Monday, December 24, 2018

The Not-So-Fake ID’s


Having done OKC yesterday I will now do my own team.  I walked into this season with what I thought was a top 3 if not top 1 farm system.  It had taken too long to build, but it had 4 elite talents (P Diego Alomar, CF Lorenzo Rosario, SP Tony Arias, and 3B/RF Yao-Lin Chen in that order). The ML team was decent, though not ready yet to win a title.  However, last season I thought it was .500 team and I nearly missed the MWR.  Sometimes you are just wrong about your team.   So rather waiting 1 more season to fully engage as planned, I went full speed ahead this, knowing I would not have to worry about the MWR if I did. 



Trades

The Jacksonville Fake ID’s send Diego Alomar to the Wichita Plainsmen for Omar DeLeon, Tony Votto, and Andres Morlan



I kind of hate myself for making this one. Picking up an elite bat was on my shopping list (the ID’s were 28th in runs last season) when I heard from Wichita asking me if Alomar was available at any price.  Alomar was my #1 prospect and perhaps the top pitching prospect in Hobbs.  Only 19, he already has ML stuff and projects to be #1 starter.  Further, assuming he avoids injury he will only get more valuable as he gets older.  One does not win WS by making a practice of trading away young #1 starters. 

After light negotiation the Fake ID’s settle on extracting Omar DeLeon as the key piece in the deal.  DeLeon is a 24 year old, 2-time all-star who not only has 40/40 potential, but did it as a 22-year old.  One set of projections has him as the 9th best bat in Hobbs.  The 25-year old Morlan is strong set up and a good age and price.  Nothing amazing, but above average.  Finally, the 21-year old Votto is fringe ML quality now and will likely be almost, though not quite as good as Morlan.  On balance it was not enough a rare find like Alomar, but it was a lot.  The package fit my timeline and filled my biggest holes, so I took it. 

The Jacksonville Fake ID’s send Junior Burawa and Yao-Lin Chen to the New York Lincoln Giants for Lou Crawford

Having already committed myself to going for it this season, this deal was much easier to make.  Crawford is a power/speed 2B/3B with elite defense any where but SS.  For the Fake ID’s it allowed us to move last year’s 2B to the OF where he’s a better fit and add another multiWAR bat.  Paired with DeLeon and former overall #1 pick Tanner Mlicki, the move gives the Fake ID’s 3 elite power/speed bats all 24 and all under years of team control.

This is not to say that the Giants didn’t get a lot back.  Burawa is ML ready SS with enough glove and enough bat.  While he is not elite in either category, he’s a no compromise player at the toughest position to fill.  Chen is a ML ready player who is either an elite defender in RF or a below average defensive 3B.  His he has a nice bat and eats up left handers.  While still improving, he could be a .270 35 HR guy now.  As neither guy has any service time, they will be valuable pieces both as cheap, contributing starters for New York or as chips in a later trade. 



The Jacksonville Fake ID’s send Larry Powell to the New Orleans Voodoo for Reed Gagnon



For the Fake ID’s this cleared up 1.2 mil.  For the Voodoo they pick up their starting 1B for a guy that was never going to see the ML.



For notes on the Kohn and Martin trades see yesterday’s posts.  However, the long and the short of it is that both deals were made to turn the great depth of the Fake ID’s farm system in to elite young or youngish ML players.



Free agents

Sometimes you just ride the waves.  I always try to at least peak at the free agent list on the last day to see what might have gotten missed, but this was a weird class.  There were so many plus ML hitters left!  I decide to put in bids on a few hoping to get a couple and instead got all of them. 



Greg Ward 4/33 mil

Ward was the only FA to get big money from the Fake ID’s.  Ward is a power/speed hitter with a slightly-above-average glove for LF and.385 OBP.   Worth it?  Probably at least for this and next season. 



Jecksson Bailey 2/7.2 mil

An average bat with a decent glove, his calling card has always been his elite batting eye.  However, I couldn’t find at bats and sent him in the Martin trade.



Dwight Herzog 2/6.4 mil



For 3.2 a year, the future HoF’er is an affordable 4th OF and pinch hitter off the bench who is more than earning his keep.



Gabby Beckett 2/7.5 mil

Pretty much the same as Herzog except he is able to fill in at more defensive positions but doesn’t have quite the same bat.



IFA’s

Having traded Graham I went all out for Yovani Avila spending 23 million.  He will not have the silver slugger bat of Graham, but is less risky as at 18 he could already handle the ML catching duties and should be elite in that area in time.  At the plate she should be league average or better.



Rule 5

Shep Mazzaro



Mazzaro is a 22 year old #4 starter.  While nothing amazing, he is a legitimate ML starter, not a fringe one as one often gets in rule 5. 



Has my planned worked?  I had to give up my #1 and #4 prospects as well as add 20 million to my payroll.  I also hollowed out the 2nd tier of my prospects significantly having traded #5, #6, and #8.  While have added 2 second tier prospects, its still a 3 for 2 situation.  I no longer have a top 3 system.  I’m probably closer to #8-#10 now.  However, I have moved from 28th in runs scored to 8th and from 13th in runs prevented to 9th.  I’ll take it, but it’s a trade off.

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