bjc30
SEA 42: 90-72, Wild Card, advanced to WS and lost to San Francisco
Bjc30 got them to the promised land last year, but fell in the Series. That's not bad, but what is better, is that the team seems poised to extend the current run of wining seasons into the foreseeable future, so there should be other chances. The payroll is still low and the minor league pipeline is still full.
Last year they were generally among the top 5 in the AL in pitching but mid-pack in hitting. Look for the hitting too improve. Destin Williamson and Chick Rosenthal are probably the best set of corner OFs in the game. Miguel Fuentes is a solid bat at 1B, as is Willie Germen at DH. All the guys playing up the middle are defense first type of players, although Turner Fletcher at 2B is an excellent table setter against right handers.
One weak spot in the lineup is 3B, where Jim Cook is playing out of position and does not have enough bat. Luckily there are 3 AAA third basemen who would be decent stopgaps, and bjc has an excellent trading chip to offer up in young DH B.J. Kirby.
The pitching was the strength of the team in general last year, and the rotation is anchored by rookie Shigetoshi Bong, Lawrence Morey and Jumbo Morris. Pedro Flores is the closer and the team added Chad Reid and Cesar Santiago and looks to a bigger role for Yangervis Johnson in setup roles. A really interesting note on bjc's pitching staff: he definitely is willing to overlook vsL, and his pitchers prove that if the other numbers are strong enough, it is not terribly important.
Season 43 prediction: a slight uptick to 93-69.
silentpadna
SEA 42: 103-59, won Division, advanced to ALCS and lost to Richmond
The cream of an outstanding division. Montgomery was essentially tied with Boston for best offense, and top 5 in the AL in both pitching and fielding. The core of the team are in their prime, there is a decent sprinkling of kids, and the only player older than 33 is still a very productive pitcher: Yean Carlos Posada.
The rotation starts with Julio Cano and Vic Merced. Silentpadna expects them to regress, but they still look strong from this reporters standpoint. Montgomery goes with tandem starters in the 3 and 4 slots, highlighted by the outstanding Edgmer Gil (22-1 last year) and 22 year old Nori Zhang, who should improve upon a nice rookie season when he might have been rushed to the majors. Stalwarts in a strong bullpen are Miguel Cedeno, Zeke Sears, Gregorio Martin and Odrisamer Balboa.
While Richmond is playing the long game and looks to win 90-100 every year for a while, silentpadna is going all in to win 100+ for the next 2-3 years. As he put it, "I'm not a patient rebuilder."
Season 43 prediction: down a game just due to random fluctuations and playing in the strongest division in the world. 102-60, but they make the Series this year.
groth911
SEA 42: 99-63, Wild Card, advanced to Division Round and lost to Montgomery
You always have to feel for a team that wins 99 games and finishes second in their division. The AL South is just tough. The Frogs won in a fun manner; great pitching, decent hitting, great base running and great defense. Oh, and also with surprisingly few big stars.
So what about this year? Groth lost a ton of players to FA this season, but it looks like he is doing more of a retool than a rebuild, as he traded a prospect for 2B Victor Brady and signed a couple of FAs to help offset his losses.
To open the season he has a 4 man rotation. Cesar Benavente, Al Montgomery and Lastings Wood are all quality pitchers, but Jerome Porter looks like he should be a mopup pitcher at best....preferably in AAA. I'm guessing that season 39's OA #30 pitcher Matt Owen gets an early call up from AA. Assuming he replaces Porter, this is still a good rotation.
Chaz Ross is still their closer, but this year newly acquired Marcell Calixte replaces aging Marcos Presley as the main setup man. Erick Duncan, Emil Ontiveros and Jeff Arrieta are other quality arms in the pen. The FA loss of Ernest Carey will be hard to replace.
They lost a big bat in Edgardo Mercedes to division rival Montgomery which hurts, but second year man Alexander Pickett looks poised to break out as his replacement. (Maybe not so much on defense though.) Base thief, leadoff hitter and all around ratings oddity Ezdra Rodriguez will still be a big part of the team, and newcomer Chuck Sanburn looks to regain his power/speed combo reputation to round out the OF. Another FA, Richard Hara takes over at C and should provide a little offense. Youngster Jeurys Vargas has taken over at third and provides some nice power, but looks like an error machine.
Season 43 prediction: a dropoff in talent plus a tough division and too many key players over 30 spells regression. Looks like 86-76 to me.
bigmattr
SEA 42: 62-100
Last season, New Orleans had the worst offense in the AL by both OPS and runs scored. The only things they did well were draw walks and avoid strikeouts. Pitching was a bit better, but still in the bottom half in every meaningful category. (Oddly enough, they did have an amazing 28 complete games.) Fielding was generally above average. So how do they go about improving that showing under the new MWR?
The first thing I would do is maximize my best asset. Even if it costs complete games Super Ace Chris Osborne should get more than 29 starts. Osborne, along with Stan Story, Harry Batista, Rene Jenkins and Chad Haynes make a pretty good rotation. Unfortunately, their goodness is wasted the minute the bullpen has to come in. They are the equivalent of Ray Bradbury's 'firefighters' in Fahrenheit 451. I tried to hold one up as the best of the bunch and couldn't do it.
The hitting is a mixed bag, but the bright spots are harder to find than the dim. CF Touki Epstein is one bright spot. He perfectly illustrates matt's emphasis on batting eye and OBP, with a 98 eye rating. Dwight Hee, Mark Henry and bargain FA acquisition Ervin Payton can be mixed and matched around him to make a representable OF. Payton has tremendous power.
Eugenio Martin should be a very good hitter as a DH and occasional C, but he is overmatched by RH pitchers. Bengie Maduro is the overall best bet at catcher. Bottom line is they should struggle to even match last year's low output.
Well, this is rebuilding team, so it makes sense that they are looking more to the future, so what do they have in the way of major league ready callups? Sadly, in AAA the answer is bupkus. AA, however, is another story. The future of the franchise begins there. Led by Quinn Lewis and Engel Bastardo, there are some guys who will be good players, and some of them could probably justify a callup this year.
Season 43 prediction: Just not enough here. New Orleans will struggle with the MWR. 59-103.
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