It’s always interesting to me take a deep dive into what a
team is up to.
This time I am taking you
with me.
I am looking at the trades going
from most recent to oldest.
When I make
reference to grades, I am making reference to scores on my spreadsheet.
Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Esmerling Martin to the Jacksonville
Fake ID’s for Jecksson Bailey, John Kang, and Tony Ortiz
The Apocalypse continue their dealing ways shipping Esmerlin
Martin to the suddenly “win now” Fake ID’s.
Martin grades out as a solid #3 starter.
He’s a little better than his grade as he is terrific defensively and
his lifetime 3.52 era confirms the above average #3 starter assessment.
He’s 29 and in the last year of his deal
making it unlikely he was in Oklahoma City’s long-term plans.
In Bailey, the Apocalypse get bat (.369 career
OBP with plus speed).
He’s limited on defense
to 1B or below average corner outfield, but he’s on a terrific contract (2/7.2
with only 4.2 guaranteed).
At 32 he’s
not part of OKC’s long-term plan, but should be a middle of the order bat
immediately.
Kang grades out as a 4
th
starter (2710) and his 3.95 career ERA confirms it.
Though 27, he’s hasn’t even hit arbitration
yet.
He can take Martin’s spot in the rotation
and should only be limited downgrade. Once OKC gets rolling he’ll be out, but
he’s a usable piece.
Ortiz is the throw-in.
He grades out as a back-of-the bullpen RP (2646),
but his low stamina, low durability limits his impact.
In Martin the Jacksonville Fake ID’s upgrade their rotation.
Though likely to be playoff bound, they lack
top-of-the-rotation talent.
This trade
will not address that weakness.
However,
Martin does give them, together with Jenkins (2906) and Colome (2887), 3 #2/#3’s.
Since Bailey and Ortiz weren’t contributing
at the ML level and weren’t part of the long term plan it’s a fair deal for
both sides.
Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Humberto Almora to the Montreal
Shamrocks for George Abraham
Unlike most of the guys that OKC has dealt Almora could have
been part of their long-term plans.
A
terrific defensive SS (career 44 +/1 -, .978 fielding) with a so-so bat (.678
career OPS) Almora is a league average SS.
At 26, with years of team control left he is a flexible asset.
As a utility infielder he’s elite, though is
a year away from being too expensive for that.
In Abraham the Apocalypse get a 19-year old former 32
nd pick
who is fringe ML level now who should develop into a top of the bullpen type,
though perhaps not closer.
As he is 3
years away, he’s a nice investment for OKC as he will have years of value if
they decide to move off of him at any point.
Montreal has a roster capable of winning the World Series
now.
This is a terrific deal for them as
they get a flexible contributor (though not a star) for a guy that won’t make
their ML team until season 44.
Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Bralin Kohn to the
Jacksonville Fake ID’s for Omar Elcano, Frank Graham, and Felipe Uribe
The often-advertised Kohn is a 29-year old high-inning
reliever with elite stuff.
His 2.69
career is 2
nd in the history of Hobbs.
He was perhaps, the best arm available in
Hobbs.
However, his 8-million dollar
salary, perhaps his age, and how much work it is use him correctly may have thrown
a few teams off of his scent. Despite these facts, the 6-time all-star makes
the Fake ID’s immediately significantly better.
By one set of projections, he’s a 5-win improvement all by himself.
The only question from the start was whether OKC was going
to get enough (beyond the salary relief).
Omar Elcano is a bit of a tweener.
When the 22-year old is played at SS he has a plus bat, but a below
average glove.
At 3
rd, he’ll give
a terrific glove and the 25-30 home run power, but will struggle to get on base
enough.
On the plus side he is ML ready with no service
time and is still improving a little.
His
probable outcome is a league average 3B for a team that could really use the 15
+/0 – he’ll put up.
The Fake ID’s did
not want to give up Frank Graham.
Only 20,
he already has a ML level bat and projects to a 40 HR with good OPS and no real
weakness at the plate.
The worry on
Graham was how will his glove come along.
While he already has a ML bat, he is no where near ready to play catcher
at the ML level yet. If he can reach a pitch calling of 50 or more he’s a plus ML
catcher that will make a couple of all-star games.
If not, he’ll only be usable in the AL as a
league average DH.
The lottery ticket is
Uribe.
Only 19, his stuff is already
fringe ML level.
He’s likely to have #2
starter stuff by the time he is done developing.
The question on him is whether he’ll put up enough
innings to be a star.
If not, he’ll be
an overqualified middle reliever in the mold of Jacksonville’s Juan Trinidad
(but with better stuff).
If you want to be critical of OKC’s rebuild this is where to
look.
They traded a true star for 3 ML
quality prospects, but guys have at least one “but”.
On the other hand, Kohn’s value was only
going to decrease, and this is likely to be the best deal that was available.
Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Lou Trammell to the Montreal
Shamrocks for Tony Carrasco
The value of this deal is obvious for both sides.
Trammel is plus bat who likely end the season
with 850-870 OPS, but is 34 and pricey.
As he is in the last year of his deal OKC
could have probably waited and got the type A pick, but instead decided to get
Carrasco, a 4
th OF’er with 0 service time.
More importantly, they save 2.9 million this
season that can go into the IFA market.
Montreal adds a nice bat to an already terrific roster and likely wasn’t
going to be a big player in the IFA market any way.
Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Dwight
Hee to the Colorado House of Horrors for Tony Chen
A nice deal for the Apocalypse as they deal a backup OF’er
for a back up catcher.
I would have done
this deal if they money was even, but OKC manage to save a couple of million
while they were at it.
Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Phil Kim to the Boston Beer
Bellies for Matty Reyes
This deal is a perfect example of why Blanch has 19 WS
titles.
Some people think the point of
trading is to “win” every trade.
It is
not!
It is to make both teams better
(though making yourself extra better).
When
you make the other guy better too they are inclined to want to do another deal
later.
The Apocalypse were an NL with a terrific
youngish DH.
At best he was going to get
120 at bats for OKC.
Instead they sent
him to the AL where he could play every day and make Boston immediately a
couple of wins better.
Reyes is an elite
setup man that some how got lost in Boston’s system.
With only 1 year of service time, he will be
cheap for this plus 2 more seasons.
He’s
32, but just at the same time he will start declining, he would have been cut
for getting more expensive than he was worth any way.
At worst, he be able to deal him at the
deadline for ML RP prospect.
In other
words, he tuned an asset he couldn’t use into one he could while making Boston
better in the process.
Oklahoma City Apocalypse deal Kelvim Hasegawa, Jerry King,
and 5 million to the Colorado House of Horrors for Yamil Cairo, Dean Canizaro, Bo
Burrell
Its tough to lose a 7-time all-star, but sometimes you have
to.
The likely HoF’er is still a terrific bat and
a usable fielder probably best used in LF.
However, owed 18 million over the next 2 years (12 guaranteed) he does
not fit on a rebuilding team.
Dealt with
Jerry King (an average first basemen on a good deal) he will fit will in
Colorado.
He probably makes Colorado 3-4
wins better this season and, as mentioned, is only under contract through his
age 35 season.
You never get to deal a 34-year old and restock your
franchise all at one.
Cairo is a
slightly younger, slightly cheaper, slightly worse version of King.
Canizaro is a fine defensive replacement OF’er,
but is limited to that role.
The usable
asset is Bo Burrell.
The 23-year old is
a high innings middle reliever that, as a DITR should still get a little
better.
He’ll likely be league average
in the end, but at 23 and making the minimum he’s a usable innings eater.
The deal also clears 6.8 million off of OKC this season.
IFA signings
OKC picked up Reynaldo Martin for 14.6 million.
The18 year old already has a ML 3B glove.
To field so well at 18 projects to a solid,
if not elite level ML defensive SS.
The
bat is a little harder to project his far out, but it looks fine if not terrific.
In others Martin should develop into above
average ML SS that should make an all-star game or three.
Not a HoF’er, but a terrific get for 14.6
million.
