pfontaine
Season 40: 85-77, Wild Card, lost in Round 1 to Columbus
Season 40
85 wins and a Division title after a 5-year playoff absence. Although Harvey Tracy is still around, this is now the team of Geronimo Posada (25 HRs 110 RBI) and NL ROY Del Perez (.347/29/97). The rich farm system got richer with the additions of #6 Bump Peters and IFA Ignacio Castillo.
Who's In? Who's Out?
Brought in SP Zach McLaughlin and closer Yordano Valdes in FA. SP's Sam Gentry and George Hernandez left in FA.
Season 41 Outlook
After 5 straight 4th-place finishes, SF jumped to 85 wins and the Division Crown, not surprisingly coincidental with the arrival of ROY Perez. Perez, Posada, Tracy & co. are now fully capable of putting up 800 runs in a season - particularly impressive since they also play excellent defense (.989 fielding % last year and 94/19 +/- plays). This really helps out a pitching staff that needs it - McLaughlin and Valdes will be a net plus over Gentry and Hernandez, but they still lack that real lock-down ace that's so important for playoff success (and Yovani Cobral and some others are not likely to duplicate last year's performance).
Prediction
Almost certain to win the division again...maybe easily and maybe with a little push from Salem. Say 90 wins. The bigger question is can the staff hold up over 3 or 4 playoff series. Nothing's impossible once you reach the playoffs but they'd be well-served to finagle an ace somehow.
Must Trade/Can't Trade
Obviously can't trade Perez...too young/good/cheap. But also
can't trade SS Avisail Silva, the centerpiece of that killer D. Must trade: although he's the perfect (and perfectly-timed) heir apparent to Tracy, Francisco Guerrero would command that desperately-needed ace.
Salem Witch Hunters
tk21775
Season 40: 77-85
Season 40
Last year was the first time in the 11-season tk era that the Hunters have not finished above .500. Not a deep low, but a low. Ike Allen (.302/22/99) was still the best player on the team at age 35 - big decision coming this year on whether to re-sign a 36-yo hitter (they didn't). Their top 3 pitchers - Posada, McKenry and Garza - were still superb but not enough to keep the rest of the staff from dragging the team ERA down to 4.48.
Who's In? Who's Out?
Allen moved cross-country to the warmer climes of San Juan for his senior seasons. tk signed a trio in FA to try to get back into divisional competition: SS Melvin Suzuki, P Ivan Beltre, and OF Octavio Trevino.
Season 41 Outlook
Old teams have a way of surprising people, and I think this Salem squad will as well. Pitching in a big park, Beltre could give them a mid-3's ERA over 180 IP - a huge improvement over departed SP's Cheng and Piscotty. Knepper and Sweeney are also good candidates to improve last year's numbers. Trevino isn't Ike Allen, but his career OPS of .857 suggests he could produce as well as Allen did last year (.870). Still, I'm not as optimistic about their lineup as I am their pitchers. They don't reach base well (.317, and their best holdover position player was 3B Clarkson at .351), and they don't hit for much power (.390 Slugging %). Somehow, though, I think they'll score a few more runs.
86 wins.
Must Trade/Can't Trade
No must's or can'ts here, but if they're 10 back at the break I'd like to see them get some prospects for Clarkson, Trevino, Hooks Gose and Posada.
Scottsdale Cardinalsfinnski
Season 40: 64-98
Season 40
It's a new generation of Cardinals since their Sea 34 WS trip, but the franchise always seems to feature power. Last year's edition launched 241 round-trippers (Armando Encarnacion and Howie Lee lead the way with 44 and 37); unfortunately a lot of those were solos, as the team only mustered a .309 OBP and 669 runs scored. While Ratliff, Hoover, Wojciechowski, and Peguero posted fine seasons the staff as a whole struggled to a 4.62 ERA.
Season 41 Outlook
It's probably another rebuilding season in Scottsdale - there are probably a few on the way. Can they start to accumulate bunches of prospects the way New York, Kansas City and Jacksonville have? They'll get a good draft pick but for this year the payroll prohibits snagging a big IFA. Can they wrangle a decent prospect for someone like Calvin Ratliffe or Ronald Hoover at the deadline? In the meantime there will still be plenty of longballs flying out of Davis Ballpark.
Prediction
67 wins.
Must Trade/Can't Trade
Must trade Calvin Ratliffe, Billy Walker, Howie Lee, and/or anyone else that could bring in some prospects to restock a nearly-empty farm system. There are no can't trade's.
Honolulu Luau Dogs
rockydawg07
Season 40: 79-83
Season 40 Recap
The enigma that is the Honolulu franchise dropped to 79 wins only 2 seasons after winning 106, with largely the same roster. Among the bright spots were 1B Brad Terry's .300/51/132, 2B Carlos Polonia's .907 OPS, and Zach (Mr. Consistent) McLaughlin's 16-9, 2.79 ERA in 232 IP. But too many players failed to repeat Season 38's performances: both runs scored and Team ERA degraded for the 2nd straight year.
Who's In? Who's Out?
Unfortunately McLaughlin and on-base specialist Jecksson Bailey escaped in FA, and the team chose not to replace them, at least not with anyone carrying a significant cost. They did pay up for a quality SS in Yangervis Vega.
Season 41 Outlook
Perhaps the move to Honolulu will ignite the offense. 1B Terry has hit 50+ HR's the last 2 seasons, even in the big Seattle park. C Almadova should be a .950+ OPS'er. 2B/3B Polonia still has power and great on-base ability at age 34. I guess I've been the most perplexed by the production of the 2 CF's, Campos and Valenzuela. Both had a couple of good seasons in the previous stay in Hawaii, so there are precedents for a return to .800's OPS for both. As to the advisability of keeping 2 quality CF's, we'll deal with that later. The pitching decline - from 3.03 ERA in Sea 38 to 3.60 in Seas 39 to 4.23 last year - is even more perplexing, especially given that that staff stayed pretty much intact over that span. In any event, the move west doesn't portend well for an average-looking staff (John Punto appears to be the only highly-talented arm and his tops is maybe 150 IP).
Prediction
75 wins
Must Trade/Can't Trade
I think they have to trade CF Valenzuela. Good CF's are always marketable and while he isn't a great hitter, he's better than most CF's of his defensive caliber. Go get a pitcher. Terry carries so much of the offense that I think he's untradable.
Division Prediction
1. San Francisco
2. Salem
3. Honolulu
4. Scottsdale
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