dbreez
SEA 41: 83-79, won Division, lost to Pawtuckett in Round 1
Song Summing Up Season 41: Lost Opportunity by Queen
New owner dbreez immediately began the re-making of the Helena (formerly Tacoma) franchise by trading off Carlos Validivia, Alex Vargas, Colin Morel, Niko Ryan, and Edgmer Gil. What's left and where do they go from here?
Many of the dividends of the trade frenzy - 3B Fergie Schmidt, 2B Willie Manto, OF's Dario Chong and Orlando Nunez, and pitcher Gil Clemens - are decent prospects already in the majors, and not just low-level mwr-scrapers.
And the big plum of the J'Ville trade - Lorenzo Rosario - is ML-ready and fits perfectly into the current hole in CF.
So right now, all the moves look more like a re-load or re-shuffle than an all-out rebuild - just with a younger cast of characters. Ace Pascual Castillo is still on the roster (you can bet they had a bunch of offers for him), and given his extremely high PAT and low TEM, Helena can count on him to re-sign indefinitely. They might just go forward with him as their #1 for another decade.
There are still some aging-roster challenges here. Esmailyn Reynoso and Jair Costilla are still capable of contributing to a playoff run, but they're expensive and not the power sources they used to be. Derrek Finley's 37 now. And the pitching staff will have to replace 3 of their top 5 ERA's from last year (Glen Coste - FA, Mark Cromer - FA, and Ryan - trade.
Prognosis
All-in-all, I expect them to compete pretty well...just not quite at last year's level. The preseason has an incomplete feel to it, and if they look like they're slipping from contention stay tuned for a big Castillo trade. 77 wins, and they win the Division.
cretins
SEA 41: 73-89
Song Summing Up Season 41: Trade It All by Fabolous
From a 7-year contention run in Seasons 29-35 that saw 5 playoff appearances, Chicago has now gone 6 years without seeing the playoffs. Is last year's sell-off setting up contention or continuing the futility?
The Orphans have so far have had almost all bad luck with Hong-Chi Park. He hit 55 bombs the year they traded for him (Season 39), then slumped to 34 in an injury-shortened Season 40 and 14 last year in a season almost totally lost to injury. Wrigley seems the perfect venue if they can keep him on the field.
That would certainly pump up the offense, as will the acquisition of C Hack Palmer - his career .823 OPS should translate to about .870 in Wrigley. 3B Jensen Helms is coming off his best ML season and should remain a viable power threat for another 2-3 years. But the rest of the lineup? Forgettable. IF Al Escobar, one of the 2 nice pieces of the Marks trade, will help but probably gets this year in AAA.
On paper, the Orphans have the worst pitching staff in the NL. Addison Jaime is a nice young pitcher, but he's not a complete replacement for Marks. And outside of a handful of others - Garces, Mercado, Coste - their pitchers just don't have the ratings to hold up in even a moderately hitter-oriented park like theirs.
Prognosis
If Park stays on the field, I think I could see them taking a step forward. On the other hand, teams stuck in the 70's win range seem to never break out until they fix the defense, which Chicago hasn't done (.982 %, 24/61 on +/- plays). There are some glimmers of light here, but not this year. 68 wins.
statman527
SEA 41: 65-97
Song Summing Up Season 41: (tie) Brand New Day by Van Morrison and Droppin' Things by Betty Carter
I find Cincy to be the most interesting team in an interesting division because I can't tell what they're doing. They looked for all the world like an all-out rebuild last year with the Chris Osborne trade, but then they held onto seemingly tradable commodities like Trenidad Cruz and Eli Izquierdo. Did they sense that the division could be taken with less than 80 wins?
The offense will improve a bit when they promote Alex Kim and Darrell Ryan. I don't think either will ever make an All-Star team, but they'll be big steps up from last year's low-700's OPS corner outfielders. Whoever gets RF (probably Ryan) will also be a defensive plus (last year's RF, Bartolo Cela, basically played with his throwing arm in a sling, resulting in 10 "-" plays). The seniors of the lineup, Cruz and 3B Miguel Ramirez, should still be reasonably productive this year. Probably a few more runs for the offense, but I doubt they'll top 675.
To actually contend, Cincy needed to totally overhaul half the staff and they clearly didn't do that. The top 3 (Houston, Schulte, and Izquierdo) are good ML pitchers. Closer Pablo Mendez should be, but his ERA's the last 2 seasons have been
5.54 and 4.89. Beyond that they've promoted a couple of replacement-level (or below) rookies and are playing out the contracts of several Pedro Nesbitt's (who, to be fair, can give you a good season every few years).
Once change I'd like to see, whether they tilt more rebuild or contend, is to install Angelys Arias as the everyday SS. He won't hit a lick, but will save a bunch of the 70 errors and - plays they piled up at SS last year...best possible gift for a talent-challenged pitching staff.
Prognosis
This division will probably surprise me. A better offense here in Cincy, but just not enough pitching to really make a run. 70 wins.
rbedwell
SEA 41: 63-99
Song Summing Up Season 41: (tie) Slow Burn by David Bowie
We know there's a super-team building in NY, the only question is when they'll unleash it. Probably not this year, but it will be spectacular when prospects like Yao-Lin Chen, Junior Burawa, Andres Arguelles, Gerald Seaver, Marvin Holland, Edgar Quixote, Felix Cave, Bernie Uribe, Daric Fordham, Jose Rios, and Hideki Uchida hit The Show in force.
Meanwhile, this year's ML edition is almost certain to top last year's 63 wins - that 18-33 record (which I believe was 0-10 to start the season) in 1-run games obscures how much talent is on this roster. Ralph Clancy will probably never get a lot of MVP or All-Star recognition because he's not a monster power hitter, but will be one of Hobbs' most valuable RF's for another 10 years. Clinton Waters showed promise in his first ML season and might be the best pitcher in their system at the moment. And there are others on the roster - players like 2B Henderson Curtis and 3B Gus Vanguri - who are better than cheap rebuilding placeholders.
Prognosis
Repeat last year without the bad luck in 1-run games: 70 wins.
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