Chicago Orphans
cretins
Season 40: 77-85
Season 40 Highs and Lows
The good news is they've improved the win total for 4 straight seasons; the bad news is that at the rate they're going they're still 4-5 seasons from the playoffs. More good news: they have some legit stars on the ML roster (Kirk Marks, Hong-Chih Park) or on the way (Jennry Garces).
Biggest Additions and Subtractions
Promoted OF Hiroyuki Woo and SP Garces; no FA losses of note.
Season 41 Preview
The lineup punched across 775 runs (4th) last year with a combination of good contact (.269 BA - 3rd) and power (.446 Slugging - 3rd). And that was with their best hitter, Hong-Chi Park, not having much of a year. (down to 34 HR's after seasons of 50 and 55). After playing in 161 games last year (most in 4 seasons), B.C. Alfonzo is already on the DL this year, so there's one spot where they could fall off. All in all, though, the offense looks solid. The pitching probably won't get any worse. The 4.89 ERA was 16th in the NL. Marks will bounce back from his worst year as a pro; if things break right, Garces and Wladimir Mercado will form a competent front 2 and the lineup will give everybody else great run support. One chronic problem Chicago has had is defense: 95 errors and 77 bad plays (led the NL by far) last year certainly did the staff no favors. Looks like they've decided to live with it again and lean on the offense to win games.
Prognosis
With that defense and shallow staff, it's hard to see them breaking into contention. If everything goes right they could win 85, but I think a prediction of continued small improvement to 80 wins in reasonable.
Intriguing Trade
Nothing would improve their immediate prospects more than a couple of good defenders at SS and CF. Call Honolulu and offer Season 40 supplemental #1 Michael Butera and Season 40 3rd-rounder Michael Hackman for 2B/CF Tuck Howard and SS Mel Whitehead.
shesaid
Season 40: 105-57, WORLD SERIES CHAMPS
Season 40 Highs and Lows
Well, winning the World Series pretty much makes it a season-long highlight without any low points. I guess it could be considered a low point when, down 3-1 in the WS, they fell behind 3-0 in Game 5 and still trailed 3-2 after 6. But they rallied for 2 in the 7th and 3 in the 8th to win Game 5 10-3, and never trailed in Games 6 or 7.
Biggest Additions and Subtractions
Bolstered SS with Don Yamakazi and Don Shibata; otherwise a very quiet off-season.
Season 41 Preview
First, this is a very good team. They were 3rd (789) in runs playing in a monster ballpark. Their defense was pretty flashy with a .989 fielding % and 53 + plays. But that pitching...their staff lapped the NL field in ERA with a stunning 3.04 (Baltimore was 2nd at 3.63). Is their pitching that good, or did they have a lucky season? First look suggests they got pretty lucky - of their top 8 pitchers by ERA, 7 had better ERA's than their career average last year (some were way better...Mark Cromer's 2.11 was 2 runs a game better than his career mark). But Tacoma's huge ballpark (-4 across the board) had to help these numbers. Is their any way we can compare these pitcher's results from one season to the next independent of ballpark effects? Yep, we can look at each pitcher's ERA in away games each season - a rough version of "how'd they pitch in the average ballpark". Sure enough, the same 7 of those 8 had better ERA's in the "average ballpark" in Season 40 than they did in Season 39. The ballpark helped, but they also had 7 guys put up much better seasons than you'd expect.
Prognosis
There's a bunch of good players here. I don't think they'll win 105 again, but they could win 100. With Cincy starting a rebuild, New York continuing a rebuild, and Chicago stretching to win 85, they could win the division blindfolded. Call it 100 wins.
Intriguing Trade
With no one really pushing them in the Division and a very balanced team, I can't see any trade that makes sense.
statman527
Season 40: 85-77, Wild Card, lost in Round 1 to Pawtuckett
Season 40 Highs and Lows
The low: after 3 straight division titles and a WS win 2 seasons ago, a drop to 2nd and a quick playoff exit. The high: Chris Osborne's 14-11, 2.93 ERA in 224 IP, and he's entering his age 26 and 1st-arb year.
Biggest Additions and Subtractions
It doesn't get any bigger than moving Chris Osborne; Chris Houston, Alex Kim, and Darrell Ryan will be the core of this team for years to come.
Season 41 Preview
With Osborne out, the transformation in Cincy has begun. With all the vets including Trenidad Cruz and Miguel Ramirez on the trade block, we're going to see a dramatically different squad than in recent seasons. In the meantime, Cruz is still an uber-dangerous hitter, and the coming Kim + Ryan +Dennis Boswell COF rotation is pretty potent and stout defensively. Houston now becomes the #1 starter, and while he should have 1 more season of pretty good ratings growth, he's far from the powerhouse ace that Osborne was. This staff should be OK, but is probably 4-5 wins worse without Osborne.
Prognosis
Who knows with the team in such flux. I'll guess that they'll be able to trade Cruz but not Ramirez...that'll cost a few wins. But with the influx of youngsters, they won't drop too far. 80 wins for the Red Stockings.
Intriguing Trade
Lots of reasonable speculating to be done here. With his statue-like range and concrete glove, Cruz belongs in the AL. He's more likely to go mid-season to some team in a very competitive division; Montgomery, Florida and Richmond have been kicking and gouging for prominence in the AL South since the abrupt decline of the New Orleans franchise 2 seasons ago. Richmond has a couple of OF/1B types almost ready in AAA, plus a good OF/1B roster in the Majors, so I don't see them going for a 2-season rental (Cruz is signed through Season 42). Florida isn't going to give Alexander Pickett for Cruz and really has no other ML prospects. With holes at 1B and DH, plenty of cap space and a strong farm system, Montgomery is the best bet: SP Matt Baker for Cruz?
rbedwell
Season 40: 77-85
Season 40 Highs and Lows
I guess the only low is that they're in rebuilding mode, but they're gradually rebuilding the franchise into a powerhouse. Added IFA Bernie Uribe and #4 pick Felix Cave to the farm system and showed well on the awards front with closer Christopher Peterson taking the NL FOY and CF Raimel Arruebarrena winning the Silver Slugger.
Biggest Additions and Subtractions
Out: Yasiel Cayones and Lou Crawford. In: Clinton Waters, Yao-Lin Chen, and Junior Burawa. A couple of young monster bats for a pair of top IF prospects and a very good pitching prospect.
Season 41 Preview
rbedwell could be setting up a classic "prospect rush" strategy- keep trading MLers (even good young ones) for prospects until you have 6 or 8 great prospects ready for ML play, then promote them all at the same time. The combination of good, young and cheap becomes hard to beat for quite a few seasons. For now the ML roster seems designed to comfortably beat the mwr, with RF Ralph Clancy and CF Billy O'Sullivan the only standouts. Good chance when we take a look at farm systems later in the season, this one's going to be #1.
PrognosisLess the power of Cayones and Crawford, a drop to 70 wins.
Intriguing TradeWhile the Giants' system appears to be heavier on position players than pitchers, so does almost everyone else's. They might like to make a Felix Cave-for-ML-ready-pitcher deal, but I don't see one out there.
Division Outlook
1. Tacoma
2. Cincinnati
3. Chicago
4. New York
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