torrone
SEA 42: 91-71, won Division, lost in first round to Richmond
Another solid for the Bellies but a disappointing playoff showing. What's changed?
They had to replace Jaret Paquette's 200 innings (although he wasn't very effective the last w seasons) and went expensive with Niko Ryan and cheap with Mickey Scott - Ryan's the better pitcher but not by all that much.
Boston also signed old pro Matt Redmond (I think to his 10th team since leaving KC) to play a little CF and a little defense everywhere. torrone tells me this is the season Yoslan Goya moves to RF, so Darin Gil gets the first crack at the CF job.
Defensive reshuffling notwithstanding, the lineup will put up around 900 runs. I don't think it's the best offense in the AL - the ballpark helps, and their road OPS suggest they're around the 5th or 6th best offense - but it's pretty effective thanks to good contact and 500+ walks.
The team ERA actually improved a little last year, although it was still 14th in the AL (4.82). Ryan, especially, is an attempt to address that. He was great in Vegas last year, but had tough seasons in a great pitchers' park in Tacoma, so he's a bit of a crap shoot. He should still be a big improvement on Paqette, though. Cheng, Gabriel and Scott round out the rotation - they're competent starters but in Fenway are likely to post 5+ ERA's.
I have to say Boston seems pretty predictable - they'll score plenty of runs and win 90 or close to it.
Predicted Record: 88-74
hystericslap
SEA 42: 80-82
Disappointing step back for Pittsburgh, who looked like the genius of the league in Season 41.
How will they try to get back on track?
The first wave of offseason moves was the departure of a bunch of 30-somethings in free agency, putting pretty much a total roster rebuild on the table.
The next move was more of a nod to the future, trading Wily Osoria for a pretty fair catcher prospect in Wellington Rojas.
Free agency brought a handful of lower-$ free agent signings (suggesting more of a rebuild season), with P Courtney Hermanson and slugger Nicholas Wilkins the biggest names.
And they capped off the offseason by promoting a couple of filler pitchers - Kenny Hammonds and Larry Trujillo. Trujillo was #29 in his draft and Hammonds #44, so expectations aren't overly high.
Combined with their moderate payroll ($51MM), and the youth of their best prospects, Pittsburgh's offseason strongly suggests a rebuilding season.
Predicted Record: 73-89
aaamizzou
SEA 42: 60-102
Durham's coming off an all-out rebuild year...where are they headed?
Durham ushered out Jerry Northcraft, Zoltan Keppinger (who looks like he's done at 458 HR's) and others, so their payroll is down to a manageable $50MM for the Major Leaguers.
They replenished with a big crop of rookies, the best of whom is 2B Glendon Sheffield, who was originally drafted by Jacksonville #8 in Season 38 and 2 trades later he's starting for Durham. He's an adequate defensive 2B whose best weapon is a keen batting eye. Top end - an All-Star game or 2.
This looks like another rebuilding season, although Yasiel Cayones' offensive pyrotechnics shouldn't miss a beat in the moe from one hitter's park to another. I'd suggest a trade but I think they need him to hit the mwr (note, Durham's mwr this year is 60). Let's make that a prediction: if Durham find itself 7 or 8 games ahead of mwr pace at any point before the trade deadline, Cayones gets a new home.
Predicted Record: 62-100
pak4427
SEA 42: 82-80
Nice...a 14-win improvement and 26 better than Season 40.
Their step forward has been propelled by young lineup talent - C Bernie Guzman and 3B Alex Reid - with assists from veteran 1B Yoervis Barrios (.287/32/105) and some unexpectedly good pitching performances (Menses, Benitez and the departed Corey Booker).
They'll get another rookie boost when they promote Season 41's #1 overall pick, Donald Ritz (I'm assuming they'll bring him up even though he's only had 2 MiL seasons because he's 21 and can contribute at the ML level already, and his PAT/TEM combo suggests he'll never go free agent. Get another ML into his career. Plus, I think he'll develop better in his 3rd year with better ML coaching).
So these guys could well top 800 runs this year, moving them into the top 4 or 5 AL offenses. Unfortunately, their pitching won't keep up, even though it performed admirably last year (about league average). Their top pitchers are just not at the level of their top hitters. Everybody see what KC did with the Castillo trade this offseason? Got him for the 14th pick of a godawful draft (OK, the other guy Gillheeney is worth something, too). Could Toledo move the 7th pick of that same terrible draft (2B/OF Napoleon Rodgers) to a motivated seller for a top SP?
Predicted Record: 85-77
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