OK,
here are your 2nd 10 draftees. Most of the projections here are mine,
with 14/14 scouting. Where I note another author or helper, the
projections mentioned could be from higher or lower levels. Enjoy.
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#11 to New York - Julio Rivera, RP: Projections Report by top: Julio Rivera is a high innings RP. He’ll make a solid ML pitcher with
plus control and plus vs. R. Further, he has an elite first pitch and ability to keep the ball in park. What will stop him from
being the next Sam Stock or Bralin Kohn is his only acceptable 2nd pitch
and vs. L. Also, while he projects to have a slightly poorer
stamina/durability profile to those two pitchers. Currents: OK, his splits are starting in the 40's, so could get into the upper 60's with pitches in the 70's...that would be pretty good ML Pitcher. GRADE: Ground-Rule Double.
#12 to Colorado - Alan Martin, SS (report by top): Alan Martin is listed at SS,
but will have to play 3B. The high durability/high health/high makeup
sure thing may have trouble finding at bats in the ML. He’ll steal 30
bases with efficiency and will hold his own against lefties. He also
has a plus (but not special)
batting eye. However, he his lack of contact, power, an effectiveness
against righties will probably limit him to a 250/340/360 ish line
(again, with speed plus speed and base running). I don’t dislike
Martain, but I’d have like him better at 25-35. GRADE: now that we're in the mid-range of the first round, I ask, "Should he have gone earlier (AKA "Are there worse players ahead of him?")" and "Are there better players behind him?" To the first, "No, there are not worse players ahead of him." To the second, "Yes, at least Lira, Nathan, Jenkins and Burch are better." Infield Popup.
#13 to Honolulu - Benny Lira, RP: My 14 scouting projected decent control, superior splits, and 2 good pitches followed by one pretty bad one, and even though he's a college guy and won't develop as much as the kids do, his currents say he cold get in the ballpark of his projections. Optimistically, he gets to CON/vL/vR of 77/82/80 and P1-P3 of 83/74/39. I had Lira and #10 Huff at nos 5 and 4 on my board, figuring at least one wold make it to me at 17. RP's just aren't undervalued the way they used to be (see the second trade down on this Trade History page). GRADE: Home Run.
#14 to Hartford - Haywood Evans, SP: My projections (14) suggested a high pitch-count starter with AAA splits but 2 lights-out pitches and 3 more pretty good ones...maybe good enough pitches to overcome limited splits. Unfortunately his currents confirm the low splits but also suggest more modest pitch ratings than my scouts did. Personally I've been wanting to experiment with pitchers who had kind of mediocre splits but good pitches, but Evans doens't really fit the profile. This could be our first draftee who doesn't make the Majors. GRADE: Foul Tip Caught By the Catcher.
#15 to San Juan - Dave Nathan, 2B:
One of the the top power hitters of this class (his current power of 76
is better than that of #2 Martin), at least the part that my scouts
saw. Definitely 40-50 HR power...maybe more in the right park...but his
other hitting ratings are lacking. In San Juan he'll no doubt have
some huge seasons, but he might have a few of those .225/31 HR seasons
that make you wish you'd have taken that good RP in his spot. I don't
think his glove will be good enough for 2B, and I don't think the arm
strength will be enough for the outfield. But if he's a .260 hitter
with 45 HR's and a plus defender at 1B, that's not bad at all for #15.
DUR is also a concern. GRADE: Home run...he's better than at least the 3 taken right before him.
#16 to Baltimore - Brian Tannehill, SP: jake72 says "My draft pick Tannehill is a LH SP with good/great pitches but middling splits and control. Projects as a #4 or #5," while top says he's a #3 starter. I don't see it. From his currents it looks like his splits will top out in the 50's, P1 will be in the 70's, P2 maybe reaches 70, and P3 and P4 become real stinkers. This draft is running out of talent fast. GRADE: Lazy Can O' Corn To RF.
#17 to OK City - Billy Keller, SS: Almost can't count the ways I screwed this up. First, I originally had Solly Burch #4 on my board. With all the sorting and moving I did I somehow moved him down to about #11 and forgot to move him back to 4 (I didn't think I'd get him at 17 but it turns out I would have). I had really hoped to get Huff or Lira at 17 but Burch would've been good too. Then I moved up a handful of defensive guys (Keller, Wyatt, Bergman and Treadway, hoping to get 2 of them at 52 and 62. But when I moved them up I forgot to write down what their original positions were and put Keller ahead of the other 2 SS's and Treadway (the 3 SS's all had similar overalls in my projections). I should have ranked them something like Wyatt, Bergman, Treadway and Keller (another thing I overlooked was Keller's putrid 26 makeup). If I had paid attention to some basic details I would've had Burch at 17 and Treadway at 52 at worst (much better than Keller and Treadway), and at best would've added Keller at 62. GRADE: Embarrassing, Flailing Whiff...Strike 3 On A Slider In the Dirt.
#18 to Milwaukee - Pat Glaus, 2B: (no projections, only basing the report on currents) the hope here is that his range and glove improve to maybe 80/79...if so he could have a 4-year ML career as a defensive replacement 2B/backup CF. He's not going to hit for much power, but if he gets max development in the other hitting ratings he might hit enough to stick with somebody through his first 2 arb seasons. The outlook would improve if he was a savvy base-runner but that's not the case. GRADE: Nothing special but not a bad player to pick up this late in Round 1. Solid Single.
#19 to New Orleans - Socks Jenkins, SP: Just maybe the dark horse pick of the first round. I only have currents, but his are better than those of the more-hyped Burch (by a lot in most cases) in control, both splits and pitches 2-5. Eventual CON/vL/vR of 84/70/72 and P1-P5 of 80/70/55/55/30 seems at least plausible...all depends on the "true" projections if there are such things. He tends to miss high so that's going to produce some taters but will also have pretty good K totals. This is a nice find for this spot in the draft. GRADE: Tape-Measure HR.
#20 to Richmond - Yank Ramsey, 2B: Another potential sleeper with 35-40 HR power, a pretty keen batting eye, and just good enough contact. At this point it looks like righties are always going to give him trouble, but I've seen worse hitters than him make it as vL platooners. It helps that he'll be an above-average defender at either LF or 1B. GRADE: Standup Double.
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