Season 48 AL West Preview

 

Boise Bandits

rquin9

The Lineup:  A new owner, a new city and an old team;  all the ingredients for a rebuild.  Last year's team had 4 power sources,  3 of those four Tim Jeter, Darren Haren and Domingo Marmol are gone, leaving LF Dallas Sever (,280/23/.268) as the main power source.  Holdovers Achilles Hoffman at C and Peter Stockton (CF) are decent players, while 1B Bobby Appel and 3B Weldon Bailey will help some.  Overall, this is an offense that will struggle.  Early callups won't provide a lot of help, but RF Erasmo Lunar, 1B Derby Williams and C Bill Gyorko may provide aa little boost.  Last season's .703 OPS may look pretty good in hindsight.

The Staff:  If there is a reason for optimism about making the MWR, it lies with the starting rotation.  Four of five SPs return, and all are good MLB pitchers, led by team ace Luther Padden.  All are in their early 30s so they should not begin to experience declines for a while.  Closer Willis McDade notched 37 saves last year but is not what you would hope for in your closer.  No one stands out as more than a borderline Major league pitcher after that.  The only potential help in AAA is LH SP Lonny Sosa who has to harness his control a little better to make an impact. 

The Leather:  Same song, different verse.  A lot of poor to middling fielders with the exceptions of 3B Bailey who is exceptional, and the platoon at SS of PT Franco and Brian Pritchett, who are both good.

Boise looks to be doing a high wire act tiptoeing along the MWR, Those starters had better be ready for some real heavy lifting.  I say he slips in by two wins for next year, but then it gets really hard the year after,

Colorado House of Horrors

werniss

The Lineup:  Here is a surprise, the Horrors led the AL in pretty much every significant stat last year, OPSing .900.  Led by superstar DH/C Frank Graham (.314/68/155) they should pick up right where they left off.  He is supported by 1B Yoslan Nunez (.314/43/135), CF Phil Crawford (.301/32/84), RF Emil Buchanan (.299/45/103) and LF Einar Nunez (.318/28/75).  They may drop off a little due to some lineup changes and a slightly improved emphasis on defense, but I still expect a team slash line of around .288/.345/.510.  That is a top 2 or 3 hitting team in any league.

The Staff:  Gulp.  Here is the downside to playing in Coors.  Last year's team had an ERA that was 1.65 above the next worse team.  The best ERA on the team for a pitcher with ore than 20 innings pitched was Pedro Morales at 5.42  The rotation would be good enough to befit a .500 team in a neutral park, but Lon Loman, Carl Latham, Carson Wallace and Morales don't cut it in the mile high city.  Burke Yarnall is a good RP who can pitch a lot of innings but every other reliever has at least one flaw that makes him just unplayable at altitude.  Neal Thomas in AAA has pretty good stuff, but flunked his first MLB test in Salt Lake last year.   I would still call him up at game 20 to see what he can do.

The Leather:  Give werniss credit here. While the Horrors are still not a really good defensive team, they will be improved, which will help the pitching staff immensely.  Moving Buchanan to RF, opens up 2B to a Taylor Barkley/ Max Vazquez platoon at 2B.  Moving Yoslan Nunez to 1B (where he should thrive) opens LF for Einar Nunez.  Add good fielders in C Wayne Janssen and 3B Olmedo Hernandez, and average to good pitchers will have a chance. 

The outlook in Colorado looks somewhat better this year.  From last year's 64 wins, I look for an improvement to something like 70-72 this year.  As with Boise, the MWR looms large.

Las Vegas Mongeese

buffalo_rob

The Lineup:  RF Willie Taylor (.275/42/120) is the straw that stirs the drink in Vegas.  You can pencil him in for those numbers every year.  After him, it seems like most of the Mongeese hitters had down years.  LF Howie Lee (.254/17/60), 2B Damon Ainsworth (.276/15/66), 3B Greg Stock (.254/20/64) and 1B Fu-Te Okajima (.250/20/73) all are capable of better performances.  CF Tyson Sample (.247/12/63) was lost to SF.  Young Will Crane can easily replace his bat, but will not match his glove.  SS Eddie Fonville (.259/25/71) is just a solid player who is good at everything.  Miguel Perez could probably use an upgrade at DH, or a platoon partner to hit righties, despite posting good numbers: .292/21/60.  Overall this was a pretty average group of hitters, who should improve due to some bounce back seasons.  Lets say an improvement from 737 runs to about 780.

The Staff:  The pitching was just about as average as the offense.  The rotation has a bunch of guys who are going to be right around 4.50 ERAs.  If there is a potential guy who may be an ace, it is probably Maicer Candelaria (12-7 4.64)  He has good velocity, fine pitches and vL.  If either his vR or control  were over 80, he would be a stud.  Viosergy Cummack (1 -13 4.20)is in a similar place: A quality pitcher if he had at least one good pitch after his first.  Yimi Arcia (37 saves) was a very good closer, last year.  Daniel Parker (1.21/3.24) was a fine setup man despite questionable splits.  Enerio Otanez (1.29/4.37) was also a good innings eater.

The Leather:  This was the strength of the team last year, with a +/- play numbers of 86-15.  Losing Sample and 6 time GG winner Yamil Gerrido will hurt.  Crowe and Fonville will struggle to replace their output.  Otherwise they are still going to be solid.  Stock will have to get a GG at 3B one of these seasons, while C Jordany Pujols (.210/9/49) is not in the lineup for his bat. Look for a little drop in production, but still above average.  

Last year had average hitting and average pitching.  Quite the surprise hw would finish 81-81. With no real help in the minors and a veteran team, I would be tempted to say he finishes within a couple of games of season 47.  Given the rebuilds other teams in the division are embarking on, I will call him an 87 game winner, just missing the playoffs.

Los Angeles Motley Crue

Iceman67

The Lineup:  That the Crue finished over .500 last year was certainly not a testament to their bats.  Their slash line of .236/.294/.366 were all dead last.  Mot just in the AL, but in all of Hobbs....kind of impressive actually.   The highest average on the team (.267) belonged to 2B Tony Acosta.  The biggest bats were CF Al Padilla (.250/23/79) and  LF Yoervis Dejesus (.242/28/84).  Rookie Adam Dale at 3B (.208/14/57) was not good at all, but looks like he should improve quite a lot.  1B Elmer Borkowski and RF Rico Bournigal may be called up from AAA to help out, but they are not likely to be major upgrades.  With no new faces added and limited help available in the minors, expect more of the same for season 48.

The Staff:  The strength of the team lies with it's pitchers.  Aided by all the plus plays from their defense and the good defense of catchers DJ Douglas and Garland Harris, they finished 4th in ERA at 4.08 and fifth in WHIP at 1.29.  The starters were led by Welden Jenkins (14-8/3.23), the hilariously named Sticky Puffer (14-10/3.28) and Rico Alomar (11-11/3.67).  Erstwhile ace Matty Ludwick finished at 12-10 and 4.38, but at 32 should easily bounce back.  Lefty Dan Eibner was fantastic in the closer role, posting 49 saves en route to the Fireman of the year award.  Rookie Keon Lowell looks to move into the prime setup role.  An overall solid staff other than a weak middle relief corps.

The Leather:  The defense may be as good as the hitting is bad.  Led by Acosta (31 + plays and 1B Clint Susac (29 + plays), they finished in third place overall with 98 as compared to just 18 minus plays and were average or just above in both fielding % and stolen base %.

With the two rebuilding teams, it is hard to see them dropping, even if 82 wins last year seemed like overachieving.  Look for them to finish second to Vegas with 84 wins.

Season 48 NL Forecast

As usual, I way overshot 1296 wins with my first estimate.  It really feels like New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Columbus, Houston, Austin and Jackson are all a few games better than I'm showing below, but it's my best guess that adds to 1296.  I also like to pick one total surprise to come out of the woodwork every year, but I just couldn't find one this year.  

	S48
	Forecast Wins
New York Skyscrapers	93
Toronto St. Pats	92
Vancouver Chin Music	89
Ottawa Mounties	78
Columbus Buckeyes	92
Cleveland Vikings	80
St. Louis A-Bombs	70
Jacksonville Fake ID’s	58
Houston Colt .45s	96
Austin Apocalypse	94
Jackson Mississippi	80
San Juan Padres	75
San Francisco Fog	83
Honolulu Luau Dawgs	77
Arizona Altitude	76
Scottsdale Cardinals	63

Season 48 NL North Preview

 

Toronto St. Pats

bluebaran

The Lineup:  The St. Pats suffered this season's biggest FA loss with the Kennedy signing by San Fran.  38 HR's, 117 RBI, 1462 innings played at 1B (with 25 good plays) - that's a load to replace but management handled it deftly.  Bud Robbins moves to 1B, where he'll be every bit the player Kennedy was, plus some.  Cam Wathan moves from CF to 3B, and rookie Rafael Wilfredo takes over in CF.  So they replaced Kennedy with Wilfredo.  He was a $17MM IFA in S44 who's going to be a pretty good hitter - think .260 with 20-25 HR's.  He's got the range to play CF but I suspect his glove is going to be a bit of a liability.  The again, he'll hit better than almost all "true defensive" CF's.  They're going to lose a little offense going from Kennedy to Wilfredo, but given the salary difference, it's a great replacement.  Robbins, Kim and Jordan are still at the top of their games, so we can expect 740-750 runs.  

The Staff:  Toronto took the Kennedy savings and re-invested it mostly in pitching.  For about 2x what they paid Kennedy last year, they signed Vladimir Pescado, Ronald Hoover, Dave Waters, and Wilbur Harris.  Not a huge impact, but a step up at some mid-and-lower-spots on the staff.  Jumbo Morris and Chris Houston are still the 1 and 1A SP's and the guys who have to get 210-220 IP with ERA's in the low 3's.  Charles Wiltse really flourished in Toronto after toiling for years in the pitcher nightmares of Hartford and Durham - as (I guess) their #3 starter he's a key as anybody.  I think we'll see a little better pitching this year in TOR.

The Leather:  They catch everything (.989 fielding %) and their 80/15 was one of the best +/- in the NL.  Robbins will be even better at 1B than Kennedy was, Wathan could be a GG contender at 3B and Coffey is A+ at SS.  They're going to have some errors in CF and 2B, but nothing major.  They'll still be among the best defensive squads in the NL.

Ottawa Mounties

jrcpga

The Lineup:  The rebuilding Ottawa lineup has been all Lorenzo Rosario (with the occasional hot streak from 3B  Fergie Schmidt , RF Miguel Fuentes and C Torey Lively), the slugging CF who's gunning for his 7th straight 40-HR season.  I think the farm system will finally get him some help this year with the callups of Vin Andino and Juancito Blanco.  Andino was the #20 pick in S43 and has developed into a good-field, average-hit 2B/3B.  Blanco was a $37MM IFA in S45 who has become a great-range, great-arm SS who can hit for power.  There's really no point in keeping him in the minors for another year, since he's 24 and they'll have him under control through his age 34 season (when his power, range and arm strength will be plummeting).  They need to just plug him in at SS now and enjoy the next 11 seasons.  They could also get a little boost from second-year 1B Blake Kohlscheen, who's not the ultimate answer but is better than his rookie .727 OPS suggests.  If he starts slowly we could see Bump Graveman (S44 #7).  Livan Lee (S45 #5) seems a sure bet for a callup as well.  So we could see 4 promotions at the 20-game mark, with 3 being pretty serious power bats.  They're going to score more like 730 runs this year.

The Staff:  You couldn't have asked for a better first 2 seasons from Audry Rojas.  The $35.8MM IFA from S43 has 21 wins and a 3.23 ERA.  Unfortunately he's the only interesting arm on the ML staff - for now.  Things pick up in a few games when they promote Jose Encarnacion, but they'll still only have 2 (albeit very) interesting arms.  I see management shopping  Andrews (AA) and Forrester for bats...I don't know, it looks to me like they have the bats and desperately need more pitching.  Their really good pitching prospects are in the low minors, but they could promote Andrews and Forrester - and Victor Sanchez (AAA) and Avery May (AA) for that matter - and be better off than they are now.

The Leather:  They haven't been very good in the field of late but will improve with the promotions.  Blanco will still make some errors but will be a big play machine at SS.  Andino may not win a starting position but can hit enough to get into games as a defensive replacement. And Lee is a clear step up at 2B over Guardado. 

This will be one of the most interesting teams in Hobbs this season.  They'll score a lot more and play better defense...the question is whether they can assemble a competitive staff.  With 3 tough competitors in their division, I don't think they can contend this year, but they'll be a lot of fun. 

New York Skyscrapers

tytabs

The Lineup:  Whoa, adding Alex Kennedy and Tanner Mlicki was probably the single biggest move of the offseason, (although it looks like Mlicki will be a 1-season rental).  This was already a 747-run offense, paced by the power of Yao-Lin Chen (.270/51 149) and the on-basing of Ralph Clancy (.332/24/108).  Stat note: the previews occasionally take note of the active 6-season, 40-HR streak by Lorenzo Rosario, Willie Taylor and Gerald Lim.  Over that 6-season stretch, Chen has 301 HR's to Rosario's 264, Taylor's 255, and Lim's 254.  Kennedy takes over at SS from last year's trio and Mlicki goes to LF in place of (mostly) Gus Vanguri.  Big upgrades.  Look for 800 runs.

The Staff:  It's mostly last year's 3.87-ERA staff with some minor changes.  The front 3 of Holland, Waters and Seaver all posted 3-something ERA's with 13+ wins and 200+ IP.  That puts you in contention right there.  Rob Kulik (3.78 ERA) and Harvey Matz (3.15 ERA) both performed well in part-time rotation tryouts last year, so they've won the #4 and #5 spots.  Both are decent, but as Matz start to this year has show (11 IP, 11 earned runs), I doubt either will be a 3-something ERA pitcher for his career.  It's reasonable to forecast that they'll struggle a little at 4 and 5 and (maybe) have someone else settle into those spots as the season wears on.  The bullpen is somewhat of an enigma.  They of course have Sam Teagarden eating up middle innings and they've gotten very nice short relief work out of Daric Fordham.  Julio Rivera and Carter Bradley hurt them last year. Both should be pretty good, but especially Rivera, and he's put together a 4.40-ERA resume so far.  They need one more killer in the 'pen.

The Leather:  Defense in NY is, well, not a strong point.  Chen's no maestro at 3B, Uribe in CF is range-challenged, and Kennedy will be bad at SS.  Uchida got a little unlucky with so many bad plays (13) last year; he's not that bad, but he's far from a "defensive weapon" at 2B.

The big story here is the lineup boost Mlicki and Kennedy bring.  With a little pitching luck they could be special.

Vancouver Chin Music

TXLnghrn

The Lineup:  Pretty much a stand-pat offseason for Vancouver, other than the promotion of S43 IFA Wilin Ascensio - he brings some RH pop as the vL catcher.  The Music was #2 in runs in the NL last year with a versatile attack that did everything pretty well:  3rd in HR's (RF Rosenthal tops with 37), 3rd in OBP (CF Mota .383), and even though they weren't prolific base-stealers they were efficient (2B Stairs 30-of-32).  Stairs, of course, took the NL ROY and I'd bet he'll be better this season.  Kenny Miller was a key FA signing, contributing 103 RBI - they need a repeat of that performance.  I expect around last year's 826 runs again.  

The Staff:  Familiar faces save new LR Ken Diaz and rookie Karim Lee.  Looks like they'll repeat last year's rotation of Tollberg, Blackley, Jones, Garces and McMahon (69 wins and 996 innings).  Dick Voight handled another 148 innings in relief (6 wins, 8 saves, 3.39), so those 6 guys threw 78% of their innings.  Hoss Siddal and Onan Martin have shown flashes and could contribute this year, but they're low-inning short relievers.  Tell me what their 5 starters + Voight will do this year and you'll have the story of their '48 staff.  Should be pretty good.

The Leather:  .987 fielding % and 73/21 +/- in S47, so they definitely help the cause in the field.  Silva and Walters are a top SS duo (23 + plays between them), and they get excellent defense with Mota in CF, Contreras at 1B and Rosenthal in RF.  Stairs is just adequate at 2B and Miller is a bit of a liability at 3B (obviously, both more than make up for it at the plate).

The Chin Music surprised us with their hot start and jump up to 92 wins, but if you look at the roster, it wasn't a fluke.  Solid hitters everywhere, a budding star in Stairs, and Grade A defense.  The risk is the shallow staff.  The 5 starters and Voight are money, but they're 1 injury away from a big problem.  Still, I think they'll contend again.

Season 48 NL East Preview

 

Jacksonville Fake ID's
topoftheworl

The Lineup:  Suddenly, it's a whole new and rebuilding Fake ID's, as a tour of the lineup and where each player came from demonstrates:  Catcher, Rusney Lira , traded from New York; 1B, Wiki Figueroa, traded from Houston; 2B, Arthur Taylor, FA from Jackson; 3B, Emmanuel Fernandez, traded from Austin; SS, Brook Pagnozzi, holdover; LF, Chang-Yong Uchida, traded from Houston; CF, Raimel Arrubarrena, traded from New York, RF, Asdrubel Diaz, traded from Houston.  Mostly guys who were backups on good teams (Houston, New York, Austin) but can hold their own, help make the mwr and do it without getting paid a lot.  Figueroa is the one guy who could have a longer future in JAX, and it's not beyond imagination that he's on the ROY ballot at year-end.

The Staff:  Same story with pitchers only it involves more budget free agents.  top seems to be employing the "pitches are just as important as splits but a lot cheaper" theory of pitcher selection.  He's probably right about that but I fear he may overdone it:  Bengie Estrella's pitches can probably offset splits of 64 to the tune of a 4.50 ERA, but can Rob Strickland's cover up a vR of 45?  Guess that's the fun of it when you're shooting for a close pass of the mwr.

The Leather:  top's teams typically help their pitching a lot with defense; this one, not so much.  SS and CF will be OK-not-great with Pagnozzi and Arrubarrena, but 2B Taylor lost his defensive chops years ago.  The COF spots will probably provide most of the defensive highlights.

Predicting teams that are trying to hit mwr's is tough.  Looks to me like they'll score enough runs to compete pretty well, but they undershot what they need on pitching.  In any event, a tough year ahead in Jacksonville.

Columbus Buckeyes

rdierkers

The Lineup:  Louie Almonte is heading for retirement with 351 HR's and an .820 OPS - pretty spiffy career numbers for an infielder.  He'll be replaced at 3B by either Trayce Zoltan or Jeremie Kent (or both, although I think Zoltan has the edge), likely with no falloff in production.  New signee Omar Deleon will be a welcome addition.  Whether he plays 1B or not, his production basically replaces their 1B production of last year, which was a dead zone (yes, even 99-win teams have holes).  The big engines of the lineup, of course, are LF Eric White (.282/44/104) and RF Keith Jones (.301/45/105).  They squeezed a nice season out of CF Billy O'Sullivan (.790 OPS) so they re-signed him for 2 more.  Looks like he'll platoon in CF again with Ronny Wingo and handle the vR leadoff duties. 

The Staff:  Well, a CY season from Lawrence Morey was certainly a nice bonus for the league-leading (ERA 3.45) staff.  Their front 3 of Rapp, Morey and Viciedo is probably tops in the NL.    They're still auditioning 4th/5th starters and the odds favor incumbent Matt Booker and FA find Stryker Bradley.  They have the late innings well-handled with the elderly-but-still-tough Sam Stock, Freddie Martin and Malachi Carver.  The staff is proof-positive you can get a lot more out of aging rosters than you think.

The Leather:  The Buckeyes tolerate a so-so defense in deference to their runs scored totals.  This comes mostly in the form of Jones doing what comes naturally to a DH in RF (23 bad plays).  But it's a strategic decision, not neglect.  They do get high-level defense at 2B with Rijo (GG last year) and decent play at the other infield spots.  White could be a GG contender in LF if he stays in that spot (he provided what highlights there were at 1B last year in just 400 innings).

It's certainly an older team but I don't see any signs of a dropoff.  If anything, DeLeon could bump runs scored up past 750, and (scary thought) Rapp could be a lot better than he was last year.  

St. Louis A-Bombs

cyben5150

The Lineup:  Some nice budget offseason moves to get a little more punch and a little more cushion over the mwr.  Philip Corsi steps in a 3B - he'll be a defensive upgrade over Dan Tipton.  Tipton, last year's best hitter (.304/28/72), moves to LF in place of the soon-to-retire Jack Hayes.  Hayes probably played 1 season too many, but he ends up with 628 HR's and a likely ticket to the Hall.  Former Fog mainstay Geronimo Posada takes over RF.  Howie DeRosa  seems to specialize in keeping 2B or CF warm on rebuilding teams, and he gets a chance to do that for a couple of years in St. Louis.  Lonnie Taubensee returns at 1B after slamming 42 roundtrippers last year.  This group should be 50-100 runs better than last season's 595.

The Staff:  Last years best starters, Hugh Cheney and Andy Wagner, both returned on new FA contracts.  They, along with RP Toru Jung, were the extent of the good pitching news last year.  This year they'll be the nucleus but they'll have more help.  Nipsey Levis was set to join the rotation but hit a Spring Training injury snag and will sidelined for 40 games or so.  That leaves Rule 5 draftee Jhonatan Altuve and holdovers Mariano Flores and Josmil Bonilla to round out the rotation.  A-Bomb management rolled the dice on the health of relievers Pete Bonham and Everth Torres - both will be big improvements in the 'pen if they can stay on the field.  Nicasio and Coleman didn't do much last year but have before - they're better than journeymen.

The Leather:  The defense was about NL-average last year and should tick up a notch.  The Corsi signing improves them a lot at 3B and Tipton should match or even surpass Hayes' excellent defense (10 + plays) last year.  Paolo Redondo is GG-caliber in CF, SS Lemon is very good, and DeRosa will be an improvement at 2B.  Defense will be a strong point in S48.

They've improved quite a bit at bat and in the field; the pitching staff is potentially better but really relies on the availability of 2 fragile relievers.  All in all they should see a nice jump in wins.  

Cleveland Vikings

klown61455

The Lineup:  The pipeline continues to spit out talent - 3 more lineup cogs to start the season (although all 3 saw some ML action last year).  Catcher Yimi Oliva (S44 #25 pick) looks like he'll be a nice power/on-base combo hitter, especially against lefties.  Not sure exactly where he'll fit onto the 3-way catcher rotation, but he'll be a factor.  2B Darren Pressley was S45's #6 pick.  He looks (ratings-wise) a lot like Jimmy Stairs and wouldn't be a bad bet to follow in his footsteps as a power-hitting, switch-hitting, 2B-playing NL ROY.  RF Jeurys Suarez ($35MM IFA S45) jumped to the Bigs last year after just 724 minor league AB's.  He's another big-time power prospect who will get a lot better over the course of the season.  They still have some lineup holes - Omar Pelaez is subpar for a 1B - but this year's lineup should be a vast improvement over last year's 662-run producer.  

The Staff:  The Vikings' 5 starters last year all had ERA's above 4 last year, and they're bringing them back for another try (it looks like the #5 stater spot will go to Reagan Osborne in place of Cahz Andrews.  Holm, Koplove, and Tejada were rookies, so we don't really know what they are yet.  Wang is 4 seasons into his career, and he looks exactly like a 4.64-ERA pitcher - not bad if he's your #5, big trouble if he's your #1.  The bullpen is a little more talented, but still unpredictable.  Like Sierra, Osborne and Tannehill last year (all ERA's in the 3's), several will pop out good seasons this year.  But we don't know which several.

The Leather:  Too many errors last year (95), but they also turned in 75 good plays.  3B Benitez (GG in S47) is a vacuum cleaner and a bazooka all rolled into one.  It would be worth considering playing him at SS if they had another good 3B sitting around.  Pelaez makes up for his offensive shortcoming somewhat in the field (GG S46).  SS Mulholland (.977, 12 good plays) was solid as a rookie.  The 3 big-hitting newcomers will be OK in the field, nothing special.

Cleveland looks like the team that will improve a lot in the East.  Adequate defense, much-improved hitting, but a big question mark over the staff.  They won't threaten Columbus this year, but they're going the right direction.

Season 48 NL West Preview

 Next up, the NL West, where defending champ San Fran has now won the Division 8 times running.  

Honolulu Luau Dogs

rockydawg07

The Lineup:  Time to adjust to life after Brad Terry.  Terry seems headed for retirement with a .367 career OBP and 454 homers.  That OBP is important because it's 72 points above the Dogs' team OBP last year.  Even without Terry they have plenty of power (3B Langerhans, RF Bell, LF Lindblom and ? Howard can all easily top 30+, but they're all challenged as on-basers: Bell led the group last year with .331).  Their catchers are defense-oriented, and they're carrying 4 shortstops ranging from "I can hit some but I'm not really a SS (both Lee and Wiggington)" to "Can't hit at all but could win a GG (Tejada)".  Rule V'er Teodoro Hollands is kind of an interesting power prospect and may be in the running for the fulltime 1B job.  

There's talent here but it's all power.  Another rough year near the bottom of the NL in runs scored.

The Staff:  It's much more optimistic on the pitching side.  Start with young star B.C. Querecuto, who's fashioned 2 straight sub-3.00 ERA seasons.  He's more than capably seconded by Tucker Hood, who has rather quietly put together 10 straight seasons with ERA's in the 3's (and 215+ innings pitched in 9 of them).  The other rotation spots are up in the air, with rookies Raymond Griffin, Bo Hutton, and Dellin Hernandez challenging Yamil Desoto and Marco Smith.  The 9th inning gets a boost with Andrew Lane signing on.  He can't itch enough to be that everyday closer but he can still get those important 2-3 outs every third day.  Looks like they're going to start the season with 10 pitchers and then add 1 more (probably) reliever.

The Leather:  With the 4 SS's they can play some interesting configurations.  They were sure-handed last year (.988) but only 62/42 on good/bad plays, so the SS quartet should improve that number.  I can't really tell if they've settled on an everyday SS, but Tejada could contend for a Gold Glove.  It's not like any of the others would make any difference in the on-base department.

Interesting team in the power arena, but they have to find a way to get more guys on base.  Pitching will be OK and the defense improved but you can only go so far without scoring runs.

Scottsdale Cardinals

finnski

The Lineup:  Here's how our bias for power works: you get a regular HBD owner who's unfamiliar with this world to look at the respective lineups of Scottsdale and Honolulu.  Just a quick scan...a few minutes...and ask them to tell you which team scored more runs last year.  10 to 1 says they'll pick Honolulu.  Yep, the Cards hit 77 fewer homers than the Luau Dogs and outscored them by 65.  The difference that matters more than power?  201 more hits and walks, translating to a .317 OBP vs. Honolulu's .295.  Not that the Cards won't have their challenges.  They didn't re-sign their best on-baser (Darrin Shermann), didn't sign any free agents, and continued the youth movement they started last year.  They certainly have some ML-caliber bats on the field: Cameron Sears, Chip Skole, Doug Cook, Darryl Hennessey (despite having one of the lowest vR's I've ever seen for an everyday player), but they're average-to-below-average Ml players.  I think their runs are going to fall off some this year.

The Staff:  Scottsdale pitching of late has been Walker, Timmons, Mathis and a bunch of nobodies.  James Appel could well add a 4th formidable arm.  The S44 #9 pick got hit pretty hard in a 100-inning audition last year, but I think he has the stuff to be the #1 of this rotation.  Sal Callaway is essentially a 28-yo rookie who will get the 5th starter spot.  If they get really lucky, he'll stay healthy, give them 200 innings, and the HBD gods will look more at his pitches than his splits.  Lot of luck involved there, but it's plausible they could be rolling out 5 pretty good starters.  Francisco Peguero is the best talent in the bullpen; they probably should try to get him up to 140 innings and try to hide everyone else.

The Leather:  They have 1 outstanding defender - Defending Gold Glove 1B Yonder Guzman - and a bunch of guys who are dinkin' around with their phones when they're in the field.  115 errors and 36 bad plays...they need to rethink this approach.

I was pretty optimistic about Scottsdale in last year's preview (I don't know, maybe just feeling nostalgic for the days of Trammel, Herzog, Encarnacion and 250+ homers), and was disappointed, so this year I'm dumping on them in the hopes it produces a big turnaround.

Arizona Altitude

canadadry

The Lineup:  They've made a couple of nice additions to what was a pretty good lineup last year.  Dario Chong came over in a late-S47 trade and gives them a legit 30-HR COF, and this off-season they got C Yovani Avila from Jacksonville.  He wears out righties and will likely be the vR part of a platoon.  LF Glen Davey really blossomed in his 2nd season - .275/39/103 (not bad for a 15th round selection).  CF Darrell Ryan continues to hit better than his ratings say he can.  Junior Burawa is a plus hitter at SS.  They have their weak spots for sure - most notably, they're going to need way better than a .640 OPS from a guy who will demand $8MM a year pretty soon (3B Alvarado).  But they look like they'll improve on last year's 700 runs.

The Staff:  They're likely to get rebounds from Mark Wallace (5.52 ERA vs. career 4.10), Wladimir Mercado (4.14 in Salt Lake vs. 3.53 career) and Edgmer Gil (4.84 vs. career 4.03) - their 3 big acquisitions from last year who obviously all bombed.  I'm also pretty optimistic about Albert Ortiz.  He was S44's #6 pick, but got shellacked in his debut last year.  Don't pencil him in for any Cy Youngs, but 180 innings of 4.00 ERA wouldn't be a shock.  Beyond that there are some guys who will have the occasional good season, but none they can depend on.  

The Leather:  It's a sub-par defense.  Burawa is really the only defender who plays his position very well - they get a lot of "-" plays, presumably from low-range fielders like CF Ryan.  Hard to fix everything at once.

Certainly they had some bad luck in the pitching department last year.  I expect a nice rebound there plus a little bump in runs scored.

San Francisco Fog

pfontaine

The Lineup:  Here we were about to rave about SF signing the best player in free agency (Phillip Kennedy) and BOOM!  Down he goes for the season with the silly forearm nerve irritation injury.  I don't know if my calculations are correct,  but I think it's possible Kennedy could be back for late-playoff action should the Fog make it that far.  Until then they'll have to limp along with $14MM black hole in their payroll and an improvised lineup.  The Fog really depend on packing the bases to score runs and they have 2 of the best on-basers in the biz in 1B Francisco Guerrero and RF Del Perez, but they're sorely short on power (hence the Kennedy ink).  Catcher Almadova has been their best power guy recently, but he's 34 and the power rating is sliding.  Hipolito Francisco appears to be the vR portion of a CF platoon (with Tyson Sample) - he could put up 15-20 jacks in 400 AB's in a good year.  Jeurys Vargas was a Sep 1 FA signing and his power bat probably gets first look in LF.

The Staff:  One could look at SF's decline in pitching numbers from S46 to S47 and assume it's age-related (after all, their mainstays Martin, Doubrant and Marks are 36, 37 and 38) but that's not the case.  Their top dogs were all right around their career ERA marks (except for Pena who came in a full run below his career number).  The problem was their  previously-reliable down-staff guys Peterson, Pelaez, Wilkinson and Booth, who all blew up to ERA's a run or more over their career averages.  That's 4 unusually terrible seasons from guys who threw a total of 600 innings in S46 (Booth was a starter for TOR in S46).  Is that going to happen again?  Nope.  They'll be closer to career averages this year, which will knock a chunk out of that S46 ERA of 4.05.

The Leather:  They're among the better defensive teams in the NL.  No terrible fielders anywhere and A+ at 1B (Guerrero), 3B (Puffer) and SS (Castillo).  CF will be improved over Valenzuela's play.

Well, the Fog has probably already suffered the worst break of the season for any team, but they'll still probably win the Division.  Maybe not in dominating fashion - runs might be a little scarce - but the pitching and defense will  be improved - and good enough to go deep into the playoffs.

Season 48 AL East Preview

 

Buffalo Ruffalos

gman981981

The Lineup: 

There’s some talent here at the major league level, but let’s be clear – Buffalo’s Triple-A team is better than the major league club, so everything is about the future. That future isn’t far away, though.

S43’s #17 pick, Earl Espino, is ready to take over at 3^rd base, while Earl Haynes is set to be a middle-of-the-lineup force for years. Rangy 2B Rusty Wood looks like the kind of interesting player who will make a few All Star teams, while Alex Lewis should offer thump from the left side.  

If all these players come up soon, they’ll form a solid core to complement the pieces already in place. Rookie Catcher Radley Roundtree delivered a .910 OPS in part-time duty, and he should be a viable cog going forward. Rico Azocar and Deivi Alberto have 30-hr power. There are pieces to build on here. 

The Staff: 

There are some decent arms in the majors – Hades Silva, Louis Stein, and Tony Bolling will all do the job for a contending team – but again, the real prizes are in the minors, especially the low minors. At AAA, P.T. Ramirez, Fausto Garces, Melky Elias and Keith Gray are all ready to contribute at the big league level, but to find future stars, you have to look lower.

High A is the home of some real potential, as $34 million IFA Kaito Jang should be ready to front a rotation by S51-52, and S47 No. 5 overall pick Brennan Farquhar projects as a really interesting player, one of those bang-for-the-buck low stam/high dur long man types who can get 150 innings either via 5-inning starts or through multi-inning appearances out of the pen. Once they’re ready to join the solid core Buffalo has assembled, this could be a quality group. 

The Leather: 

Assuming that these Triple-A players are coming up at Game 21 or thereabouts, then the 2B wood is the most compelling, with his 98 range. If they don't make the callups, then there are a few adequate gloves here, nothing special. 

That "Interesting if the promotions happen" concept is a fair summation of this entire team: If the Triple-A players come up, then there's some very intriguing potential here, a team that could be competitive near-instantly. If they don't, and Buffalo holds off another year, then this is a forgettable 68-win-team waiting to happen, and let's all just fast forward until the next season of the rebuild.

Toledo Walleye

pak4427

The Lineup:  

There’s a lot of top-end ability here, which is no surprise for a team that’s won 90+ games the past two seasons.

This team is a matchup nightmare; the three best bats are switch-hitters, and there are strong lefty and righty bats throughout for strong balance. They’re led by switch-hitting 3B Alex Reid, a 93-overall three-time All-Star. S47 was his best year yet, putting up 45 doubles to go with his usual 45 homers and 26 steals. 89-overall OF Donald Ritz is another switch hitter with line drive ability and good power, a guaranteed .850-plus OPS even in a down year. Napoleon Rogers has right-handed pop, 23-year-old switch Garabez Fontana should hit .300 and OBP .360, and second-year 2B Leandro Ramirez will kill lefties. They hit .267 as a team, their .788 OPS last season was fourth in the majors, and they'll probably put out a similar attack this year. A lot to like in this lineup. 

The Staff:  

The top-end thunder is evident on the mound as well, where the Walleye have a true ace in Paul Kinney. Kinney is going to the Hall of Fame someday; until then, pencil him in for 225 innings and an ERA right around 3.00. There’s a solid No. 2 behind him in lefty Andy Cobb. After that, though? The staff tails off, and the back end of the rotation is nothing special.

The bullpen, too, is a weak spot. The loss of top reliever Pete Bonham, who signed with St. Louis in the offseason, is going to hurt. It’s not a bad group – Peter Yosida was signed to replace Bonham, and he'll help somewhat -- but it’s not on par with the rest of what is otherwise a pennant-contending club. 

The Leather:  

Rogers is a LF – a good one – playing 1B, so it’s no surprise he won a Gold Glove, with 25 ++ plays. Reid is an excellent third baseman, and Fontana plays a standout left field. Bill Treadway is just OK in center, but starting catcher Bernie Guzman is more than adequate behind the plate, and backup Polin Martin is a defensive stud. This is a strong defensive team, one of the better ones in the league. 

All in all, the lineup’s great, the defense is strong, they have a true ace, and the bullpen won’t kill you. This is a good team, probably the division winner. But it may be just behind the AL's best. 

Boston Beer Bellies

torrone

The Lineup:

 Boston brings back essentially the same team as S47’s 87-game winner, and after winning 93 the year before, that’s not a bad strategy. They had the third-highest batting average in the majors, and while the power wasn’t there to match it, this is definitely a team that puts the ball in play and uses its home ballpark to the fullest. First baseman Mike Darwin paces the offense (.915 OPS last season), and he gets help from the quality bats of C Tomas Bazardo, and the IF/OF tandem of Ricardo Castro and Melvin Lloyd. 2B Francisco Telis raked righties, and SS Wilking Guerrero hits very well for his position. It’s a solid, high-on base offense that isn’t going to match some of the others in this division when it comes to power and extra-base ability, but certainly holds its own.

 

The Staff:

The pitching does enough, but there’s little here that stands out. Yohan Lugo fronts the staff, and he pitched to a nice 3.76 ERA last season. Harry Martin outdid him with a 3.44, but the rest of the starting unit wasn’t pretty, with Russell Howell, Jerrod Gillaspie, David Rosado and Jesus Guapo combining for over 686 innings of 4.85 ERA work.

That said, help is on the way. The VERY interesting George Griffin could be a 21^st-game callup and would probably be the immediate No. 1, pushing Lugo and Martin into more appropriate mid-rotation roles, and Boston should be able to cobble a better 4/5 out of the remaining options. 

The Leather:

Defensively, Boston is good, and also bad. They are rangy as hell - 92 ++ plays – but also make a ton of errors, as their .983 fielding percentage shows, tied for second-worst in the majors. In theory, you’d rather have the range than the glove, but with 102 errors on the season, this is a club that makes its pitchers get an extra out for every hit they take away.

Boston is a solid team in every phase of the game, with strengths in contact and range to make up for deficiencies in other areas. Yet there just isn’t quite enough pitching, even with likely addition of Griffin, to vault them past that roughly 90-win range at best, and that probably leaves them just behind Toledo in the race for the division title. 

Trenton Traders

gogogadget

The Lineup: 

This lineup mashed 307 homers last year enroute to a 3^rd-in-the-majors .801 OPS, so it’s clear where the strength of the team lies. Led by thumping catcher Yasmil Cayones, pretty much everyone in the lineup has 30-homer potential, at minimum. Cayones is part of a C/1B/DH/RF rotation with fellow monster bats Chris Bruske and Eugenio Martin and Bo Stewart, all of whom can hit 30-40 in a full season. They’ll get a full season out of last year’s midyear pickup Engel Bastardo at first, and he should get on base in addition to the expected 35 HR output. 2B Brandon Francoeur hits 30 a year. The CF, Yorman Martin, could hit 30. LF Joey Levis should hit 30. You get the idea.

These guys sacrifice defense for all this power, and there’s no speed here, at all -- Trenton finished last in the majors in steals - but the premise is to bash their way to victory with a bunch of beer-league sluggers, and offensively, it definitely works. 

The Staff:

Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Or in this case, the negative play or the bad ERA? Hard to tell what really causes what with this group, if the struggles are all on the arms or if their defense has just let them down. Chances are, it’s a bit of both. Whatever the cause, with a 4.97 ERA last year, the pitching is an obvious weak spot. The ace is 27-year-old Vasco Alonso, and he’s a worthy No. 1 who used an excellent changeup to post a 3.86 ERA last year. 

Midseason acquisition Addison Jaime will unquestionably help stabilize the middle innings over a full season. Free agent signing Jimmy Miller, who posted a 3.34 ERA last year for San Juan and arrives on a five-year deal for roughly $10 mil annually, should help. Same is true for Gerald Gilheeney, one of several Long man/tandem starter types who should give this staff legitimate versatility. If they want, they could run any number of rotation combinations out there, from openers to tandems to a 3-man to a series of bullpen games – it’ll all work with this group, and that’s rare to say. But even with that versatility, pitching is definitely still not a strength of this team. Not expecting a 4.97 ERA this year, but it’s tough to bank on too much improvement, because… 

The Leather:

…the defense stinks. Trenton’s .983 fielding percentage was tied for the world’s second-lowest mark. 65 -minus plays was also the second worst. Their catchers only caught 25 % of baserunners, which was fifth-worst. Even fifth-worst in passed balls. No way around it, this is a bad defensive team. The whole squad is something of an interesting thought experiment – just cram the bats in however they fit, and see what works. 

A lot of RF/1B innings are given to huge sluggers, and to make it work, you see things like 1b Gerald Gentry – a lefty thrower – getting 22 starts and 192 innings at 2b. Last season they at least had a gold glove-caliber SS, Guillermo Tejada, to keep it all together, but he’s departed for Honolulu, without an obvious replacement as yet (Maybe Martin moves over from CF? He’s the closest on the current roster). Hard to say.

 

However Trenton goes, it’ll be fascinating. They obviously hit a ton, and they sacrifice in other areas to maximize that. They should be better than last season’s 73 wins, at least a .500 team. If they’re better than that, it may show some interesting things about how WIS really works.  

Season 48 AL South Preview

Season 47 saw the Richmond High Rollers take the division with 90 wins despite being outscored, the Florida Poison Dart Frogs finished a distant 2^nd despite a .522 expected win percentage, the Montgomery Scotts 5 year run atop the division came to a sudden end and New Orleans continued their rebuild by snagging the 2^nd pick in this year’s draft.

Florida Poison Dart Frogs

groth911

The Lineup:  Led by former #1 overall pick Alexander Picket and his 38 HRs 105 RBIs, on base machine Ezdra Rodriguez .408 OBP 75 SBs 118 R and consistently solid David Andujar 32 HRs 121 RBIs the Poison Dart Frogs finished 20^th in the league in runs scored.  Free Agents Glendon Sheffield brings a career .730 OPS with him and 35-year-old Willie Germen will try and return to the majors this season after spending last season in AAA.  His career .530 SLG should help this lineup hit more than the 200 HRs they did last season.  

The Staff:  After last seasons Team ERA of 3.93 placed them 11^th overall the team seemingly blew up the rotation.  Back as the only returning starting pitcher is Matt Owen and his 3-17 record.  Rene Jenkins moves over from Philadelphia and 4 solid but unspectacular middle relievers in Kurt Menses, Erick Duncan, B.C. Martinez & Tony Ramsay join the squad that looks to piece together innings possibly using tandem rotations.  Vets Chaz Ross and Marcell Calixte will continue to anchor the bullpen and are coming off very solid seasons.  There is talent on this staff but juggling it could either pay off big or explode in an unpleasant way.  This will be an interesting situation to watch. 

The Leather:   Hack Palmer and his noodle arm was a liability behind the plate for the Frogs who had the 23^rd best fielding percentage last season.  In the field Noel Cruz, Wayne Diaz and Archie Klein are all capable of being excellent defenders though Klein’s arm can be erratic.  Sheffield and Abraham Tropeano can also be plus defenders depending on where they play.

 The Poison Dart Frogs went 12-29 in one run games last season which contributed to their underperforming record.  There is talent in the minors, but my guess is they will look to bounce back using the patchwork staff they have assembled and compete in this very mediocre division.  

New Orleans Voodoo

bigmattr

The Lineup:  The Voodoo were more like Doodoo at the plate last season finishing 30^th in runs scored with a lack luster .698 team OPS.  They were not good on the basepaths and they did not hit many homeruns but… they started bringing in talent with trades for Peaches Eierman (who loved Bourbon Street and raked a 1.041 OPS after arriving) and Harry Diaz.  This offseason they added more offense with DH Tim Jeter 28 HRs 101 RBIs, Ervin Payton 395 career HRs and Dillon Mateo career .355 OBP.  These additions and the possible call ups of Santiago Pujols & Andres Pizzaro have the future looking brighter in the Big Easy!

The Staff:  Again, season 47 was Doodo!  31^st overall in team ERA at 5.06.  That will not be the story this season.  Nori Zhang and Bud Benson will begin the season 1 & 2 in the rotation but if phenom Saul Santana gets the call he will be the true ace this staff is looking for.  Eugene Blake and a cast of veteran arms round out the staff that will look to make a leap forward after a seven year rebuild. There is talent in the minors (Jed Sweeney, Daniel Hanrahan) that may be another year away but could help now. Tough decisions ahead for the Voodoo.

The Leather:  Keeping with their Season 47 theme the Voodoo stunk up the field with a .984 team fielding percentage which was good for 26^th overall.  Brad Tomberlin has shelves full of minor league Gold Gloves as a centerfielder but cannot stay in the lineup in the Bigs.  Humberto Almora, Harry Diaz & Enerio Guerrero can all provide plus defense depending on where they play. Pujols & Pizzaro also have the look of good players in the field.  Like their offense and the pitching, the Voodoo look to be a much-improved team in the field this year. 

Is the long wait finally over in New Orleans?  The organization is dripping with talent at the plate and on the mound.  They have talent in the big leagues, talent ready to get called up and more talent to make trades to fill in the blanks if they need to.  In a division ripe for the taking will this be the year for New Orleans? 

Montgomery Scotts

silentpadna

The Lineup:  Despite playing in a hitter friendly ballpark the Scotts finished 22^nd in runs scored.  Former #1 overall draft pick Ryan Norman acquired in last seasons blockbuster trade had a respectable .829 OPS and figures to be a fixture in the lineup going forward.  William Magee paced the team with 34 HRs & 116 RBIs and at 27 is another reason for hope in Montgomery.  If this offense has a strength, it is that the Scotts did steal 241 bases good for 2^nd overall but that did not translate into scoring. The rest of the lineup looks like you would expect from a team in the middle of a rebuild.

The Staff:  Matt Baker, Kenneth Ward & Keith Court return to the rotation for a team that finished 20^th in Team ERA last season. Garrett Hoover is a solid long reliever who had an outstanding Season 47 and will look to build on that.  Veteran Mark Pettitte returns after a bulldog year for the Scotts.  Not a lot of exciting players on the Big-League staff as the “process” rolls along.

The Leather:  Unlike the offense and pitching the Scotts excelled in the field last season finishing 6^th overall in fielding percentage and making 104 plus plays.  Glen Lawrence & former Gold Glove SS  Bartolo Lee are both great defensive players who can play all over the diamond and shine with glove and arm!  William Magee won a gold glove in LF and Addison Lopez, Gabe Huff and Ryan Norman are plus defenders in their own right.  The Defense will remain a strength this season.

 The rebuild is in full swing this season. There is plenty of in the minors, but we doubt much of it will see the big leagues this season. It could be a long season in Montgomery but with social distancing the fans can simply tune into a different game 

Richmond High Rollers

bjc30

The Lineup:  They finished 13^th in the league in runs scored. B.J. Kirby 31 HRs 100 RBIs & Nelson Malone 35 HRs 99 RBIs carried the middle of the order while Turner Fletcher & Destin Williamson scored 89 runs apiece.  Late season call ups Chili Antonelli, Erik Barden & Garabez Flores appear serviceable and Rookie Wolf Tolleson looks like an on base machine that will set the table in Richmond for years to come.  The offense looks to be slightly improved over last season especially if Haywood Brinson and his plus bat gets the call to the show this season.

The Staff:  Finished last season 21^st in overall ERA at 4.28.  They have no “Ace” but plenty of quality arms in the starting rotation led by Shigetoshi Bond, Benji Franco and 2^nd year player Midre Miro they look to be solid but unspectacular again this season.  The bullpen is led by stellar middle reliever Thomas Miranda who looks to be coming into his own after winning Rookie of the Year.  With another year of growth, much like the offense, this staff looks to be slightly improved.

The Leather:  A .987 team fielding percentage placed them 12^th overall in season 47.  Damaso Vazquez is a plus defender at SS while Pedro Mujica and Turner Fletcher both exhibit good range and excellent gloves.  Zephyr Burke is a plus with his pitch calling but his arm is only serviceable.

The High Rollers were anything but that during the offseason.  They signed no Major League free agents and instead built from within.  All in all, this is an improved squad that will be in the fight to win this very winnable division this season.