rourke
SEA 43 Start: 20-23
Baffling team...I completely whiffed on the prediction last year, picking them to finish .500 and they actually rallied to win 93.
So maybe this year's .500-ish start is a similar false flag. The hitters are doing their jobs - they're on pace to score 945 runs vs. last year's 783 (Diego Marmol .325/9/34) - but the team's ERA has slipped from a #2-rated 3.79 to a still-respectable but 6th-placed 4.22 (yes, scoring is up across the board). 2nd-year man Luther Padden (#8 of the Season 36 draft) is proving he's the real deal (7-2, 3.05 ERA). But the 3-4-5 starters Miller, (and especially) Nakamura (5.28 ERA) and Travis Justice (9.47, yikes) are struggling. Justice is a bold experiment with the 20 control and otherwise-good ratings, but with a couple of long stints now with more walks than innings pitched, it's one that needs to end soon (Marc Cromer has given up no earned runs in 15 IP, so he's a viable option).
Oakland turned it around after a slow start last year, and these pieces are all there to do it again. I think they'll still top 85 wins.
Predicted record: 87-75
werniss
SEA 43 Start: 20-23
In last year's preview I was optimistic that the trade for SS Brian Neill would pay big dividends, as ORber Brantley had committed 40-something errors (I think) the year before. Welp, Neill only played 186 innings and was released, but the HOH seem to have hit a happy medium with the OK-hit, OK-field tandem of K.J. Morse and Pedro De La Vega. Better defense than Brantley, anyway, although now Brantley's bat has disappeared.
As usual, Colorado tops the runs-scored list, although (also as usual), their road OPS suggests they're more like the 4th-best offense. Likewise, they're 15th in ERA but about league average if you only look at road ERA. This is actually a little surprising with names like Stock, Pedro Martinez and Aurelio Duran on the roster. A closer look reveals that Stock reverts to his 2.oo ERA form away from Coors, but Martinez is at 5.25 on the road and Duran...with 98 ratings for both splits...is at 7.27. Neither seems to have ever gotten used to pitching at Coors (can fake baseball players develop fake psychoses?).
With Greg Ward (hitting .394) returned to his favorite park, the HOH are improved this year but still seem short of playoff caliber.
Predicted record: 80-82
iceman67
SEA 43 Start: 18-25
My favorite defensive team (I've remarked for several straight previews about their 227 + plays in seasons 40 and 41) seems to have demonstrated just how hard it is to win with a defense-first plan (or maybe how hard it is to maintain a great defense). They led the league again with 116 + plays last year but dropped 70 runs to 730 and limped to 3rd in the division (after I picked them to win it!).
The pithing has been steadily deteriorating since Season 40's 4.12 ERA (4th)...4.26 in Season 41, 4.35 last year, and a frightening 5.62 so far this. There are good arms here - Ludwick, Alomar, Brooks and others - but they seem to be largely those moderate-split, pretty-good pitches type of guys that can have some wild statistical swings from year to year. With other standouts on this roster - CF Cespedes, 1B Mateo - I don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong here. Just a bad start...that could turn into a down year.
Predicted Record: 70-92
jcairns
SEA 43 Start: 25-18
Yep, it was only 13-18 seasons ago that the Jin-Chi Itou and mongoose_22 - led Desperados were beating up my old AL entry in the playoffs every year. 2 owners, 1 alias and a fairly fast turnaround later, Vegas is back in contention and leading the AL West.
This year's club has moved Greg Stock to SS to get more bats into the lineup - either Santo Pujols at 3B or Damon Ainsworth at 2B (I think they're better off with Ainsworth and letting Eddie Fonville take over at 3B, but Pujols can play). Stock hasn't been terrible at SS and Fonville will win a bunch of GG's if he stays at 1 position. Willie Taylor has started slowly but you know he'll knock in 100. The Joe Wilk/Treni Cruz geriatric 1B/DH tandem was working pretty well but Cruz has now popped a disc...they're 4th in runs scored; this lineup will still be A-OK.
Can the pitching hold up? They've jumped from 8th in ERA last year to 2nd with a 3/5ths new rotation (Bernard Shea, Mark Cloud and Nipsey Levis). They also spiffed up the bullpen with the signings of Marcos Presley and Ehire Quintana, so they can offer quality arms all 9 innings in many games (and especially in the playoffs). The fielding percentage has fallen a little from last year (but it's working - the team OPS is 80 points higher).
They've got a lot of expiring contracts on older players, so they're going to have to hit free agency hard again next season, but for now they're the clear AL West favorite.
Predicted Record: 95-67
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