topoftheworl
SEA 43 Start: 28-8
Last year's playoff bobble seems to have motivated the ID's, who are leading the NL in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed (by a healthy margin). New CF Vic Campos is absolutely lighting it up - his 1.010 OPS is 240 points above his career average. He'll cool off, but he has plenty of help with Tanner Mlicki OPS'ing 1.098. Lou Crawford .932 and Omar DeLeon .908.
With Bralin Kohn notching 13 saves already, Jacksonville's pen has lead them to a record-challenging 2.71 team ERA with almost a fourth of the season behind us. While the bullpen has the star names with Kohn, Ernest Carey and Tony Arias, the starters have been just as good: Juan Trinidad has put up a shocking 1.31 ERA so far, Esmerling Martin a 2.13, and Shane Jenkins a 3.02.
To top it off, the ID's defense has recorded 31 good plays against 2 bad plays.
I'm not sure what scenario has J'ville not making and winning the World Series...perhaps someone with a pair of ace starters could shut them down and take a series.
Predicted Record: they "cool off" to 110 wins
rdierkers
SEA 43 Start: 19-18
Slow start for Columbus, who has 4 straight 90-win seasons under the guidance of rdierkers. The Buckeyes had some FA losses, but they also brought back most of their aging former stars like Nick Green and Addison Oropesa...are they just getting old?
The offense OPS'd .769 (3rd) last year, but has dropped to .725 (9th) this year. The 36-yo Green still has it with an .848 OPS, while 33-yo Yamil Ibanez and 34-yo Oropesa have seen slow starts. I think we're just seeing normal year-to-year variation among these hitters, although the power ratings for all these guys are dropping fast.
The pitching numbers are also down a little, from a league-leading 3.30 ERA to 3.60 (4th). Nothing strikes me as terribly unusual in their stats so far...Dan Keller is off to a terrible start but is almost certain to revert to a much-lower average ERA. Rapp, Punto and Viciedo are all pitching really well, so I think their staff is pretty healthy.
Well, it's not a young team, but but it's not falling apart with aging ratings either. They'll recover to...
Predicted Record: 88-74
mlhutch
SEA 43 Start: 17-20
Another slow start, this time from a 7-straight 90-game winner. This is pretty much a pitching problem as the Paladins are lurking near the cellar of the pitching stats with a 4.41 ERA. Vic Quintero started poorly and the bullpen has been all kinds of shaky, but the 4/5ths of the rotation has been solid. Tony Ramsay and the rest of the 'pen will be better as the season progresses.
The offense has been off a little, but considering Bud Robbins' atrocious start (.232/3/15) and Jack Hayes' apparent confusion about his off-season, Paladins management has to be a little encouraged. It's entirely possible - dare I say probable? - that Pawtuckett leads the NL in OPS for the rest of the season.
This is the danger of doing "previews" at the 40-game mark; 40 games makes an impression but frequently it's an inaccurate one.
Predicted Record: 86-76
jake72
SEA 43 Start: 12-24
Not sure what's going on in Baltimore, as the Crabs have been .500-ish and competitive for awhile. Is this the housecleaning before a rebuild?
Maybe. The Crabs shipped out veteran 2B Victor Brady and 1B Philip Kennedy (a bit of a head-scratcher, as Kennedy is only 25. Then again, he had underwhelming under-.730 OPS's in 2 of his 3 full seasons in Baltimore). But then they turned around a traded a younger 2B in Roger Wilson for 32-yo SP Dave Waters.
Their FA moves confirmed the budget-cutting rebuild mode with the signings of 35-yo Branden Clarkson (1 year, $965K) and 38-yo Ike Allen (1 year, $830K) - both are giving them about what they paid for (.700 OPS). The payroll is definitely on the way down at $49.6MM for the major-leaguers.
The new mwr will be interesting for teams like BAL and OKC that have decided to cut it close in the early years rather than bank some wins to cushion against the uncertainty of a 4-year requirement. I think the Crabs will be OK this year but a 55-60 win season puts them at risk down the road.
Predicted Record: 60-102
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