jmercer77
SEA 41: 94-68, won Division, lost in Round 2 to Milwaukee
Song(s) resembling season 41: (I Can't Get No) Satisfaction by The Rolling Stones
Top record in the AL last 2 seasons, no playoff wins last 2 seasons. Any changes?
Not many - Julian Fernandez replaces Lou Trammel in LF on a modest FA contract and Kouhei Kim gets promoted but is unlikely to be more than a mopup.
Montreal can make a case for having the best offense in the AL. They were 4th in runs scored last year (887), but tied (with Milwaukee) for the best OPS away from their home park (.808) and had the most road HR's (135). It's primarily a power-based attack, with 6 players at 26 or more HR's last year (RF Brooks Bell blasted a career-high 52). I don't think Fernandez will quite live up to Trammel's .807 OPS, but all in all the offense will still be one of the AL's best.
The defense is solid, fielding an AL 2nd-best .988. They don't make as many good plays as some teams but still posted a respectable 72/30 on +/- plays.
The Shamrocks' pitching took a pretty good dive from Season 40 last year, ranking around the middle of the AL pack. Staff ace Mark Pettitte had a terrible season (14-8, 4.71) and should make a strong rebound. Sam Teagarden had another stellar year (9 wins, 4 saves, 3.20 ERA in 132 IP)...the whole bullpen was probably the savior last season. Purcell, Shaban and Sardinha are the #'s 3,4, and 5 starters - all are the kinds of pitchers who range from pretty good to terrible. All were pretty bad last year; regression to career norms would yield a little improvement from those 3.
Prognosis
With their prolific sluggers, Pettitte, and a stingy bullpen, I think they'll win 92-98 pretty easily. The question is more how the other starters will hold up in the playoffs. 95 Wins and a Wild Card.
Zattack
SEA 41: 92-70, Wild Card, advanced to WS and lost to Jacksonville
Song(s) resembling season 41: Winning Streak by Glen Hansard
There's one every year: a team that gets hot at exactly the right time and makes a charmed playoff run. The Chedda was that team last year. How'd they do it and can they do it again?
Usually it's a pitching hot streak, but Milwaukee's 3.79 playoff ERA was only 3rd in the AL. They did have the best AL OPS in the postseason, but it was a non-dominating .732. So I'm going to chalk it up to good timing. I guess my story is they have decent-to-very-good hitters at every spot...no glaring holes. 2B Pablo Guerrero (.311/33/116), RF Tanyon Joyner (.298/29/98), and LF Dan Burke (.309/25/92) are the lead breadwinners, but even SS Thomas Hemingway (.718 OPS, 19HR, 61 RBI) is a nice offensive contributor.
Pat Jodie is the clear ace of the staff, but I don't think it's a stretch to say he's been a bit of a disappointment (career ERA 3.29). Last year (15-7, 2.61 in a career-high 210 IP) was his best as a MLer, though, and he could be settling into a 10-year run of contending for the CY every year. Polin Araujo has been a good, consistent SP over his career but the rest of the SP candidates are up-and-down or unproven (although it's kinda nice to see Clarence Mays get his shot after 8 years in the minors). The late-inning guys don't have flashy ratings but put up good numbers.
Prognosis
The team looks remarkably similar to last year's squad (minus some big names like Walton, Beckett and Bailey but due to injury or age those guys didn't really produce much). The easiest thing in the world would be to predict 91-93 wins. But modelling my prediction here after last year's AL East tie. Milwaukee wins 95, and Wins the North on a tiebreaker.
dakar
SEA 41: 79-83
Song(s) resembling season 41: Blind Boon's Rag Medley no. 2 by Blind Boon - only dakar is old enough to remember this one (1909).
59, 70, 79...the win totals are creeping up every year. Nothing in their 2 minor FA signings suggests a big push to contend this year, so let's see where they stand on the rebuild.
In summary, great shape. They have a couple of young stars already at the ML level (C B0 Guerrier and 2B Lenny Mack) with a smattering of good young compliments, an OF star (Harry Estrada) and 2 setup stars (Edgard Mendoza and Happy Cepeda) plus another 3-4 MLers at AAA, a ridiculous AA roster containing Yem Higashhioka, the closest we're every going to get to Jin-Chi Itou (Joaquin Merced), and a future ML SP (Nicky Glaus), a #1 or #2 SP in High A with Maicer Candelario, and another nice SP prospect in Low A with Butch Vaughn.
And to top it all off they've got the lowest payroll in either league, which means another top IFA.
We've got a super-team currently ruling the roost in Jacksonville and another one building in New York, but I think I like Kansas City's pipeline a bit better than the Giants'. How's this for a prediction: in the next 12 seasons we'll see at least 4 New York - Kansas City World Series matchups.
Prognosis
They're going to start contending pretty soon if they promote their AAA stars - Estrada and Mendoza each have 4 minor-league seasons, and Cepeda has 5. I'm assuming they won't hold those guys back again. 86 Wins.
Philadelphia Erffdoggs
wholck
SEA 41: 64-98
Song(s) resembling season 41: Kids From Philly by George Thorogood
After a couple of rebuild years, Philly is working its way back into contention. Economically, with a lot of late-FA 1-year contracts and a $55MM ML payroll, but they're making a move.
First big move was the promotion of Season 38 IFA Thomas Alcantera, who will step right into the #1 SP role, and I think he'll excel. TA has very good control...only moderate splits but those 77-81-81-77 pitches 1-4 will more than compensate. He's my early fav for AL ROY. They also promoted C Walter Nen, their Season 38 #1 pick and #19 overall. I don't think he'll see an All-Star team but he'll be a better-than average performer both at the plate and behind it. Think .260/18 HRs and a decent caught-stealing %.
The dogs also dipped hard into FA, splurging a little early on Gene Cummings and Harvey Tracy but then waiting out quality budget signings of Jeanmar Ozuna, Joe Wilk, Slick MacFarlane and a pair of short relievers.
This lineup isn't going to lead the league in anything, but it 's not bad. Probably below league average in HR's and OBP, but there are no glaring holes anywhere.
I'm ot sure who the #2 behind Alcantara is...maybe MacFarlane or Nash Hobbes. The rest of the rotation - grab bag. The new short guys - Peavey and Samuel - will help some but can't throw enough innings to transform a so-so pen...there will be some late-innings blown leads.
Prognosis
I think the Erffdoggs will surprise a lot of people this year. Probably not enough to overhaul Montreal, but a jump up to 80 Wins.
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