Sunday, March 31, 2019

Season 42 Power Rankings #3

Some times it can get really hard to have a comment about every team.  The effort I go through to make you all happy ;)  The champs are on the rise.  Philadelphia is making look stupid.  Its another fun season.


Teams
score
comment
Jacksonville
2.6
Uh ho!  The defending champs had 16 wins since the last power rankings.  No one else had 14.
Jackson
2.85
Decided to take the week off, but are still good enough for #2
San Juan
4.65
Decided to take the week off, but are still good enough for #3
Pawtucket
6.65
Leads the NL in home runs
Montgomery
7.15
Dan Yearwood had 18 home runs in 138 at bats.
San Francisco
7.5
Kirk Marks is the leader for the NL Cy Young so day (1.84 ERA, most strikeouts)
Florida
7.7
Ezdra Rodriguez leads league in two categories and is 2nd in two others.  My MVP so far!
Philadelphia
8.6
The spreadsheet says #20, EVERYTHING else says #1.  Should we ignore the spreadsheet?
Columbus
10.15
I really thought Columbus would be better
Honolulu
12.05
Tied for #2 in wins over the last week
Los Angeles
12.55
I expect Los Angeles to steadily rise in the rankings.
Toledo
13.65
Tied for #2 in wins over the last week
Pittsburgh
14.15
I own a home in Belleville, PA.  That is Steelers territory.  I prefer the Eagles.
Scottsdale
15.55
I once owned a condo in Scottsdale that I never stepped foot in.  Not even once.  Bought for my daughter and sold it when she moved.
Montreal
16.35
The worst week of any team.  Bad team chemistry. Probably time for a trade.
Oakland
16.4
Yoslan Goya has a .446 OPS so far.
Richmond
17.2
Is there problems at home?  Does it involve Dakar's wife?  They have a far better road record than home record.
Baltimore
17.45
Victor Brady's 24 steals leads the AL
Boston
17.8
Second most errors in the AL.  I hate Boston.  The biggest error was their city choice
Helena
18.75
2 games back despite having the 8th worst record.
Kansas City
18.85
Currently on a 5 game win streak.
Milwaukee
18.95
Seems to be taking the World Series loss hard.
Salem
20.7
Salem fixed its roster!
Colorado
21.1
Weirdly has the worst ERA and the most pitcher K's
New York
21.5
During my 3 years living in Pennsylvania I was always shocked how many people had never been to NYC (or DC for that matter)
Hartford
22.35
Hartford is the only place I have ever taken an Amtrak to
Las Vegas
22.5
Leads the NL in ERA
Oklahoma City
24.95
They would be Philadelphia if Philadelphia sucked.  The spreadsheet cannot figure how they win occasionally.
New Orleans
28.6
Bad in every way a team can be bad
Chicago
29.75
At least they have the #1 waiver claim
Houston
30.4
It could be worse, they could be Cincinnati
Cincinnati
30.5
Wondering what they need to do get the #1 waiver claim

Saturday, March 30, 2019

Trade Digest, Volume 5


The Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners trade Harold Nixon to the Boston Beer Bellies for Noel Abad. 

I’m pretty sure someone lost a bet and this trade is the result.



The Cincinnati Red Stockings trade Tony Leonard and cash to the Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners for Alfonso Tomas and Saul Santos



I expressed objections to this trade on the principle of it being a cash transfer, but beyond that I actually think its pretty creative for both sides.  Tony Leonard and Saul Santos are equally worthless so it’s really Alfonso Tomas for cash.  For Cincinnati it’s a really cheap price to get legit ML’er in Tomas.  He’s better cast as a utility guy, but can start.  $700,000?  Sign me up.  For the Mississippi Moonshiners they get the cash they need for a guy who was a luxury to them.  Good deal for both sides.



The Columbus Buckeyes trade Morgan Mullens and cash to the Milwaukee Chedda for Howard West

A couple of DITR’s swapped for each other.  Mullens is a middle-aged middle reliever who has never started a game, but could spot start if needed.  He is best served as a set up B, but he’s good, flexible one who would be welcome on nearly every roster in the league.  Howard West is middle-aged shortstop.  He’s stuck as a utility man as he lacks the bat or elite glove to justify starting, but he’s a ML’er.  I don’t know either team well enough to know if this swap of 23rd best guy on each rosters make sense of both teams, but they are very similar in value and it seems fair for both sides.



The Jacksonville Fake ID’s swap Sean Cameron and BC Querecuto to Honolulu Luau Dawgs for Vic Campos



Cameron is a 29-year old RF’er with an all-star game and a gold glove at 1B on his resume.  He’s a 30/30 power and speed guy.  He has elite speed and contact, but struggles against left handed pitching.  Overall, he’s above average starting right fielder on a reasonable contract.  The gem of this deal and the reason I may completely regret it is Querecuto.  The 4th pick in last season’s draft he is currently completely dominating low A ball as a 19-year old and is showing terrific development.  He projects to being a 180-inning starter with #1 stuff.  Not quite a HoF’er due to the innings limit, but terrific.  Unfortunately, he’s 3 years away from contributing to an elite team and the Fake ID’s want to win their second consecutive title now.

Vic Campos is a 27-year old second baseman or centerfielder with ELITE range and a terrific glove (4 gold gloves).  A 3-time all-star he doesn’t quite have the same bat though he is not totally unfortunate.  He’s a 20/20 power speed guy, but can struggle to get on base and strikes out a lot. 

This a strong deal for Honolulu.  Any time you can add #1/#2 starter at 19 years old you have to do it and to get another potentially tradable piece is terrific.  For Jacksonville this is a high risk, high reward deal.  It solves their biggest issue (outfield defense), but at what price?  If they never win another World Series and Querecuto wins a Cy Young it’s a failure.  If they win two more it’s a great deal.

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Season 42 Power rankings #2

Things are starting to clear up (except Salem).  Jackson is the clear number #1 and Cincinnati is the clear #32.


Teams
score
Jackson
1.9
Moves into a commanding position (1.9 is a terrific score).  Top in wins and expected win percentage.
San Juan
3.625
No real drop, Jackson just passed them.
Jacksonville
4.85
They are playing like spoiled brats who just assume they can turn on it whenever they want
Pawtucket
5.65
Best expected winning percentage in the NL East.  Likely to leave the jerks from JAX in the dust
Montgomery
8.1
Its rare to see the 5th ranked team have the 13th best expected winning percentage.
Columbus
8.275
They are tied for first, but there has been slippage so far over last season. 
San Francisco
8.6
The spreadsheet loves them.  The game of baseball does not.
Florida
8.975
This is probably my favorite team I don't control so seeing them start well brings me joy.
Philadelphia
9.2
Don't tell anyone, but they are tied with Jackson for the best record.  The underlying numbers say it won't last, but here they are.
Montreal
9.3
Can some please buy Montreal an alarm clock?  Why don't they really play until the last 60 games?
Pittsburgh
10.95
The smartest pick on the board to rise in the rankings.
Los Angeles
13.9
Hottest team in Hobbs since the last power ranking with 12 wins
Helena
14.675
Coldest team in Hobbs since the last power ranking with 3 wins
Honolulu
15.325
The weirdest team on the board, good roster, bad record, middle expected winning percentage
Scottsdale
15.75
Trust me, they are not this good.
Toledo
16.325
The smartest pick on the board to fall in the rankings.  There are no underlying number that support this success.
Oakland
17.475
8th in runs scored
Richmond
17.625
The hottest girl I ever met was from Richmond.
Colorado
17.85
26th best expected winning percentage is not a good sign.
Salem
18.1
I don't know what to do with them.  I have to manually score them since they do not field a full roster.  Great record, bad expected.
Milwaukee
19.25
Trust me, they are not this bad
New York
19.7
The rebuild seems to be paying dividends already
Boston
19.875
Shouldn't be this bad, but I could be wrong.
Baltimore
20.275
Hottest "bad" team.  Another week like that and they will rise into the top 10.
Hartford
21.225
2nd in homeruns
Las Vegas
21.7
I was married in Vegas 13 years ago (true story)
Kansas City
23.375
Dakar may strikeout with the wife, but not at the plate (31st in hitter k's)
Oklahoma City
23.575
Shouldn't be this good, but I could be wrong.
Chicago
28.65
2nd fewest caught stealing
New Orleans
29.275
5.90 team era so far.  Not good.
Houston
30.075
Worst roster in the league, but not the worst results
Cincinnati
30.275
No visible effort to compete so far

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Season 42 Power ranking #1


This is the busy season for school principals so this is kind of a weak power ranking.  As state before, at the beginning of the year the roster is the most valuable piece of the overall score.  Over the course of the year the roster fade in importance and the actual win total becomes more important.  Still it is interesting to see a two all-NL South race for the best team.  If you remember there was a very similar phenomena last year where the NL East held the top 3 spots in the power ranking for about half of the season.  That said Jacksonville and Columbus are still lurking (3rd and 6th) so stay tuned. 



Teams
Roster Rank
win rank
Ex rank
score
San Juan
4
2
2
3.1
Jackson
5
1
1
3.2
Jacksonville
1
10
8
4.55
San Francisco
3
10
10
6.15
Helena
9
4
6
7.25
Columbus
7
10
7
7.6
Pawtucket
2
10
19
7.85
Montgomery
10
4
14
9.8
Philadelphia
16
3
3
10.15
Montreal
6
21
11
10.25
Colorado
13
6
11
11.1
Pittsburgh
15
6
16
13.45
Honolulu
8
21
20
13.6
Richmond
17
6
13
13.8
Scottsdale
23
6
4
14.85
Florida
19
16
5
14.9
Boston
12
16
27
16.55
Toledo
20
10
17
17.25
Milwaukee
11
24
29
18.1
Hartford
14
27
23
18.85
Los Angeles
26
16
9
19.75
Las Vegas
22
16
21
20.55
Oakland
24
16
18
20.9
New York
21
24
22
21.85
Baltimore
18
27
28
22.3
Salem
31
10
15
22.8
Kansas City
25
24
25
24.8
New Orleans
28
27
26
27.3
Houston
30
27
24
27.9
Oklahoma City
29
23
30
28.05
Chicago
27
32
32
29.25
Cincinnati
32
27
31
30.75