AL East Season 42 Preview

Boston Beer Bellies
torrone 
SEA 41:  92-70, won Division, advanced to ALCS and lost to Milwaukee

Song resembling Season 41:  Dirty Water by the Standells,  once performed from atop Fenway).

New Faces:    

RP Jalal Carver was signed to replace closer Pasqual Hernandez who defected to rival Pittsburgh.

Obviously, the Red Sox don't think they need to make many changes to a team that tied for the most wins in the division.  The Bosox were third in OPS last season and second in runs scored.  Carter Altherr (.324/35/94) was the main man despite getting fewer than 400 ABs.  He got plenty of support from DH Phil Kim, CF Yoslan Goya, 3B Lisalverto Rijo, LF Kenneth Easley and 1B Mike Darwin.

Their defense was suspect however.  Darwin at first was probably the best fielder on the team.  Goya rarely makes an error in CF, but his range is suspect.  SS Stryker (why yes, my parents do hate me) Hudson is supposed to be a defensive specialist, but dropped to 13 + plays and had an amazing 35 errors.  Hopefully, he quits whining about his name and returns to being a very good defender.  Depending on how a position battle shapes up between 2B Kendrys Balbon and rookie INF Abraham Tropeano, Rijo might be moved to his more natural 2B position, with Tropeano at 3B.  The loser of the battle should make a fine utility player.

Beyond staff ace James Haney (21-7/1.42/3,92) the rest of the starters put up about the numbers you expect from average to good pitchers performing in Fenway.  Dan Gabriel 10-8 4.88, Jaret Paquette 12-14 4.65 and Paul Cheng 10-11 5.37.  The pen is led by Zeke Sears, who is a much better pitcher than his record would indicate, but was done in by long balls.  Oddly enough, the Red Sox leading candidate to be the fifth starter also bears the name of a Marvel Arch Nemesis: Stryker Bradley.  he would also make a first rate general in the military.  Names aside, the pitching staff needed more than one slight upgrade.  They underperformed to the tune of a 4.97 ERA and 885 rubs allowed.

Prediction:  

Boston got a little lucky last year and will fall back to the pack with 86 wins.  The very good offense is going to be let down by the poor pitching and defense, which will improve but still be below average.

Pittsburgh Dream Eaters
hystericslap 
SEA 41:  92-70, Wild Card, lost in Round 1 to Oakland


Song resembling Season 41:  What A Surprise by the Pointer Sisters

New Faces:  

Where to begin?  Hystericslap has remade about half of his team.  A big trade with Montgomery was the centerpiece of his offseason, sending ace Juan Cano and a good RP, Miguel Cedeno for 3 youngsters; power hitting LF Josh Long, who is being handed that job in the majors and prospects Vasco Alonso and Marv Lemmon.  Alonso is an intriguing SP prospect and Lemmon an outstanding fielding SS.  To fill up his roster, the hysterical one signed no fewer than 7 bargain FAs.  Vernon Everett is a light hitting, high PC catcher.  Danry Valdes is a lower rotation SP with some talent.  3B Yimi Valdespin is a solid player with both the bat and the glove.  Pasqual Hernandez, Luther Monroe, Braulio Johnson and Enrique Bastardo will battle for bullpen jobs.  Hernandez is a long time closer who still has good stuff.  The other 3 are decent pitchers who are hampered by a particular flaw:  control for Monroe, vL for Johnson.  

Last year Pittsburgh was slightly below average in hitting, but 3rd in ERA and Runs allowed.  Losing Cano leaves a staff ace sized hole in their rotation, and Valdes is definitely a drop off  until Vasco Alonzo is ready.  The rest of the rotation consists of  Torey Izquiedo, Wily Osoria, Tomas Carrera who are all quality pitchers and Ted Shaw who performed better than I would have expected with a vR of 50.  All the new guys in the pen join holdovers Roberto Oropesa, Rio Molina, Felix Figueroa and Dioner Duran, along with the highly talented Alex Sanchez who likely becomes the full time closer.

On offense they feature a quite good threesome in the OF.  Jenrry Zumaya in RF posted a .285/27/116 mark and is capable of even more homers.  Jackie Blackwell was equally good in left at.293/28/99.  If CF Granden Saipe had just an average batting eye he would be above average for his position, but still posted a .255/10/62 line.  

Yimi Valdespin looks to provide stability at 3B which was a revolving door last year.  He essentially replaces Oswaldo Seguignol and is a major upgrade.  He is joined in the IF by 1B Dellin Samuel .274/22/83, slick fielding SS Harry Martin .272/14/55 and an upcoming stud at 2B in Octavio Javier .311/13/59 in less than a full season.  That leaves rookie Josh Long looking at seeing some time at LF, 1B and possible eating a lot of ABs at the expense of DH Trace Clark .269/24/82.  Catching duties will be split between Everett and rookie Ruben Sierra who are both defense oriented with light bats.

The bottom line is another team that looks likely to take a step back this season.  I like them for 85 wins with the chance to go back up to the low 90s in season 43, when Alonso is ready.  A really good innings-eating RP would also help a lot.

Hartford Monarchs
aaamizzou 
SEA 41:  77-85

 Song(s) resembling Season 41:  Load Up The Bases by Whiskey Falls, MVP by Russ

New Faces  

No trades made, just a couple of new faces in FA: 2B Brian Thome who would be an above average hitter at the position if he could cut down on the big swing, but is a great defender and looks like a decent piece, and SP Chun-Lim Xiao, a league average pitcher.

So lets start off with the Hartford offense.  They easily have the best player in the division in reigning MVP Yasiel Cayones .331/53/135.  he is a big part of the reason that Hartford was in the top 3 in virtually all hitting categories.  But he couldn't do it alone!  Check out the supporting cast:

*DH/1B Darrell Lynn .294/30/96

*1B Danys de la Vega .345/30/83

*3B Cutter Miller .263/47/106

*LF Jerry Northcraft .273/24/95

*LF Kenny Miller .283/26/87

*platoon DH Dom Bradshaw .353/18/56

*platoon DH Jose Encarnacion .309/7/28

At SS is a defensive wiz, Alex Cora who doesn't embarrass himself with a bat in his hands and in CF Johan Coleman might as well walk to the plate with a chopstick.  His defense is good, but not enough to be worth it.  It might almost be worth taking an extra LF and moving him to center and live with the 25-30 minus plays.  Otherwise, this team is so stacked that the DH platoon may not get much PT despite their good numbers.

Shortly after signing with aaamizzou, Chun-Lim Xiao was asked by a reporter what he thought of playing in Welch Park.  He screamed "Welch Park?  They told me they were with the Cubs.  I thought I was only pitching in Wrigley!  Nnooooo!"  So what do you get when you out a bunch of average pitchers in the worst pitchers park this side of Coors?  Yep, the worst numbers in the league.

Xiao, along with Valerio Cantu, Carson Wallace, and Charles Wiltse would make 4/5 of a good rotation in an average pitchers park.  Here, the best numbers they could come up with was Wiltse's 1.44 WHIP and 4.06 ERA.  The pen could use a serious revamping as many of the available players are basically AAAA guys.  Closer Gareth Damon is the best of the bunch and still only put up 1.61/5.81 numbers.  There is a little help on the horizon at AAA.  Deven Wakeland and Bono Decker will be a little better than the guys they should replace.  Also, Ryan Blackley looks to be a solid SP whenever he is deemed ready.

So what does all this add up to?  I actually kind of like offense heavy team in little ballparks.  I see the pitchers having a little better luck and another big run scoring onslaught.  I like Monarchs for 82 wins this season as the division really tightens up.

Toledo Walleye
pak4427
SEA 41:  68-94

Song resembling Season 41:  Patience by Guns N' Roses

New Faces:

After sitting tight through the trading and early days of FA,  pak then proceeded to score a nice group of cheap free agents to augment his roster.  He resigned Courtney Hermanson and picked up Aneury Lopez and Kurt Menses for his pen, adding extra innings and similar quality to the guys he let walk.  He also picked up 2B Fred Blevins, a light hitting but great glove guy and Adys Bethancourt and Yoervis Barrios to man 1B and DH.  Basically half a bullpen, half an IF and a DH, all for less than $14M.

The Walleye is a team undergoing a rebuild that is already beginning to show results and should be winning the division within a couple of years.  However things were kind of ugly in season 41.  They were very near the bottom of the rankings in most offensive categories, with the exception of showing above average power.  The pitching and fielding were noticeably better, but still below average.

The centerpiece of the offense is 3B Alex Reid, who should turn into a good fielding 40/40 superstar.  As a rookie he posted a .260/36/89 line.  He is well supported by LF Ernest Stynes .291/29/80 along with newcomers Bethancourt and Barros.  Holdover DH Alcides Santana .259/29/81 also figures to be in the mix for ABs.  Two more youngsters that should show improvement are C Bernie Guzman (.261/19/60) who should be very good both at the plate and behind it, and RF Victor Avila .281/17/65.  SS Ernest Stynes and CF Dallas Norton are both the definitions of JAGs although Stynes is capable of 25 homers.

Toledo's rotation boasts another really good youngster in Andy Cobb who should be much better in his second season over his 9-15 4.57 rookie campaign.  Corey Booker, Al Benitez and Albert Wilson are the next 3 starters and well below .500 records with ERAs between four and a half and five.  The bullpen consists of a lot of guys who can throw innings but the new guys are probably as good as any of them get.

This may be the hardest team to pick in the division record-wise, although I feel pretty safe in saying they will finish last. They could just as easily drop back five games, but I'm predicting a 5 game improvement to 73 wins.  All in all, everyone regresses to the mean, and this division becomes tighter top to bottom.