OK, here are your top 10 draftees. Most of the projections here are mine, with 14/14 scouting. The only 1 of these whose projections are based on my ADV of 6 is #8 McGee. Where I note another author or helper, the projections mentioned could be from higher or lower levels. Enjoy.
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#1 to Toledo - Donald Ritz, RF or 1B:
Projects to be a high-OBP performer with occasional BA gusts into the
300's. 20-25 HR's a year with a few stolen bases thrown in. Will
eventually have enough durability that he can just about be a
set-and-forget part of the lineup. Position is the only real question, as my COL scouting of 14 projected a GLOVE of only 41. Given that he's starting at 36 he could well exceed that. Likely to develop a superior RF arm, so my guess is he'll be a pretty decent RF - big win versus just having a lunkhead 1B. Late note: just saw his current ratings - this guy could hold his own in the Majors now, so the odds he hits optimistic projections went way up. Improved from GRADE: Stand-Up Double to GRADE: Sliding Triple. It's almost impossible to over-achieve with the #1 pick - the variance is all on the downside. So the question with the #1 pick is, "Did they screw it up?" and the answer here is emphatically no.
#2 to Philadelphia - Tony Martin, RF: Will have 50 HR power, which is a good thing with his speed. The joke around Salem, MO’s
Bourbon High School is that takes a dinger to get him to first base.
Because God has a sense of humor, he also has world class base-running. I
think this means that he knows what
he can’t do. Tony also has plus contact and no real weakness at the
plate except speed. He should be a sure thing with excellent
health/durability/makeup. His one area of concern is defense. If he
hits or comes near his projects he should be fine in RF. If he does not he may just ended up be 1B with plus defense and an over qualified arm (thanks to top for the report). GRADE: Stand-Up Double...Philly was supposed to come away with one of the top talents here and they did.
#3 to Scottsdale - Jerome Mathis, SP: First controversial pick. I moved him down to #16 on my board based on a vR projection of only 58, although my scouts also projected A+ ratings for control and vL, and pretty good #1 and #2 pitches. But at age 22, with starting splits of 57 and 48, uh-oh. Those wouldn't be encouraging starting splits for a high-schooler. Add in the obvious conclusion that his control and vL won't get near the lofty level predicted by my increasingly-worried-for-their-jobs scouts, and we have our first not-reaching base grade. GRADE: One-Hopper Back To The Pitcher.
#4 to Jacksonville - B.C. Querecuto, P: I had him #1 on my board based on decent-not-great HS scouting, but now that I see his currents I have to admit I'm a little disappointed. My scouts were projecting both splits to get up to 90, but now it looks like about 85vL and 74 vR - not bad but not the elite level my scouts were squirting their pants over. Disappointing starting level for his pitches, too. Let's hope he's one of those rare HS prospects who jumps 12 points across the board in his second season and another 10 in his 3rd. GRADE: Solid Single but given what I see of Ainsworth's currents and Tartamella's projections JAX could have done better here.
#5 to Las Vegas - Damon Ainsworth, 2B: Currents: He is 22, so his currents should be a pretty good indicator of what he'll be. They suggest an excellent all-round hitter with very good power for a MI. His glove is going to have to improve a lot, but it could; we'll see what the projections say about that.
Top-end speed, great health, and better-than-average DUR are all great bonuses. If his Range/Glove look like they can get to 75/75, making him a credible 2B defender, this will be our first HOME RUN selection. Projections: Probably the best all-round hitter in this class; very good contact skills, top eye, excellent splits. Not the power hitter that Martin or Nathan will be, but could hit 30-35 a year easily. Defense should be OK for a 2B but won't win any GG's. Still, a 2B who will hit like this guy will go to a lot of All-Star Games and be on a few MVP ballots. (thanks to weeback for help with the porjections) GRADE: Home Run
#6 to Kansas City - Frank Panik, SS: Defensive wizard with a pretty good bat. Superior range and laser-beam arm accuracy plus good glove and arm strength; will be a GG candidate at CF, 2B or 3B. As a hitter he'll have + power for a CF/IF and will handle lefties better than righties. Only average as a contact/on-base guy, but acceptable for such a good and versatile defender. Not going to dazzle anyone on the basepaths. Durability, health and makeup all project as very high - always nice bonuses to get. (Thanks to dakar for this report). GRADE: Broken-Bat Single, given that Tartamella was available and their scouts had him at #1.
#7 to Wichita - Don Tartamella, SP: Based on Projections, he looks like the classic ace of a staff, although I don't think he's going to finish a lot of games. He may top the world in strikeouts a few times, though. Excellent control, very good splits and a 4-deep assortment of good pitches. A lot has to go right, but 20 seasons or so from now we could be debating his HOF credentials. Currents: We're not going to see these for awhile but I bet he'll sign. GRADE: Tape-Measure Home Run, based solely on projections and him slipping to #7.
#8 to Pittsburgh - William McGee, CF: (based only on currents and my very low ADV, so grains of salt needed). All-or-nothing hitter...the Mickey Tettleton or Adam Dunn of CF's (without the high walk totals). Low-200's batting averages. Some decent walk totals but his OBP is going to be tough to live with. He's got some thunder in the bat , though - he's starting with a higher power rating than either Martin or Nathan, likely the best power prospects this year. He's going to be a rangy CF - currents and projections both suggest it. I don't know if his glove will be good enough to make him an elite defensive CF, although it's starting pretty high at 70. At this point in the draft a pretty nice get. GRADE: Ringing Double OFF the RCF Wall.
#9 to Chicago - Eric White, 2B: similar as a hitter to the player picked right before him, McGee, only better. Better contact, splits and eye, and at 19 his power is already 88 (gotta love it when any current rating, and especially power, pops up much higher than you could've hoped for). And a switch-hitter to boot. I think his other ratings are going to be good enough for him to have some monster seasons in Wrigley - think something like .270/62 HR's, .350 OBP. They're also low enough to produce some disappointing .230/40 HR/.300 OBP seasons. Starting at 49 will his glove be good enough to play 2B? With power like his you could justify keeping him at 2B with a Glove of 65, I guess. But you could also flip the logic and make him a GG LF and go find a defensive 2B and maybe be better off. Because he's so much like McGee before him (better hitter, not as good on D), he gets a similar grade. GRADE: Ringing Double OFF the LCF Wall.
#10 to Salem - Byron Huff, RP: One of the 2 RP's (Benny Lira was the other) I was hoping would slip to me at 17 (neither did, as this world has gotten to the point that even relatively low-volume RP's aren't bargains anymore). My scouts projected near-off-the-charts ratings across the board, and once again were exceedingly optimistic. For me he's the SR version of #4 Querecuto - if he has normal development he could be something like a CON/vR/vL of 80/74/78 with P1 and P2 of maybe 83/68. Not bad at all but not what the scouts were selling. GRADE: Hard Grounder Through For A Single, but this is the point of the draft where you hope for a real steal.
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