Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Season 41 Al South Preview



Florida Poison Dart Frogs
groth911 
Season 40:  88-74, Wild Card, advanced to ALCS and lost to M0ntgomery


Season 40 Highlights/Lowlights

Getting to the ALCS is certainly a highlight, especially considering it's the furthest the franchise has ever advanced in the playoffs.  Not really many lowlights, but if you had to pick on something it would be the team defense OUTSIDE of GG SS Yamil Garrido (69 errors from other players).

Big Names Coming In/Going Out SP Cesar Benavente and OF Nicholas Wilkins came over in a big trade with Philly for Sea 40 supplemental pick Nevin Stinnett, Sea 39 supplemental Elijah Snider, and Sea 35's #17 pick Boomer Wright.

Preview

Even though the Frogs scored 830 (6th in AL) runs last year, there's room for improvement.  Despite drawing 589 walks (2nd), they were only 10th in OBP at .327 thanks to a .253 BA.  They were also low in the power department with 153 HR's.  The trade for Wilkins addresses the power shortage (his 40 HR's would've lead Florida last year).  They'll still be kind of a low-contact, high walk attack, but could improve their run total from last year a bit.  The addition of Benavente adds a 3rd reliable starter along with Carey and Montgomery (OK, let's call him reasonably reliable).  With 2 more reliable arms in the pen (Presley and Arrieta) who can throw big innings (probably 300 IP if need be), plus a top-end closer in Chaz Ross, the Frogs have a staff that can dominate a playoff series.  The defense makes a few too many errors outside of SS Garrido, but his 25-30 good plays every year help offset  that.  They'll be trotting out a well-balanced team without no glaring holes.

Prediction
94 wins

Biggest Thing To Improve
Probably their biggest weakness is contact.  Even with a good walk rate, they're short on base runners.  Maybe something that can be addressed i a small way at the deadline.




New Orleans Voodoo
bigmattr
Season 40: 84-78


Season 40 Highlights/Lowlights
Season 40 was the 2nd year of the previous regime's attempt to contend and rebuild at the same time; unlike the first year they both missed the playoffs AND failed to add promising prospects, prompting management to bolt for a new team in the NL.

Big Names Coming In/Going Out 
Pulled off perhaps the biggest trade of the pre-season, getting 26-yo ace SP Chris Osborne for prospects Alex Kim (former $36MM IFA), Chris Houston (former #3 pick), and Darrell Ryan (former #6 pick).

Preview

The Voodoo have yet to fill out the roster with bargain-bin FA's and waiver claims, but here's what the direction seems to be for now.  They'll rebuild around SP Osborne for as long as it takes, and when they arrive, they'll still have an ace (although I suppose if someone came knocking with a huge offer for Osborne they'd listen).  So far they've done a good job signing cheap veterans for the bullpen.  They'll still have Pablo Valbuena at 3B for a season or 2, and they'll have a pretty good hitter and adequate defender in CF with Touki Epstein.  Outside of that it's going to be ugly, but likely good enough to hit the mwr. 

Prediction
60 wins should be easily doable.

Biggest Thing To Improve
Too many to get into, but that's the nature of rebuilds.  Right now the starting rotation is just Osborne, so they need to find some FA bargains who can keep them in some games.


Montgomery Scotts
silentpadna
Season 40:  93-69, advanced to WS and lost to Tacoma



Season 40 Highlights/Lowlights
Well, everything was pretty much a high point until Games 5,6,and 7 of the WS.  Won the Division, advanced through the playoffs handily and had Tacoma down 3-1 before "the comeback".  Got a huge boost from ROY 3B Steve Walsh (.334/30/103), and to top it all off, landed the year's best IFA in SP Nori Zhang.
Big Names Coming In/Going Out It's a very young team, so they had about the quietest pre-season of any franchise in Hobbs.  Losing DH Raul Villa could be a big deal, as his 40 HR and 123 RBI lead the team.

Preview

The Scotts scored a few more runs than Florida (865 to 830) last year, but with a completely different style.  The Frogs were a low contact-high walk-low power group, while Montgomery preferred a medium contact-low walk-high power approach.  Their 283 bombs were 2nd in the AL, and 8 players clocked 21 or more.  Any conversation about their offense, of course, has to concern their ROY sensation Steve Walsh and whether he can duplicate (or surpass) last year's stellar .334/30/103.  Probably 50/50...that BA will be hard to top...but look for him on the MVP ballot either way. Once you get past Vic Merced, the Scotts' staff looks like the kind of group that can go up or down a lot from season to season.  That's pretty much been the recent history...down a little last year, up a lot the year before, terrible in Season 38.  It hasn't changed much this year, so league average is probably the worst case.

Prediction

88 wins


Biggest Thing To Improve
Their defense is among the best in the AL...83 errors (tied for 4th-fewest) and 76/18 +/-.  So I'd say the overall pitching situation needs an upgrade if they want to get back to the WS



Richmond High Rollers
bjc30
Season 40: 85-77


Season 40 Highlights/Lowlights
Won 85, but missed the 2nd Wild Card by a mere tie break to the LA Motley Crue.  This is after advancing to the ALCS in Season 39, so a pretty good run of high points.  LF Destin Williamson (.291/50/126) picked up the AL's LF Silver Slugger.


Big Names Coming In/Going Out
Traded C Bo Guerrier to KC for Sea 40 IFA Benji Franco and Turner Fletcher, the #27 pick of Sea 36.


Preview

The team ERA jumped from 3.99 in Sea 39 to 4.57 last year, largely explaining the 5-win drop.  They did have a couple of rookies (former #7 pick Matt Booker and former 2nd-rounder Vidal Martinez) work into the rotation last year and both pitched well, so maybe the pitching fortunes are looking up.  Their 799 runs scored last year was a little above the league average; although they're highly dependent on Williamson and DH Willie German for RBI (126 and 110, and the next highest total for a player still on the roster was 3B Cecil White's 67) they get on base pretty well (.335).  They did
commit 106 errors last year - a little prone to giving away runs.

Prediction

91 wins

Biggest Thing To Improve
Middle infield defense.  SS Redmond and 2B Jorgensen combined for 51 errors last year (to be fair they also had 28 + plays) and its not like they were hitting lights out to compensate.  Jorgensen looks like he could get better, but Redmond at SS will likely be a sieve again.


Division Outlook

Montgomery
, Florida and Richmond are only 4 wins apart over the last 2 seasons combined, so if they finished in a dead heat I don't think anyone would be terribly surprised.  I think the Frogs improved a little more, and I like their pitching just a little better.  This cold be our most entertaining division this year.


1.  Florida
2.  Richmond
3.  Montgomery
4.  New Orleans

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