pfontaine
SEA 41: 91-71, won Division, lost on Round 2 to Pawtuckett
Song Resembling Season 41: If Today Was Your Last Day by Nickelback
Four Key Moves That Make SF a WS Contender This Year
Since its last big playoff push in Seasons 32 and 34, the Fog did a fairly quick rebuild from Seasons 35-39, moved back into contention in Seasons 40 and 41, and this year completed the moves to make it a serious WS threat. Here were their 4 key moves:
1. Traded for Kirk Marks. They actually did this one around mid-season last year (and Marks thrived in the 2nd half), and it gives them, if not an ace, a #1 in an excellent rotation. Crazy stat: SF's 5 SP's this year ALL had ERA's under 3.00 during their stints in SF last year (Marks' ERA in Chicago pushed his ERA for the full season above 3.00).
2. Rebuilt the pen. Valdes is money in the 9th, of course, but needs a couple of good setup guys. They lost Carver and Mullens in FA, so they went strong after Jeimer Pena (5 years, $40MM). But just as important may have been the lower-profile, 2-year $5.5MM deal for Donald Helling (career 3.68 ERA).
3. Moved on from Harvey Tracy. My guess is Tracy wanted more than a 1-year deal, so the Fog wisely declined to enter into a contract for a year or 2 or 3 of steeply declining ratings. I thought they'd promote Francisco Guerrero, and they still might, but for now it looks like they'll go with either Yamil Cairo or a combination of Cairo and Lou Trammel at 1B. I quibble a bit with the price for Cairo, as his career OPS of .878 is inflated by 3 (of a total of 5) years in COL and he can't catch or throw. But if he falters they can turn to Trammel (he won't get much playing time in RF) or bring up Guerrero.
4. Traded for Colin Morel. In these days of HBD, when offensive production has finally declined to nearly the levels of real-life MLB, an infielder who can get on base at .368 is an incredible weapon. He's not a GG at 2B but will handle it well defensively. The move allows Rich Kohn to move to 3B - a better spot for his diminishing range but still-strong arm - and possibly platoon with Chip Puffer.
Prognosis
I think they're at least 3 or 4 games better...maybe more...and with Marks, a more dangerous playoff threat. This is the NL team most likely to knock off Jacksonville. 96 wins and Division Title.
rockydawg07
SEA 41: 90-72
Song Resembling Season 41: Baby Come Close by Smokey Robinson
Honolulu boasts one of Hobbs' top power hitters, 1B Brad Terry, who has topped 50 HR's in each of the last 3 seasons. Outside of Terry, though, the average-ish offense struggles. CF's Vic Campos and Javier Valenzuela are both terrific in the field, but neither has developed a particularly strong bat. C Giomar Almadova flashes great power but has been inconsistent, and I fear his .376 OBP last year was a career high by a wide margin. The Dogs traded 3B Carlos Polonia in the off-season...OK, but Albert Tejada isn't the 3B answer with either the bat or the glove. FA Dallas Sever is likely to be the one net plus in the lineup this season.
Honolulu proved my bearish prediction wrong last year due to their heroic pitching efforts (3.54 ERA - 4th), but when you look at it you have to conclude that everything broke their way. They only used 11 pitchers the whole season, meaning they had no injuries or at least only very minor ones. The worst ERA on the team was Japhet Buchholz' 4.21, and I guarantee he's not the worst pitcher on this team. Of the 9 pitchers from last year who are still with the team, ALL were at or below their career ERA's. Their defense (.987, 72/25 on +/-) does indeed help, but a 3.53 team ERA ain't happening again.
Prognosis
Predictions of course, are a risky business and I'm worst than most. So I may be guaranteeing a big season for the Luaua Dogs by predicting a fall to 80 wins.
tk21775
SEA 41: 76-86
Song Resembling Season 41: What's Left Standing by Hot Rod Circuit
Salem had a 10-year run if winning seasons until the last 2, and this off-season was the clear beginning of a rebuild. What did they do and where do they stand.
Trade #1: 2B Arthur Taylor and P Jean Carlos Posada to Montgomery for David Seneca and Elrod Parkers. Posada, of course, has been one of Hobbs' top pitchers (although not prolific) for 13 seasons, and should be good for another 3 or 4. In my view Taylor has disappointed - broke in with a bang, winning the NL ROY, and hasn't topped .800 OPS since. Seneca was last year's highest-paid IFA (in part because he showed up late in the season) and projects to be a high batting average/high OBP type OF. He's already ML-ready or close; the only real question is how much improvement is still there given he was a 20-yo IFA. Parkers is a better-than decent throw-in - he'll be a LR or 4th/5th starter for awhile in the Majors.
I like this deal for Salem - so many preseason trades for obvious rebuilders look like give-ups - they got a solid return and an excellent future ML OF here.
Trade #2: SP Ivan Beltre to San Juan for Dave Nathan. Wow, nice job getting a pretty good 1st-rounder for a 38-yo pitcher, although Beltre clearly has a good season or 2 left. Nathan (#15 overall last year) was one of top power guys in last year's draft...looks to me like a sure bet that his power develops fully (think 40 HR's) although he might only be a .240 BA/.310 OBP type. His glove won't make it to 2B caliber but he could turn into a plus defender at 1B or LF.
The Witch Hunters still have an old with a fairly high payroll, so some work to do to skinny that down. But they've gotten off to a great start in rebuilding a productive minor-league pipeline.
Prognosis
67 wins.
finnski
SEA 41: 72-90
Song Resembling Season 41: Brown-Eyed Handsome Man by Chuck Berry; OK, no particular Scottsdale or Season 41 reference, but it's a baseball (catch the last verse)
The Cards have gotten a tough break already this season, with their prime FA acquisition Lawrence Hannity going on the DL for 60+ days. This leaves their opening-day roster remarkably similar to last year's...can they improve with the same players?
Maybe.
Last year's 657-run offense (11th) was marked by some uncharacteristically bad seasons. 2B Howie Lee's .768 OPS was 85 points off his career mark. Trever Fick, after years of being a backup , finally got his chance to be the everyday LF and fell flat. 3B Phillip Corsi fell a little under his career norm. RF, while not worse than the recent past, was a total mess. I don't know if there's cause to be overly optimistic, any or all of those guys could improve markedly this year.
The pitching staff was probably a bigger mess (4.53 ERA), and it probably is what it is. #1 Billy Walker had his best season (13 wins, 3.97 ERA), hybrid MR/SP Paul Tanaka sparkled with a 3.22 ERA in 33 starts, and closer Ronald Hoover converted 39 of 43 save opportunities, so there's some room for optimism. But there were way too many ERA's in the 4's and 5's, and for many of those arms it looks like more of the same.
Prognosis
Since their WS trip in Season 34, the Cards have been consistently in the 70's in wins, and I can't see them brealing out of that trend this year. 71 wins.
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