pfontaine
SEA 42: 105-57, won Division, won World Series
You could see this coming. 71 wins..twice. 85 wins. 91 wins. 105 wins last year, punctuated by a W12 to end the regular season.
The champs had to replace a 3B and 2 C's this offseason; they got Giomar Almadova for a front-loaded, 4-year $20MM deal, Yimi Valdespin for 2 years, $7MM, and backup C Stephen Waldron in a trade with Montgomery. Almadova isn't a guarantee to help the offense but he could - their 3rd-ranked offense did it mostly with OBP last year so another power threat can't hurt. RF Del Perez is always in the rarified .400-OBP air, and now he has a partner in 1B Francisco Guerrero.
Kirk Marks certainly didn't disappoint in his first full SF season, winning 19 games and the CY. He's the ace, with a trio of #2's behind him in McLaughlin, Doubront and Pelaez. The late inning headliners are Jeimer Pena and closer Yordano Valdes, but Helling was very good last year and will continue to get critical innings.
There are no age issues here. The pitching has been A+ 2 years straight. The lineup is deep and gets on base. Short of 2 major injuries I can't see anything derailing this train.
Predicted Record: 106-56
rockydawg07
SEA 42: 78-84
The Luau Dogs have been up and down since their breakout (106 wins) Season 38, but have largely remade the team over the last 2 years.
They've gotten decidedly younger, with 5 rookies (or almost-rookies) on the opening day roster. Of those, I think Nathan Lindblom (SEA 40 #21) will have the most impact. Probably not a ROY threat, but he will potentially give the Dogs a 3rd 40-HR bat in the lineup (with 1B Brad Terry and 3B Boone Howard). Better offense? Maybe a touch...735 runs or so. Would be about league average.
The pitching staff has generally been good the last 5 years despite being on the anonymous side. Honolulu spent liberally to bring in career 4.00 ERA Tracy Stearns, who went as low as 3.12 and as high as 4.85 in his 3 full seasons in Richmond. Behind him in the rotation come Darwin Thornburgh, Eduardo Johnson, Junior Clevinger and Dingo Brock. Tucker Hood probably becomes the #1 or #2 starter shortly. Diego Romo and Corban Miles will handle the bulk of the important late-inning work. I dunno...lotta changes here and I think pitching-wise, they've backed up a little.
Predicted Record: 72-90. Maybe the offense is better, but I see pitching problems ahead.
finnski
SEA 42: 73-89
The Cards are coming off a couple of low-70's win totals and are trying to improve to relevance in the West. Let's doa quick lineup and rotation review:
Leading off, we have RF Darin Sherman, whose splits and good batting eye make him the right choice. His contact skills have limited his career OBP to .328. C Lee Henson bats second - decent ratings except for batting eye and especially dangerous versus lefties. LF Trever Fick is #3: I think that left split kills his stats...1 decent season and 1 bad season since getting a fulltime gig. At cleanup, 2B Howie Lee. Not your prototype patient cleanup hitter, but adequate power to do the job. At #5, longtime fan fav Armando Encarnacion, he of 444 career homers. At age 35 and in his contract year, he's hoping to muster up one more 30-HR season. At 6, 3B Paul Corsi. He fits the Scottsdale model of having power even at the expense of other ratings. At 7, CF Vinny Leary - no longer a credible CF or ML hitter. And at 8, SS Al Park...leans more toward an offensive SS, and he homered in the opener.
Billy Walker is the #1 in Scottsdale's rotation, and is the traditional 225+ IP starter. His pitch ratings are a bit low to provide consistent high-quality starts. #2 Paul Tanaka has had better long-term results due to his better pitches, but he looks like about 150 innings max. David Kivlehan combines great control with a low vL and couple of shaky pitches...his 4.68 career ERA seems about right. #4 Lawrence Hannity is of course a 5-time All-Star and former CY winner, but at this point he's just holding on for a paycheck. #5 Artie Gabriel probably belongs in AAA.
Overall, I'm not terribly bullish on the Cards this year. They'll hit for some power as always, but they don't get on base well, and the rotation from 3-5 is just short on talent.
Predicted Record: 70-92
palet99
SEA 42: 78-84
The Trappers lost a ton of 30-something FA's this offseason from a sub-.500 team, so we wouldn't necessarily expect new owner palet to contend immediately. They filled the vacancies mostly with bargain free agents (like RP Braulio Johnson for $695K and SP Will Acker for $1.5MM), although they did pony up $4.9MM for reliable SS Humberto Almora.
I expect the offense to be similar to last year's - it will be a bit of challenge to put up runs. 3B Hooks Gose is their only real standout and his .306/44 HR's last year was well above career norms. Their next-best hitter, Octavio Trevino, was a FA casualty - if they're very lucky new LF Francisco Guzman can match Trevino's output.
The front 3 of the rotation (Jenkins, Knepper and Timmons) are all capable of giving you a 3.50 ERA, and they're all capable of giving you a 4.85. #4 Acker is a higher range than that, and #5 Rooney, he's cheap. Felipe Garza and Myles Sweeney are getting a little grey, but still have it for the late innings.
It's a rebuilding year with a conservative payroll for Salt Lake.
Predicted Record: 69-93
Looks like that team in the Honolulu place is doing a little better that predicted.
ReplyDelete