Tuesday, March 12, 2019

NL South Season 42 Preview





Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners
jgsolari3
SEA 41:  83-79, won Division, advanced to Round 2 and lost to Pawtuckett

Song(s) Resembling Season 41: Close the Window by Rita Coolidge

It's been looking like the window's closing on this franchise for a couple of seasons now, but new ownership has brought new life.  First, they re-signed their most important free agents, 1B Pep Walsh and IF Fautino Castillo.  Next, they brought in a couple more key hitters in Carlos Polonia and Dennis Boswell; Boswell should be a reliable leadoff hitter, and Polonia's great value - as an on-base guy - remains undiminished even at age 35.  I think the defensive alignment works best with Polonia at 3B and Arthur Wells in RF, but Carlos P should still be a plus defender just about anywhere they want to use him.  I'm cautiously optimistic they can top last year's 759 runs scored.  800?  Maybe.

The pitching staff of course starts with aces Paul Kinney and Geraldo Manto, but no longer ends there.  Johnny Gardner has always been a strong #3 but 4 and 5 were a disaster last year.  At the moment it looks like we might see a 4-man rotation with perhaps a Powell/Simpson tandem at #4???  Whatever they do the additions of Powell, Simpson and Chad Reid have solidified the staff beyond their top 2.  The (currently) 11-man staff is heavy on short relievers, so it wouldn't surprise me if they add another starter via trade early on.

I like the defense if they stick Angel Castillo at SS and leave him there.  No idea who gets CF...I've always felt it's a position that can give up some defense because of the relative low number of chances.  I'd probably go with Alfonso Thomas in CF but it appears they're using Polonia there to get Andres Alvarez' bat into the lineup at a COF spot.

Prognosis
I like what they've done.  Obviously their path in the playoffs (assuming they're in) is going to rise and fall on Kinney and Manto, but for now I think they've held off any South challengers and given themselves a shot at deeper playoff runs.  90 Wins and Division Title.



San Juan Padres
bobbyj7
SEA 41:   79-83

 Song(s) Resembling Season 41:  Puerto Rico's 2017 World Baseball Classic Song


The Padres seem to be caught in the good offense/mediocre pitching trap of a hitter's ballpark.  You don't want to give up good hitters like Stowers, Almonte, Allen, etc. for better pitchers, but then your averge-ish staff gets hammered in your home park.  What to do?

Well, they've taken a pretty good step with the apparent installation of Omar Elcano as the everyday SS.  He's far from the ideal defensive solution - his range is iffy and his accuracy is low - but he'll be a clear upgrade from Almonte's astounding 53 errors and bad plays last year.  Almonte now becomes a potential GG at 3B and Elcan0 adds another 20 HR's to the attack.  

Much like Colorado, the pitching here isn't as bad as it looks, as they were in the middle of the NL for road ERA.  Escobar, Juarez, Newfield and Perry are a solid front 4; I don't know who gets the nod for #5 but all 3 contenders (Miller, Marmol, Hartman), like the 4 sure SP's, keep the ball low.   The bullpen...well, it looks competent enough but you know the ballpark is going to extract some damage.  Newcomer Alfredo Osoria has had an interesting career; he was terrible for his first 4 years, then put together 7 really good seasons before stumbling last year.  Watch for his home run rate to climb this season.

Prognosis
Pretty similar team to last year, with some defensive improvement...82 Wins.



Houston Colt .45s
pimpbotlove
SEA 41:   62-100

 Song(s) Resembling Season 41:  Tank Club by Pleymo (not to be attributed in any way to new ownership)

Well, they didn't have a lot of options starting this season - I believe they had $0 committed to ML players when the season began.  Fairly hard to build a contender from there.

So much like OKC, their ML roster is made up of a mostly-uninteresting collection of 4A's, Rule V'ers, and ML castoffs.  Their future is much more interesting in the hands of a competent owner, and they already have a few interesting prospects in the (Season 40's #14 overall Fred Buckel, Season 40's #23 overall Dallas Mann, Season 40 IFA Diego Alomar (from a trade with Jacksonville), and last year's #7 overall Don Tartamella.

Prognosis
64 wins



Oklahoma City Apocalypse 
blanch13
SEA 41:  59-103 

 Song(s) Resembling Season 41:  Failure By Design by Brand New and Loser Of The Year by Simple Plan

The Poppyclypse were downright terrible last year and barely made the mwr.  It's a similar clubhouse this season with an assortment of 4A players and just enough fading has-beens (Trenidad Durazo, Philip Dugan and Placido Gomez to get the requisite 61.

It'll at least have a more interesting future after they secure their #1 pick and slosh some $$ out to an IFA.  In the meantime they'll have one of the least interesting Season 42's.

Prognosis
65 wins

Bulletin:  In an extremely minor note, OKC just signed Jecksson Bailey.  If he can stay on the field and they make the mwr by 3 games or less, this signing probably kept me in the world.
 

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