Season 41 AL East Preview

Boston Beer Bellies
 torrone
Season 40: 88-74, won Division, lost in Round 1 to Florida

Season 40 Highs and Lows
88 wins and second straight East crown (high), but second straight loss in the play-in round (low).  949 runs scored (high), which led both leagues, and a particularly productive campaign from CF Yoslan Goya (.412 OBP, 35 HR, 116 RBI).  But the pitching didn't quite measure up for playoff competition (4.63 ERA).

Biggest Addition, Biggest Subtraction
Equally big additions:  RP Pasqual Hernandez, SP Sam Gentry, and DH Phil Kim.  No subtractions  of note.

Season 41 Preview
Runs, runs and more runs is the Boston way these days.  Pretty good power (214 jacks) but they really excel at contact (.289 BA) and getting on base (they lead the Majors in both).  Nobody typifies the approach more than Goya, but he has plenty of help from C Carter Altherr (.292/26/75), LF Kenneth Easley (186 hits, .293/24/92), RF Keith Kohn (.291/18/74), and 1B Mike Darwin (.265/17/71).  Coming out of Spring Training the rotation appears to be Paquette, Gentry, Haney, Gabriel and Cheng - a decent group but probably overpowered by their counterparts in Oakland, Montreal, LA, or FLA should they meet in the playoffs.  The bullpen has more firepower with Hernandez and Zeke Sears, and should be able to hold its own come playoff time.  The defense is pretty good - .986 and 66/39 +/- - but likely not enough to save a run-of-the-mill rotation.

Prognosis:
This lineup will probably score so many runs that the minimum win total is probably 85. I'll go with 90, but the real question is the rotation's ability to take them through 3 or 4 playoff rounds.

Intriguing Trade?
Boy would an ace SP look good on this team?  I don't think they have any prospects that would command an ace, but Goya might - even at age 31.  Texas needs a CF - to the Stars for Geraldo Manto?

Hartford Monarchs
aaamizzou
Season 40:  79-83

Season 40 Highs and Lows
Improved by 4 wins; scored 893 runs (4th in AL), punctuated by Silver Slugger seasons from C Esmerling Tabaka (.290/.423/.515) and DH Darrell Lynn (.348/38/116).  Struggled on the hill (5.14 Team ERA) and in the field (122 errors and 50 "-" plays - both AL highs).

Biggest Addition, Biggest Subtraction
Landed perhaps the top C in Hobbs in Yasiel Cayonnes (for good but not great pitching prospect Clinton Waters).  In their stadium, expect 60 HR's from Cayonnes.   2B/3B Victor Brady and OF Bernard Clifton left in FA.

Season 41 Preiew
The Cayonnes acquisition leaves them with 3 DH's, and they're without a 3B as ST packs up.  Still, with Cayonnes, Tabaka, LF Danys De La Vega, and 1B Darrell Lynn, this offense should easily top 900 runs.  The pitching is, in a word, problematical, even in the cozy ballpark (5.14 ERA last year, better only than Colorado).  Gareth Damon's 3.76 ERA last season looks outright heroic, and his was the only ERA under 4.45 for a P with more than 43 IP.  This group might look pretty good in a neutral ballpark, but here, it's going to give up 5+ runs a game.

Prognosis
Let's be optimistic and say they get a couple of 4.20-ish ERA seasons from starting pitchers.  That would get them to 83 wins.

Intriguing Trade?They have a pretty good roster of COF's...De La Vega and one of the DH's for a 3B?

Pittsburgh Dream Eaters
hystericslap
Season 40: 76-86

Season 40 Highs and Lows
Cruised to a 2nd-straight 76-win season despite having the 3rd-best ERA in the AL.  Captured the AL FOY with closer Miguel Cedano (38 saves) and the AL SS Silver Slugger with Trenidad Durazo (.313/.394/.528).  They had quite a few disappointing offensive performances...summed up by the fact that only 3 FT players OPS'd over .700.

Biggest Addition, Biggest Subtraction
Dayan Franco and Javier Fernandez left in FA and are probably headed for retirement.  They were one of our busier teams in FA, signing RF Jenry Zumaya, C/DH Trace Clark, 1B Dellin Samuel, LF Jackie Blackwell, SS Harry Martin, C Vernon Everett, and pitchers Albert Gonzalez, Rio Molina, Dioner Duran, and Felix Figueroa.  That's 3/4ths of a lineup and pretty much a whole bullpen for around $26MM.  There are going to be some real bargains in this group.

Season 41 Preview
This staff was #3 in the AL last year and have a good chance to be better.  Julio Cano will of course be the #1, with Izquierdo #2, and I hope they'll move Wily Osoria into the rotation full-time.  That's not a bad front 3.  And the bullpen will be better with Gonzalez, Duran and Molina (and can shoulder a lot of innings).  The lineup will surprise you, and will far surpass last year's putrid 673-run output.  You watch...that there Trace Clark can still hit...not sure I wouldn't give him some innings at C, but the Dream Eaters seem set to go with defensive specialists at C.

Prognosis
If their pitching improves a bit (very plausible) - say 680 runs allowed - and their lineup gets to 750 runs, could they overhaul Boston?  It would be statistically unlikely, but not highly unlikely.  They'd have to get very lucky in 1-run games.  I'm predicting they do just that - 90 wins and they take the tie-break over BOS.

Intriguing Trade? No idea, this team is interesting enough as it is.
 

Toledo Walleye       
pak4427
Season 40: 56-106

Season 40 Highs and Lows
Went all-in on rebuilding (sometimes you have to...let's call it neutral); gambled and won on the mwr, nabbing the #1 pick (high).  Got CF Bill Treadaway at #9 in the draft...he could turn into a great-range CF who hits a bit.  Even in the midst of a tough season, got excellent seasons from OF Jenry Zumaya (34 HR, 121 RBI) and P Al Benitez (3.76 ERA in 177 IP).

Biggest Addition, Biggest Subtraction
Zumaya departed to division rival PIT and they added budget FA signees Joe Wilk (wow, hard to think of Wilk as a budget FA signee...I still think of hm as a key power hitter on a WS winner!), Ernest Stynes (another guy who's developing a rep as someone  who helps rebuilders hit the mwr), Benji Wagner, Benny Marquez, Corey Booker, Alcides Santana, Dallas Norton, and a few others. And Andy Cobb in Rule V - that was actually pretty big.

Season 41 Preview
With Cobb, Booker, Al Benitez, and rookie Albert Wilson (Season 37 #20) the likely front 4 of the rotation, their immediate goal of hitting the mwr (64 for them this year) looks pretty good.  The lineup won't go down in history but with Santana, Wilk and Stynes in the middle of it it should be competent enough.  More importantly for the future, they MUST hit on the #1 pick.

Prognosis
70 wins

Intriguing Trade?
Not relevant.

Division Outlook
1.  Pittsburgh
2.  Boston
3.  Hartford
4. Toledo