Season 41 NL South Preview

San Juan Padres
bobbyj7
Season 40:  80-82

Season 40 Highs and Lows
The highs were all on offense as the Pads improved their run production by 64 tallies to lead the NL at 814.  They got Silver Slugger seasons from C Omir Stowers (.325/.418/.515) and SS Louie Almonte (.322/44/127).  The lows were in the "stopping  the other guys from scoring" phases with a Team ERA of 4.63, 105 errors and 46 "-" plays.

Biggest Addition, Biggest Subtraction
Added a couple of nice pieces (albeit fairly short-terms ones) in FA with Ike Allen and Phil Newfield, and suffered no significant losses.  Promoted  Season 37 #18, SP Miguel Juarez.

Season 41 Preview
San Juan has assembled quite a lineup with Allen, Almonte, Stowers, 1B Dugan and CF Nunez.  It's mostly a power lineup (267 HR's) although they're above-average in contact and OBP.  Don't be surprised if they top last year's 814 runs.  Ezequiel Escobar is the #1 SP and probably the only one they can truly count on, but SJ made a concerted effort to bolster the rotation.  They'll probably go with rookie Juarez at #2, Newfield at #3, and Jimmy Miller at #4.  If so, they have a chance at a decent improvement from the rotation.  Beyond Ozzie Martin, the 'pen still has big issues (and Martin wasn't that great last year either).  The defense will still be leaky, but that's often the price you pay for putting up 800+ runs in the NL.

Prognosis
Can they get the team ERA down to a league-average-ish 4.20?  That would be something like 725 runs allowed.  And if they score 820?  Last year's teams that were around +100 runs ranged in record from 85 t0 93 - let's take the middle and say 89 wins.

Intriguing Trade?As with many teams, I think they could bump their wins up by 2 or 3 - cheaply - just by going out and getting a real SS (and move Almonte to 3B where he becomes a + defender instead of a problem).

Wichita Plainsmen
toddemeyer
Season 40: 74-88

Season 40 Highs and Lows
I thought this team was going to be a WS contender in the early-mid 30's, but they caught a few bad breaks and started a  rebuild with Season 39's trade of Juan Martinez.  With that in mind, rebuilding is always the lowest of low points.  But there were bright spots:  Ben Kile made the ROY ballot, Endy Wilson made the FOY ballot, and the draft produced 2B/OF Fred Buckel plus 3 first-round supplementals

Biggest Addition, Biggest Subtraction
Played very heavy in the cheap free agent market - the biggest names signed were Slick MacFarlane, Jamie Osborne, and Ross Greene.  Obtained some prospects in 2 trades, the best of whom are Bobby Argyropoulos and Diego Alomar.  Traded away Omar DeLeon, Andres Morlan, Dante Kawasaki, Jackson Paris, and Charles Linden.

Season 41 Preview
Nothing terribly exciting about Wichita's lineup or staff - it seems constructed pretty much solely for the purpose of rebuilding and beating the mwr.  This year is for clearing out the deadwood and setting up good drafts.  Next year's ML payroll is looking interesting at  exactly $0 committed to ML players.

Prognosis
60 wins

Intriguing Trade?
I think they've done what they can do this year.



Texas Stars
sf33
Season 40: 93-69, won Division, lost to Pawtuckett in Division Round

Season 40 Highs and Lows
93 wins and 5th straight Division crown is definitely a highlight; the Division-Round exit at the hands of Pawtuckett a lowlight.  Pep Walsh (.305/56/146) led the NL in HRs and RBI, yet only pulled 5 MVP votes.  Geraldo Manto (15-10, 2.31) and Paul Kinney (16-14, 3.32) both got Cy Young votes, and are entering their age 28 and 27 seasons.

Biggest Addition, Biggest Subtraction
Lost Octavio Trevino and Corey Booker to FA; signed Yimi Arcia and Christian Nakamura.

Season 41 Preview
It's already been 8 seasons of 85+ wins for Texas (and 7 of those 8 exceeded 90 wins), but they'll remain relevant as long as Kinney and Manto are around.  They'll work around the Trevino departure with a LF platoon of Tim Irwin and Pascual Cabrera, and will bump up their power output with Arthur Wells and Haywood Haynes at 3B.  They're not great at making contact or reaching base, but the extra power should keep them in the 765-run range.  Behind Kinney and Manto, Johnny Gardner is a solid #3.  I don't really care about #'s 4 and 5 because this team will make the playoffs and only the front 3 matter there.  With Jeremi Wilkerson's advanced years and rapidly declining ratings, the bullpen is suspect.  They could really use one great arm in the pen (preferably not one of those 50-inning types).

Prognosis
I'm saying a slight decline to 90 wins, but they remain a super-dangerous playoff team.

Intriguing Trade?
A top reliever would really solidify their chances of a deep playoff run.  Richmond's Pedro Flores is a notch below the best relief arms, but would be a welcome addition.

Oklahoma City
blanch13
Season 40:  81-81

Season 40 Highs and Lows
Playing in Texas last year the franchise hit .500 (on the nose) for the first time in 6 seasons (both a high and a low).  Having DH Phil Kim play 1B added 17 "-" plays to the 2nd-in-NL total of 49, but he did chip in 33 HR's and 111 RBI to the offense.  Perhaps the brightest highlight was Bralin Kohn's Cy Young win (17 wins, 5 saves, 2.25 ERA in 192 IP).  I'm not going to research it, but I'd bet this is the only season in Hobbs history in which 2 non-closer RP's have won their respective leagues' Cy Youngs.

Biggest Addition, Biggest Subtraction
The 'Clypse quickly started a rebuild by trading Kelvim Hasegawa, although they notably did not trade Kohn.  They also lost SP Phil Newfield in FA.  The best ML player they got back in their trades was Yamil Cairo  - the rest of the group are cheap 3-year filler at best.

Season 41 Preview
The question is not IF they're rebuilding but how far they'll fall, as they have to completely renovate the farm system, the coaching staff - everything.  Clearly the plan is to take the air out of the ball with the huge ballpark and try to steal some close games from better teams.  It's not clear what Kohn's role will be but in that ballpark he's sure to put up some eye-popping numbers.

Prognosis
The 'clypse could flirt with the MWR this year but a better bet is 60-65 wins.  Call it 62

Intriguing Trade?
Bralin Kohn for...pick a prospect on any contender at the break.  How about Kohn to Jacksonville for Tony Arias?

Division Outlook
1.  Texas
2.  San Juan
3.  Wichita
4.  Oklahoma City