's rise to .500 after Seasons 35-39 in the wilderness.
Can they take the next step? Maybe (but it looks like they're not planning to)...here's what would have to happen:
1. 1B Phillip Kennedy hits a lot closer to Season 40's .902 OPS than Season 41's .684. .684! I'd bet big on that happening.
2. Despite Kennedy's dreadful Season 41, the team still scored 55 more runs than in Season 40 (675, still sub-NL average). Step up and grab a couple of budget hitters cheap in a free agent class where talent is going begging - they'll still be able to afford an IFA.
3. Hope that the relatively young, cheap and effective (3.86 ERA - 7th in NL) pitching staff stays effective. There's always a hope element somewhere.
Would that get them to 90 wins? Everything would have to go perfectly, and it rarely does. They might save their big push for a couple of seasons, when several low-minors prospects (Larry Cumpton, Jose Benitez, Brian Tannehill) will be ready or nearly so, and by that time Columbus and Pawtuckett could be showing some cracks. Then again, there are rumors among insiders that the Crabs are taking a hard look at some of the Type A's that have slipped through to the bargain bin.
***Update March 4***
As rumored, this morning Baltimore added 4 Type A free agents to the roster (IF Bryan Valaika, IF/OF Chi-Chi Figueroa, and versatile middle relievers Myron Perez and Matthew Benes), along with defensive catcher Russell Goodwin. The moves have a much more pitching/defense flavor than I recommended, but I like it.
Prognosis
Season 41's roster, plus a little better pitching and D, with a much better season from Kennedy. 88 Wins.
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