rourke
SEA 41: 90-72, won Division, advanced to
2nd Round and lost to Boston
Song resembling Season 41: Small Differences by Sylvie
One of the more baffling statistical outliers of recent seasons was Oakland's incredible 41-19 record in 1-run games last year. That luck, efficiency, or both took a .500 team (scored 713 runs, allowed 723) and propelled it to 90 wins and the West Title.
The A's AL-leading staff suffered the FA loss of about 400 quality innings in the form of Derrick Dawkins', Bernie Gonzalez', and Anthony Paulino's departures. They replaced the innings with more or less similar quality by signing Mark Cromer and Christian Nakamura; I'd think at some point this season they'll also have to promote Season 36 #8 Luther Padden. The staff seems to be in good shape.
The 713-run offense needs some help, but I don't know how they get it. Given the run-suppressing nature of the ballpark, it seems 1B Marmol, 2B Harang, 3B Langerhans, super-utility Haren, and RF Olmos (led the team with an .861 OPS last year) are all producing pretty well. Season 37's #1 pick (9 overall) Peter Stockton will almost certainly get the call early, either to man LF or take CF and push Paolo Ordonez to LF.
FA signee Hawk Christians will add a little pop at C, but is primarily the type of ace signal-caller Oakland has preferred in recent years.
I can't argue with how they're putting together the lineup, but it still looks like 720 runs. Also as befitting the park, their defense helps out the staff quite a bit (100/24 on +/- plays, .986 fielding %).
Prognosis
I like the team, but everything about it says ".500," and there's no way they're winning 41 1-run games again. 81-81.
werniss
SEA 41: 84-78
Song resembling Season 41: We Will Rock You by Queen
Colorado has a monster offense, right?
1014 runs (1st)
277 HR's (1st)
.869 OPS (1st)
How about on the road...AWAY from Coors:
111 HR's (7th)
.748 (13th)
Colorado has lousy pitching, right?
888 Earned runs allowed (last)
How about AWAY from Coors?
321 Earned runs allowed (2nd)
Does this suggest that HBD park effects are a little overstated?
The HoH re-signed their own free agents other than Kelvim Hasegawa and Albert Hernandez, and they replaced Hernandez with Edgar Jiminez - should be an upgrade.
They were also active in the trade market and no deal was bigger than the acquisition of Brian Neill, a 2nd-round draft pick and fairly ordinary-looking, light-hitting SS going nowhere in the Kansas City organization. Why?
Because Colorado SS's were historically bad last year. Orber Brantley committed 41 errors and 20 bad plays at SS, and Vic Meulens chipped in 5 more of each. Neill could get 10-12 + plays and will cut the errors at least in half - huge upgrade. And they still get Brantley's bat in the lineup at either 3B or LF.
Juan Martinez returned to form (as predicted) with a 3.94 ERA in 162 IP, although his 2.22 ERA on the road is more indicative of how he pitched. Sam Stock posted his usual sterling numbers, but Aurelio Duran faltered a bit to a 4.14 ERA.
I'd like to see Colorado bring back Hasegawa (or a similar LF) for 1 more campaign in the mountains, as they really need the offense and have already shored up pitching and defense. It'll take some salary-cap gymnastics, but it would be worth it to see Hasegawa get the all-time doubles record (he needs 37 to top Lewis Gilkey's 632.
Prognosis
Better team than last year's model with improved pitching and D (especially), although the offense may fall off some. 2 more wins to 86, but not quite enough for the Division.
iceman67
SEA 41: 83-79
Song resembling Season 41: Hotel California by The Eagles: since nobody knows what it means, no one can argue the connection. And I love the Felder/Walsh guitar duo at the tend.
Coming off 2 semi-historic defensive efforts (227 + plays over 2 seasons) that did produce a playoff appearance, where do the Crue turn now in a division that seems up for grabs?
For a team with such a good defense (and pitchers' park), LA actually scores a lot of runs - 801 last year, putting them just a hair below the AL average. DH Jed Tallet (.273/48/110), C Moe Morgan (.297/33/107), and RF Clint Susac (.285/26/104) handle a chunk of the run production while LF Yoervis DeJesus (.283, 102 runs) and 1B Dillon Mateo (.363 OBP, 94 runs) are the primary table-setters. DeJesus and Mateo, along with 3B Jose Rosa, are also pretty nifty thieves (35, 31 and 32 steals out of an AL 2nd-best 171). So they can slug with most teams and also small-ball you when the bats get cold.
The rotation (Ludwick, Bako, Alomar, Puffer, and Cornelius) is largely a testament to the efficacy of pitching ratings...or maybe a test thereof as Alomar and Puffer are new to the rotation and Cornelius is a 26-yo rookie. I have to label the bullpen as "extremely" suspect - LA brought back 39-yo Wil Gray and 40-yo Al Troncoso for what's likely to be a total of 50 innings of work that worsens as the season progresses. One bullpen bright spot could be 28-yo rookie and DITR Murray Brooks, who at worst can soak up a lot of innings and could turn out to be pretty good.
The most interesting aspect of this well-rounded team remains the defense, which recorded 107 + plays. 2B Tony Acosta (28 + plays and 2 consecutive GG's) and CF Desi Cespedes (24 + plays and 3 straight GG's) are the rock-star defenders although Rosa, Mateo and DeJesus also had double-figure + plays.
Prognosis
I don't think they're appreciably better than last year's squad, but the Season 41 version got pretty unlucky with a 16-27 mark in 1-run games. If that reverted to something like a still-unheroic 22-21, that's 89 wins and Division Crown.
weeback
SEA 41: 76-86
Song resembling Season 41: Future Bright by Jordan Sandhu, Bunty Bains, The Boss
The Desperados' strategy seems to be to mix their rising stars like Greg Stock, Willie Taylor, and Einar Vargas with budget free agents on short (mostly 1-year contracts) and hope that the sum adds up to more than the parts. It was reasonably successful last year, producing a 7-win improvement. If they can beat that improvement a little this year, we might have a 4-team race in the West.
Stock is the undisputed superstar and he really delivered last year, OPS'ing .900...and he should have won the 3B GG (.987 % and 22 + plays to winner Hanley Chase's .987 and 18...how does that happen?). Taylor and Vargas both stepped up on their sophomore seasons - Taylor with a .918 OPS and Vargas with a 3.76 ERA in 208 IP).
They might be joined this year by Season 40 #1 overall Eddie Fonville - he only has 2 pro years and wouldn't be a great hitter yet, but could more than hold his own now at 2B, 3B or CF. All-in-all, it probably would be a positive move, but he might benefit with a AAA season, especially under the tutelage of new AAA RF Jin-Chi Itou.
Who knows how to predict what the new crop of aging FA's will do. New 1B Branden Clarkson will have to hustle to beat the performance of last year's 1B Jacob Sheldon (.817 OPS and 19+ plays), but he certainly could do it. I like the new SS tandem of Vega and Suzuki to out-pick last year's SS's, but I'm not as sanguine about the prospects for 41-yo Derrick Dawkins (but he was cheap).
Prognosis
I think Vegas is the least predictable of the AL West combatants...I guess I could see them falling below last year's win total or winning 90 if all of their youngsters have great seasons AND a couple of vets catch lightning one more time. I'm going to be a little romantic and say they get into the mix for the AL West title, but fall a little short with 85 wins.
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