Sunday, January 6, 2019

Updates on the OKC and Jacksonville posts



The Milwaukee Chedda send Benito Feliz, Tony Bolling, and Houston Bennett to the Oklahoma City Apocalypse for Jecksson Bailey, Emil Ontiveros, and 3 million. 



This trade is why you always ask.  It makes sense for both sides, but it’s a killing for the Chedda.  They get a useful reliever, a starter level corner OF and all it cost them was a middle of the bullpen guy with 0 service time.  Feliz is fringe ML quality as a 5th OF, and Bennett has no place on a ML roster.  Plus OKC even picked up the cash this year. 

Still the logic for OKC is clear too.  They’ll make the MWR this season with or without Bailey and Ontiveros.  They get a usable, young relief pitcher and save the million they would have spent on declining Jecksson’s option next season.  They literally gave up nothing that mattered to them and got a small something that will.  Congrats to the Chedda for seeing the difference in Bailey and Ontiveros’ value to the two teams.



The San Juan Padres send Dave Thompson to the Oklahoma City Apocalypse for Omar Elcano

This trade makes sense for both sides.  OKC is time line is a few seasons away so they send Elcano, a ML ready prospect, for a guy 2-3 seasons away.  While the Padres are a middling team (35-39), the NL south is so bad that they lead the division.  In Elcano they add 3B with above average defense and an average bat.  He’ll have a little trouble getting on base, but he should be able to produce 20 HR’s and 10 SB’s without striking out too much.  Further, his excellent makeup means that bat may still improve (my scouts think he will improve from plus contact to elite contact).  The same is true for his glove which could improve to elite defensive 3B.  Looking at San Juan’s roster they may play Elcano at SS.  I actually really like this as Elcano is less of a disaster at SS than Almonte and Almonte slides over to 3B where he is a plus defender.  Almonte is a much better defender than Placido Gomez who is there now, Elcano is better at SS than Almonte and Elcano’s bat is better than Gomez.  It’s a win all the way around.

Dave Thomson is a recent mid 1st round pick.  He’ll have the range to play CF or 2B, though he’ll be more valuable at 2B than CF (right handed, glove that is a little shaky).  At the plate he should eat up lefties and be acceptable against righties.  If I am guessing (always hard to do with a 19-year old) I would say ML average starting 2B. 

In a vacuum I think I’d rather have Elcano, but its pretty darn close and has more to do with my bias towards the sure thing of a guy who has already developed.  In context, I really like this deal for both sides.



The Wichita Plainsmen send Sean Cameron to the Jacksonville Fake ID’s Tony Votto, Esteban Alvarez, and Edge Baker



If you hear cursing and gnashing of teeth coming from Alaska it will be over this trade.  The Fake ID’s pickup Cameron, who has excellent contact, power, and speed, but is really only usable against right handers.  The good news is that about 70% of pitchers are right handed, but it’s a fair haul to give for a guy who can never be a 600 at bat center piece.  Still, since the Fake ID’s believe they are in the discussion of World Series contenders the logic of the deal is there.

The Plainsman continue their rebuild by picking up a very nice piece in Votto.  Right now, he has the arm to be a back of the bullpen guy and should develop into a Setup A guy.  Not closer good, but that next level down.  Baker is a lottery ticket.  He’s very young, but also very far away from being ML quality.  I think he develops into a back of the bullpen ML quality guy.  ML quality, but nothing special.  Alvarez was a nice IFA bargain for the Fake ID’s ($600,000), but projects to be ML backup with excellent pinch running skills.  Not a difference maker, but good organizational depth for the Plainsman. 



This deal make sense for both sides.  Used correctly Cameron cam provide 850-900 OPS with speed to a team that has the depth to coverup his weaknesses.  The Plainsman get an excellent relief prospect and two other guys who will make a ML roster for a guy that if there was no deal they probably would have cut next season anyway.



The Milwaukee Chedda send Kes Bittle to the Jacksonville Fake ID’s for Gabby Beckett and 2.1 million.

For the second time in this post the Chedda benefit from being the right team at the right time.  Having traded away Votto, picking up Bittle softens the blow for the Fake ID’s system.  In a vacuum I’d rather have Votto, but its close enough.  With the acquisition of Cameron Beckett’s at bats were going to dry up.  Beckett is a better defensive replacement but isn’t nearly the hitter.  For the Fake ID’s Cameron just, in theory, is a better fit for their needs (being 11th in runs scored for example). 

The Chedda once again pickup a credible ML starter with a plus glove for LF, gets Jackson to pay for him, and only has to give up a relief pitcher that was 2 seasons from helping them.  This is a terrific deal for both sides, but especially terrific for the Chedda.

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