jmercer77
SEA 42: 80-82
Quiz: how can a team drop 14 wins from Season 41 to Season 42 while improving its team ERA from 4.45 to 4.21? 2 just-beyond-the-surface explanations:
#1 - the pitching improvement was illusory - the NL improved from 4.62 to 4.46;
#2 - the 'rocks went from 26-21 in 1-run games in SEA 41 to a mind-bogglingly unlucky 14-34 last year.
So much for crazy stats. This is a good team and they'll recover. Heath Dickerson and Brooks Bell are top sluggers in their primes who rack up awards every season. They'll lose a little offense with the Boone Howard trade but Colby McDowell will get a few of those runs back on defense (and the trade will help the pitching down the road - Benny Lira is a quality arm with the potential to throw 120 innings). The offense should be able to plate 800 runs.
My concern is pitching. The Mark Pettite - lead rotation looks good, but they lost a couple of quality relievers in FA and (even if he stretches out to 150 IP), Sam Teagarden can't handle the late innings by himself.
Transaction Prediction: they acquire a RP at the deadline (if they're contending, which they will be).
Predicted Record: 88-74 (and a lot better than 14-34 in 1-runners).
Zattack
SEA 42: 81-81, won Division, lost to Florida in Round 1
Milwaukee is also coming off a down year (amazingly their 1-run record of 18-31 was nearly as unlucky as Montreal's) but it was still enough to take the Division.
Their only significant off-season loss was verteran OF Rick Black - end of the line for a great one who was in the running for 2 or 3 MVP's. The Chedda has reloaded almost exclusively from its (and others') farm systems, bringing up vL catcher Howard Perdomo (.829 OPS in a 26-game cup of coffee last season), 1B Pat Neal (a Rule V who was the #12 pick in SEA 38), DH Bartolo Martin, and SP Renato Molina, a SEA 38 IFA. I doubt there are any ROY winners here, but they're solid contributors.
As with most teams, there are pitching bright spots and more pitching questions. You have to love the top of the rotation guy, Pat Jodie (I think his 99 vR is the only one I've ever seen), and the Torrez/Andrus late inning pair should be good (but hasn't yet). Everything in between looks a bit suspect...the kind of staff that can win 83 one year, 92 the year after, and 81 the season after that (actual history).
Predicted Record: tough team to predict...I think they'll probably be better as the 1-run record reverts to the average...85-77.
dakar
SEA 42: 79-83
Is this the year? Their trade for SP Pascual Castillo signals the return to contention after a long rebuild. It's still a conservative ML payroll of $43MM with a bunch of min-salary youngsters and a few older, budget FA guys, but this team will be in the mix from now on.
ROY rightfielder Harry Estrada and on-base savant Bo Guerrier (C) lead the offense, which is going to be better than last year's 768 runs (11th) when they call up 3B Yem Higashioka ($31.5MM IFA in SEA 39).
The best parts of the pitching staff are Castillo and the 2 2nd-year short relievers, Edgard Mendoza and Happy Cepeda (either of whom could step in as the closer on most teams right now). SEA 39's 14th pick, Matt Brown, is probably a better option than most of the other rotation candidates and I'm betting we'll see him promoted in 20 games.
So they'll contend this year. The bad news for the rest of us is that there's plenty of more talent still brewing on the farm, especially SEA 40 mega-IFA Joaquin Merced. His ratings after 2 seasons are quite similar to Estrada's now, and Estrada's coming off a .325/41/112 (in 134 games).
Predicted Record: 90-72
Philadelphia Erffdoggs
wholck
SEA 42: 75-87
My memory could be sketchy, but I seem to recall Philly getting off to a hot start last year and then fading badly. They might have decided to take one more step back before commiting all their prospects (and they're good) to the majors. I'm looking at a couple of the bargain-bin FA signings and promotions of AA players...I think we're seeing a little retreat from the 'doggs this year.
When they go for it, they'll be formidable. We've seen a year of Tomas Alcantera - we predicted he'd be good and he was 12-8, 3.13 - good. There are a pair of nice hitters in AAA - 1B Britt Hughes (S39 #10) and OF Destin Shea (S40 #5) - not sure if we'll see them in the majors this year or not. Hughes is about as good as he's going to get but Philly still has Harvey Tracy under contract for this year. And a couple of seasons away there's OF Tony Martin (S41 #2).
So it won't be long before this lineup is really rocking. They'll have to find some good bargains among FA pitchers to compliment the run-scoring, but they certainly did that last year.
Overall, it's a pretty optimistic outlook for next year and beyond, just not so much for this year.
Predicted Record: 70-92
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