SEASON 43 AL South PREVIEW

Richmond High Rollers
bjc30

SEA 42:  90-72, Wild Card, advanced to WS and lost to San Francisco

Bjc30 got them to the promised land last year, but fell in the Series.  That's not bad, but what is better, is that the team seems poised to extend the current run of wining seasons into the foreseeable future, so there should be other chances.  The payroll is still low and the minor league pipeline is still full.

Last year they were generally among the top 5 in the AL in pitching but mid-pack in hitting.  Look for the hitting too improve.  Destin Williamson and Chick Rosenthal are probably the best set of corner OFs in the game.  Miguel Fuentes is a solid bat at 1B, as is Willie Germen at DH.  All the guys playing up the middle are defense first type of players, although Turner Fletcher at 2B is an excellent table setter against right handers.

One weak spot in the lineup is 3B, where Jim Cook is playing out of position and does not have enough bat.  Luckily there are 3 AAA third basemen who would be decent stopgaps, and bjc has an excellent trading chip to offer up in young DH B.J. Kirby.


The pitching was the strength of the team in general last year, and the rotation is anchored by rookie Shigetoshi Bong, Lawrence Morey and Jumbo Morris.  Pedro Flores is the closer and the team added Chad Reid and Cesar Santiago and looks to a bigger role for Yangervis Johnson in setup roles.  A really interesting note on bjc's pitching staff:  he definitely is willing to overlook vsL, and his pitchers prove that if the other numbers are strong enough, it is not terribly important.

Season 43 prediction: a slight uptick to 93-69.

Montgomery Scotts
silentpadna 

SEA 42:  103-59, won Division, advanced to ALCS and lost to Richmond

The cream of an outstanding division.  Montgomery was essentially tied with Boston for best offense, and top 5 in the AL in both pitching and fielding.  The core of the team are in their prime, there is a decent sprinkling of kids, and the only player older than 33 is still a very productive pitcher: Yean Carlos Posada.  

The rotation starts with Julio Cano and Vic Merced.  Silentpadna expects them to regress, but they still look strong from this reporters standpoint.  Montgomery goes with tandem starters in the 3 and 4 slots, highlighted by the outstanding Edgmer Gil (22-1 last year) and 22 year old Nori Zhang, who should improve upon a nice rookie season when he might have been rushed to the majors.  Stalwarts in a strong bullpen are Miguel Cedeno, Zeke Sears, Gregorio Martin and Odrisamer Balboa.

Offensively, they are led by third baseman and former Kansas lead singer Steve Walsh (just for you, padna).  Walsh should rebound from an offseason to be in the MVP chase this year.  You know a guy is good when a .900 OPS season is a down year.  He is supported by a pair of new corner OFs in Edgardo Mercedes and Ivan Cedeno, FA signings who will shorten the teams window to compete, but help them grab the ring this year.  Outstanding young catcher Gerald Lim will probably get the bulk of the DH at bats in deference to the outstanding defense of Dan Yearwood.  Both are outstanding at the plate.  Last year's big surprise, 1B Rip Wheeler will probably still man that position, but look for some serious regression from last years 40 bombs.  2B Arthur Taylor sets the table for allthose big bats.

While Richmond is playing the long game and looks to win 90-100 every year for a while, silentpadna is going all in to win 100+ for the next 2-3 years.  As he put it, "I'm not a patient rebuilder."

Season 43 prediction:  down a game just due to random fluctuations and playing in the strongest division in the world.  102-60, but they make the Series this year.

Florida Poison Dart Frogs
groth911 
SEA 42:  99-63, Wild Card, advanced to Division Round and lost to Montgomery

You always have to feel for a team that wins 99 games and finishes second in their division.  The AL South is just tough.  The Frogs won in a fun manner; great pitching, decent hitting, great base running and great defense.  Oh, and also with surprisingly few big stars.

So what about this year?  Groth lost a ton of players to FA this season, but it looks like he is doing more of a retool than a rebuild, as he traded a prospect for 2B Victor Brady and signed a couple of FAs to help offset his losses.

To open the season he has a 4 man rotation.  Cesar Benavente, Al Montgomery and Lastings Wood are all quality pitchers, but Jerome Porter looks like he should be a mopup pitcher at best....preferably in AAA.  I'm guessing that season 39's OA #30 pitcher Matt Owen gets an early call up from AA.  Assuming he replaces Porter, this is still a good rotation.

Chaz Ross is still their closer, but this year newly acquired Marcell Calixte replaces aging Marcos Presley as the main setup man.  Erick Duncan, Emil Ontiveros and Jeff Arrieta are other quality arms in the pen.  The FA loss of Ernest Carey will be hard to replace.

They lost a big bat in Edgardo Mercedes to division rival Montgomery which hurts, but second year man Alexander Pickett looks poised to break out as his replacement.  (Maybe not so much on defense though.)  Base thief, leadoff hitter and all around ratings oddity Ezdra Rodriguez will still be a big part of the team, and newcomer Chuck Sanburn looks to regain his power/speed combo reputation to round out the OF.  Another FA, Richard Hara takes over at C and should provide a little offense.  Youngster Jeurys Vargas has taken over at third and provides some nice power, but looks like an error machine.

Season 43 prediction:  a dropoff in talent plus a tough division and too many key players over 30 spells regression.  Looks like 86-76 to me.

New Orleans Voodoo
bigmattr  

SEA 42:  62-100

Last season, New Orleans had the worst offense in the AL by both OPS and runs scored.  The only things they did well were draw walks and avoid strikeouts.  Pitching was a bit better, but still in the bottom half in every meaningful category.  (Oddly enough, they did have an amazing 28 complete games.)  Fielding was generally above average.  So how do they go about improving that showing under the new MWR?

The first thing I would do is maximize my best asset.  Even if it costs complete games Super Ace Chris Osborne should get more than 29 starts.  Osborne, along with Stan Story, Harry Batista, Rene Jenkins and Chad Haynes make a pretty good rotation.  Unfortunately, their goodness is wasted the minute the bullpen has to come in.  They are the equivalent of Ray Bradbury's 'firefighters' in Fahrenheit 451.  I tried to hold one up as the best of the bunch and couldn't do it.

The hitting is a mixed bag, but the bright spots are harder to find than the dim.  CF Touki Epstein  is one bright spot.  He perfectly illustrates matt's emphasis on batting eye and OBP, with a 98 eye rating.  Dwight Hee, Mark Henry and bargain FA acquisition Ervin Payton can be mixed and matched around him to make a representable OF.  Payton has tremendous power.

Eugenio Martin should be a very good hitter as a DH and occasional C, but he is overmatched by RH pitchers.  Bengie Maduro is the overall best bet at catcher.  Bottom line is they should struggle to even match last year's low output.

Well, this is rebuilding team, so it makes sense that they are looking more to the future, so what do they have in the way of major league ready callups?  Sadly, in AAA the answer is bupkus.  AA, however, is another story.  The future of the franchise begins there.  Led by  Quinn Lewis and Engel Bastardo, there are some guys who will be good players, and some of them could probably justify a callup this year.


Season 43 prediction: Just not enough here.  New Orleans will struggle with the MWR.  59-103.

SEASON 43 AL East PREVIEW

Boston Beer Bellies
torrone 
SEA 42:  91-71, won Division, lost in first round to Richmond

Another solid for the Bellies but a disappointing playoff showing.  What's changed?

They had to replace Jaret Paquette's 200 innings (although he wasn't very effective the last w seasons) and went expensive with Niko Ryan and cheap with Mickey Scott - Ryan's the better pitcher but not by all that much.  

Boston also signed old pro Matt Redmond (I think to his 10th team since leaving KC) to play a little CF and a little defense everywhere.  torrone tells me this is the season Yoslan Goya moves to RF, so Darin Gil gets the first crack at the CF job.

Defensive reshuffling notwithstanding, the lineup will put up around 900 runs.  I don't think it's the best offense in the AL - the ballpark helps, and their road OPS suggest they're around the 5th or 6th best offense - but it's pretty effective thanks to good contact and 500+ walks.

The team ERA actually improved a little last year, although it was still 14th in the AL (4.82). Ryan, especially, is an attempt to address that.  He was great in Vegas last year, but had tough seasons in a great pitchers' park in Tacoma, so he's a bit of a crap shoot.  He should still be a big improvement on Paqette, though.  Cheng, Gabriel and Scott round out the rotation - they're competent starters but in Fenway are likely to post 5+ ERA's.  

I have to say Boston seems pretty predictable - they'll score plenty of runs and win 90 or close to it.

Predicted Record:  88-74

Pittsburgh Dream Eaters
hystericslap 
SEA 42:  80-82

Disappointing step back for Pittsburgh, who looked like the genius of the league in Season 41.
How will they try to get back on track?

The first wave of offseason moves was the departure of a bunch of 30-somethings in free agency, putting pretty much a total roster rebuild on the table.

The next move was more of a nod to the future, trading Wily Osoria for a pretty fair catcher prospect in Wellington Rojas.

Free agency brought a handful of lower-$ free agent signings (suggesting more of a rebuild season), with P Courtney Hermanson and slugger Nicholas Wilkins the biggest names.

And they capped off the offseason by promoting a couple of filler pitchers - Kenny Hammonds and Larry Trujillo.  Trujillo was #29 in his draft and Hammonds #44, so expectations aren't overly high.

Combined with their moderate payroll ($51MM), and the youth of their best prospects, Pittsburgh's offseason strongly suggests a rebuilding season.   

Predicted Record:  73-89

Durham Bulls
aaamizzou
SEA 42: 60-102

Durham's coming off an all-out rebuild year...where are they headed?

Durham ushered out Jerry Northcraft, Zoltan Keppinger (who looks like he's done at 458 HR's) and others, so their payroll is down to a manageable $50MM for the Major Leaguers.

They replenished with a big crop of rookies, the best of whom is 2B Glendon Sheffield, who was originally drafted by Jacksonville #8 in Season 38 and 2 trades later he's starting for Durham.  He's an adequate defensive 2B whose best weapon is a keen batting eye.  Top end - an All-Star game or 2.

This looks like another rebuilding season, although Yasiel Cayones' offensive pyrotechnics shouldn't miss a beat in the moe from one hitter's park to another.  I'd suggest a trade but I think they need him to hit the mwr (note, Durham's mwr this year is 60).  Let's make that a prediction:  if Durham find itself 7 or 8 games ahead of mwr pace at any point before the trade deadline, Cayones gets a new home.

Predicted Record:  62-100

Toledo Walleye
pak4427
SEA 42:  82-80

Nice...a 14-win improvement and 26 better than Season 40.

Their step forward has been propelled by young lineup talent - C Bernie Guzman and  3B Alex Reid - with assists from veteran 1B Yoervis Barrios (.287/32/105) and some unexpectedly good pitching performances (Menses, Benitez and the departed Corey Booker).

They'll get another rookie boost when they promote Season 41's #1 overall pick, Donald Ritz (I'm assuming they'll bring him up even though he's only had 2 MiL seasons because he's 21 and can contribute at the ML level already,  and his PAT/TEM combo suggests he'll never go free agent.  Get another ML into his career.  Plus, I think he'll develop better in his 3rd year with better ML coaching).

So these guys could well top 800 runs this year, moving them into the top 4 or 5 AL offenses.  Unfortunately, their pitching won't keep up, even though it performed admirably last year (about league average).  Their top pitchers are just not at the level of their top hitters.  Everybody see what KC did with the Castillo trade this offseason?  Got him for the 14th pick of a godawful draft (OK, the other guy Gillheeney is worth something, too).  Could Toledo move the 7th pick of that same terrible draft (2B/OF Napoleon Rodgers) to a motivated seller for a top SP?  

Predicted Record:  85-77

Seaon 43 Trade Thoughts Volume 1

The Kansas City Jayhawks trade Nathan Butler to the Columbus Buckeyes for David Quintanilla





Not a huge deal, but pretty one sided.  Butler is a below average starting 1B or a nice bench piece.  Making a little over a million he is taking up a non-minimum salary, but still reasonable relative to his expected production.  The Jayhawks get a guy might someday become a AAAA player, but is probably not ever a ML player.  Advantage Buckeyes



The San Francisco Fog trade P.T. Franco to the Montgomery Scotts for Stephen Waldron



This trade is a clinic for those of you who may be new to the game.  Its as even as you can get and will clearly help both sides.  The Scotts pick up Franco, a young, cheap, excellent backup SS/utility player.    Used correctly he should play 110 or more games.  He’d be underwhelming starting SS, but as a utility guy he’s terrific.  The Fog, in an effort to try to repeat, pick up a somewhat older, 3 million dollar catcher who is a middle-of-the-road starting catcher.  While he’s unlikely to be an all-star, I would expect him to fetch 5-6 mil on the free agency market so getting him for 3 mil makes a lot of sense.



The Florida Poison Dart Frogs trade Mark Post to Baltimore Crabs for Victor Brady and cash



In a vacuum I like this deal more for Baltimore than for Florida, but we don’t live in a vacuum and Florida constructs its team with certain goals in mind and this deal fits them so win-win.  Mark Post is a terrific young relief pitcher.  No amazing ratings except, but solid overall.  A future setup A who is two years away.  Victor Brady is a 32 year old 2B/3B guy. With excellent contact, a good batting eye and 50-60 steals in Florida written all over him.  If played at 2b he is a top half guy. 



The Kansas City Jayhawks send Louis Andrews and Gerald Gillheeney to the Helena Hot Heads for Pascual Castillo



I like this deal for Kansas City. . . I just don’t understand it.  After years of trading for young assets they suddenly make a move for a stud #2 starter who is 30?  To acquire a first rate starter they give up Louis Anderson who projects to a similar kind of guy as Castillo is, but due to a low makeup will probably top out as a solid #3 starter and is 3 years away.  Gerald Gillheeney is a fun asset.  A he’s only 23 and is a good long A who can spot start for you a pinch.  Every team needs one.  In the end I like the price Kansas City paid, I just can’t wait to hear why they paid it.



The Baltimore Crabs trade Phillip Kennedy to the Toronto St. Pats for Benji Lopez



The first dumb. . .er. . .ill advised trade of the year.  Benji Lopez is fine  He should finish as a middle of the road or slightly below 3B, but he’ll have to buy a ticket to ever attend an all-star game.  Phillip Kennedy is 25 and has already been both an all-star and a gold glover.  If collected an MVP in the next 5 seasons I wouldn’t be shocked. 



The Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners trade Scott Allen, Michael Wang, and Weillington Rojas to the Pittsburgh Dream Eaters for Willy Osoria



A no big deal for no big deal trade.  Allen and Wang are AAAA guys.  Rojas is a ML starting catcher, though not a great one.  Fine, nothing special.  Osoria is the best player in the deal by far, but is also 36 and a little overpaid.  The deal works for both sides, but won’t add more than a win or two either way.



The Baltimore Crabs trade Roger Wilson to Colorado House of Horrors for Dave Waters



My guess is that Colorado saw the Phillip Kennedy trade and felt bad for Baltimore because this deal is not terribly balanced.  Walters is a solid #3 starter who can eat tons of innings.



The Honolulu Luau Dawgs trade John Person to the Colorado House of Horrors for Junior Clevinger



A pretty small fry deal.  The Luau Dawgs pick ip a 4^th starter/Long A type for usable backup OF/1B.  The biggest thing accomplished here might be that Colorado cleared 4 million in salary off their books.



The Pawtucket Paladins trade Benji Wagner, Danys Barrios, Al Urbina, and cash to the Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners for Jack Hayes and Alfonso Mangual



This deal was necessitated by the illegal Hayes signing, but how did Jackson/Pawtucket do?  Hayes stays home in Pawtucket meaning they retain perhaps the best 2b (a guaranteed 40 HR guy) I the league on a reasonable deal considering his immense talent.  They also get Manual who is a more than usable backup catcher and could start for some teams.  Wagner is nice piece for a team who is trying to compete now.  He can play SS, but is better at 3B,  He nice pop for a high end defender and a good batting eye and has consistently finished with a OPS in the 700’s.  Barrios is a good ML starting catcher who is both a top end defender and has 30 HR power.  Urbina is a decent bat off the bench who has no real position.  A “C” level prospect. 



The Montreal Shamrocks trade Boone Howard to the Honolulu Luau Dawgs for Benny Lira



Howard is a terrific young player.  The former #5 pick is below average at 3b, but can play the position.  What makes him terrific is that he is only 25 and already has a career 861 OPS guy who seems destined to average 40 hr’s a year.  To get this franchise cornerstone the Dawgs give up one of the best your relief pitchers in the minors.  Just 2 years out of college he already has a ML arm (and is still improving).  He probably tops out at a high end setup A or an average closer.  I like this deal a little a little better for the Dawgs as  I think they are getting a 5-time all star for a 2-time all-star, but the Shamrocks could have done worse and both guys are or will be well above ML players.



The Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners trade Chad Reid to the Richmond High Rollers for Wendell Jorgensen





In general I have really liked what Jackson has been up to and consider them a serious threat to mine/San Fran’s dominance, but this is a little bit of a head scratcher.  Chad Reid is a super solid set up A.  His value is low due to his salary and age, but he high-end pitcher on every roster.  Jorgensen is a usable backup at CF, 2b, and LF but that’s it.  A backup.  If this deal had been made earlier I would have assumed that Jackson was going to turn their 4 million dollar salary into a player they needed.  However, made this late I have my doubts that they will be use the money productively.  I would have rather just kept Reid.



The Columbus Buckeyes trade Bartolo Lee to the Oklahoma City Apocalypse for John Tyson



A make sense deal for both sides.  The Buckeyes are still a fringe title contender and pick up an insurance arm that is ML quality in every way.  The still building Apocalypse pickup a terrific backup SS with only a year of service time.  Both players match what their new team is doing for better than their former team.

Season 43 preview

NL North	W	L	GB		AL North	W	L	GB
Helena	83	79			Milwaukee	89	73
Chicago	76	86	7		Montreal	86	76	3
New York	74	84	9		Kansas City	80	82	9
Toronto	71	91	12		Philadelphia	64	98	25
NL East	W	L	GB		AL East	W	L	GB
Jacksonville	107	55			Boston	83	79
Pawtucket	94	68	13		Durham	82	80	1
Columbus	91	71	16		Toledo	76	86	7
Baltimore	74	88	33		Pittsburgh	67	95	16
NL South	W	L	GB		AL South	W	L	GB
Jackson	92	70			Montgomery	100	62
San Juan	91	71	1		Richmond	84	78	16
Houston	64	98	28		Florida	82	80	18
Oklahoma City	61	101	31		New Orleans	67	95	33
NL West	W	L	GB		AL West	W	L	GB
San Francisco	98	64			Las Vegas	91	71
Honolulu	85	77	13		Colorado	85	77	6
Scottsdale	75	87	23		Oakland	82	80	9
Salt Lake City	54	108	44		Los Angeles	79	83	12

SEASON 43 NL West PREVIEW

San Francisco Fog
pfontaine
SEA 42:   105-57, won Division, won World Series

You could see this coming.  71 wins..twice.  85 wins.  91 wins.  105 wins last year, punctuated by a W12 to end the regular season.

The champs had to replace a 3B and 2 C's this offseason; they  got Giomar Almadova for a front-loaded, 4-year $20MM deal, Yimi Valdespin for 2 years, $7MM, and backup C Stephen Waldron in a trade with Montgomery.  Almadova isn't a guarantee to help the offense but he could - their 3rd-ranked offense did it mostly with OBP last year so another power threat can't hurt.  RF Del Perez is always in the rarified .400-OBP air, and now he has a partner in 1B Francisco Guerrero.

Kirk Marks certainly didn't disappoint in his first full SF season, winning 19 games and the CY.  He's the ace, with a trio of #2's behind him in McLaughlin, Doubront and Pelaez.  The late inning headliners are Jeimer Pena and closer Yordano Valdes, but Helling was very good last year and will continue to get critical innings.

There are no age issues here.  The pitching has been A+ 2 years straight.  The lineup is deep and gets on base.  Short of 2 major injuries I can't see anything derailing this train.

Predicted Record:  106-56

Honolulu Luau Dogs
rockydawg07

SEA 42:  78-84

The Luau Dogs have been up and down since their breakout (106 wins) Season 38, but have largely remade the team over the last 2 years.

They've gotten decidedly younger, with 5 rookies (or almost-rookies) on the opening day roster.  Of those, I think Nathan Lindblom (SEA 40 #21) will have the most impact.  Probably not a ROY threat, but he will potentially give the Dogs a 3rd 40-HR bat in the lineup (with 1B Brad Terry and 3B Boone Howard).  Better offense?  Maybe a touch...735 runs or so.  Would be about league average.  

The pitching staff has generally been good the last 5 years despite being on the anonymous side.  Honolulu spent liberally to bring in career 4.00 ERA Tracy Stearns, who went as low as 3.12 and as high as 4.85 in his 3 full seasons in Richmond.  Behind him in the rotation come Darwin Thornburgh, Eduardo Johnson, Junior Clevinger and Dingo Brock.  Tucker Hood probably becomes the #1 or #2 starter shortly.  Diego Romo and Corban Miles will handle the bulk of the important late-inning work.  I dunno...lotta changes here and I think pitching-wise, they've backed up a little.

Predicted Record:  72-90.  Maybe the offense is better, but I see pitching problems ahead.

Scottsdale Cardinals
finnski

SEA 42:  73-89

The Cards are coming off a couple of low-70's win totals and are trying to improve to relevance in the West.  Let's doa quick lineup and rotation review:

Leading off, we have RF Darin Sherman, whose splits and good batting eye make him the right choice.  His contact skills have limited his career OBP to .328.  C Lee Henson bats second - decent ratings except for batting eye and especially dangerous versus lefties.  LF Trever Fick is #3:  I think that left split kills his stats...1 decent season and 1 bad season since getting a fulltime gig.  At cleanup, 2B Howie Lee.  Not your prototype patient cleanup hitter, but adequate power to do the job.  At #5, longtime fan fav Armando Encarnacion, he of 444 career homers.  At age 35 and in his contract year, he's hoping to muster up one more 30-HR season.  At 6, 3B Paul Corsi.  He fits the Scottsdale model of having power even at the expense of other ratings.  At 7, CF Vinny Leary - no longer a credible CF or ML hitter.  And at 8, SS Al Park...leans more toward an offensive SS, and he homered in the opener.

Billy Walker is the #1 in Scottsdale's rotation, and is the traditional 225+ IP starter.  His pitch ratings are a bit low to provide consistent high-quality starts.  #2 Paul Tanaka has had better long-term results due to his better pitches, but he looks like about 150 innings max.  David Kivlehan combines great control with a low vL and couple of shaky pitches...his 4.68 career ERA seems about right.  #4 Lawrence Hannity is of course a 5-time All-Star and former CY winner, but at this point he's just holding on for a paycheck.  #5 Artie Gabriel probably belongs in AAA.

Overall, I'm not terribly bullish on the Cards this year.  They'll hit for some power as always, but they don't get on base well, and the rotation from 3-5 is just short on talent.

Predicted Record:  70-92

Salt Lake City Trappers
palet99
SEA 42:  78-84

The Trappers lost a ton of 30-something FA's this offseason from a sub-.500 team, so we wouldn't necessarily expect new owner palet to contend immediately.  They filled the vacancies mostly with bargain free agents (like RP Braulio Johnson for $695K and SP Will Acker for $1.5MM), although they did pony up $4.9MM for reliable SS Humberto Almora.

I expect the offense to be similar to last year's - it will be a bit of challenge to put up runs.  3B Hooks Gose is their only real standout and his .306/44 HR's last year was well above career norms.  Their next-best hitter, Octavio Trevino, was a FA casualty - if they're very lucky new LF Francisco Guzman can match Trevino's output.

The front 3 of the rotation (Jenkins, Knepper and Timmons) are all capable of giving you a 3.50 ERA, and they're all capable of giving you a 4.85.  #4 Acker is a higher range than that, and #5 Rooney, he's cheap.  Felipe Garza and Myles Sweeney are getting a little grey, but still have it for the late innings.

It's a rebuilding year with a conservative payroll for Salt Lake. 

Predicted Record:  69-93

SEASON 43 AL North PREVIEW

Montreal Shamrocks
jmercer77 

SEA 42:  80-82

Quiz:  how can a team drop 14 wins from Season 41 to Season 42 while improving its team ERA from 4.45 to 4.21?  2 just-beyond-the-surface explanations:

#1 - the pitching improvement was illusory - the NL improved from 4.62 to 4.46;

#2 - the 'rocks went from 26-21 in 1-run games in SEA 41 to a mind-bogglingly unlucky 14-34 last year.

So much for crazy stats.  This is a good team and they'll recover.  Heath Dickerson and Brooks Bell are top sluggers in their primes who rack up awards every season.  They'll lose a little offense with the Boone Howard trade but Colby McDowell will get a few of those runs back on defense (and the trade will help the pitching down the road - Benny Lira is a quality arm with the potential to throw 120 innings).  The offense should be able to plate 800 runs.

My concern is pitching.  The Mark Pettite - lead rotation looks good, but they lost a couple of quality relievers in FA and (even if he stretches out to 150 IP), Sam Teagarden can't handle the late innings by himself.  

Transaction Prediction:  they acquire a RP at the deadline (if they're contending, which they will be).

Predicted Record:  88-74 (and a lot better than 14-34 in 1-runners).

Milwaukee Chedda
Zattack 

SEA 42: 81-81, won Division, lost to Florida in Round 1

Milwaukee is also coming off a down year (amazingly their 1-run record of 18-31 was nearly as unlucky as Montreal's) but it was still enough to take the Division.

Their only significant off-season loss was verteran OF Rick Black - end of the line for a great one who was in the running for 2 or 3 MVP's.  The Chedda has reloaded almost exclusively from its (and others') farm systems, bringing up vL catcher Howard Perdomo (.829 OPS in a 26-game cup of coffee last season), 1B Pat Neal (a Rule V who was the #12 pick in SEA 38), DH Bartolo Martin, and SP Renato Molina, a SEA 38 IFA.  I doubt there are any ROY winners here, but they're solid contributors.

As with most teams, there are pitching bright spots and more pitching questions.  You have to love the top of the rotation guy, Pat Jodie (I think his 99 vR is the only one I've ever seen), and the Torrez/Andrus late inning pair should be good (but hasn't yet).  Everything in between looks a bit suspect...the kind of staff that can win 83 one year, 92 the year after, and 81 the season after that (actual history).

Predicted Record: tough team to predict...I think they'll probably be better as the 1-run record reverts to the average...85-77.

Kansas City Jayhawks
dakar

SEA 42:  79-83

Is this the year?  Their trade for SP Pascual Castillo signals the return to contention after a long rebuild.  It's still a conservative ML payroll of $43MM with a bunch of min-salary youngsters and a few older, budget FA guys, but this team will be in the mix from now on.

ROY rightfielder Harry Estrada and on-base savant Bo Guerrier (C) lead the offense, which is going to be better than last year's 768 runs (11th) when they call up 3B Yem Higashioka ($31.5MM IFA in SEA 39).  

The best parts of the pitching staff are Castillo and the 2 2nd-year short relievers, Edgard Mendoza and Happy Cepeda (either of whom could step in as the closer on most teams right now).  SEA 39's 14th pick, Matt Brown, is probably a better option than most of the other rotation candidates and I'm betting we'll see him promoted in 20 games.

So they'll contend this year.  The bad news for the rest of us is that there's plenty of more talent still brewing on the farm, especially SEA 40 mega-IFA Joaquin Merced.  His ratings after 2 seasons are quite similar to Estrada's now, and Estrada's coming off a .325/41/112 (in 134 games).

Predicted Record:  90-72

 
Philadelphia Erffdoggs
wholck 

SEA 42:  75-87

My memory could be sketchy, but I seem to recall Philly getting off to a hot start last year and then fading badly.  They might have decided to take one more step back before commiting all their prospects (and they're good) to the majors.  I'm looking at a couple of the bargain-bin FA signings and promotions of AA players...I think we're seeing a little retreat from the 'doggs this year.

When they go for it, they'll be formidable.  We've seen a year of Tomas Alcantera - we predicted he'd be good and he was 12-8, 3.13 - good.  There are a pair of nice hitters in AAA - 1B Britt Hughes (S39 #10) and OF Destin Shea (S40 #5) - not sure if we'll see them in the majors this year or not.  Hughes is about as good as he's going to get but Philly still has Harvey Tracy under contract for this year.  And a couple of seasons away there's OF Tony Martin (S41 #2).

So it won't be long before this lineup is really rocking.  They'll have to find some good bargains among FA pitchers to compliment the run-scoring, but they certainly did that last year. 

Overall, it's a pretty optimistic outlook for next year and beyond, just not so much for this year.

Predicted Record:  70-92

SEASON 43 NL South PREVIEW

Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners
jgsolari3
SEA 42:  99-63, won Division, advanced to Round 2 San Francisco

Why not kick off previews with this season's most controversial squad?  

For those of you living under a rock, Jackson was the perpetrator of "Hayes-Gate" - our once-every-4-seasons-or-so salary cap breakage and work-around to avoid the subsequent penalty.  The resulting trade of Hayes for vet defensive IF Benji Wagner, defensive C Danys Barios, and middling DH prospect Al Urbina actually wasn't bad for Jackson - they needed some defensive help and found some in Wagner and Barios.

The only other lineup addition was OF Jecksson Bailey, who still has an A+ batting eye when he can stay on the field.  1B Pep Walsh should be in line again to knock in 140 runs with table-setters like Bailey, Dennis Boswell and Carlos Polonia ahead of him (although I seriously doubt the now-65-range Polonia can get away with it in CF again).  The Shiners plated 799 last season (4th) and should be right there again.  

Paul Kinney (16-10, 3.00) and Geraldo Manto (18-4, 2.39) continue as one of the top SP duos in Hobbs.  As long as they're healthy Jackson starts every season with a good chance to make (and win) the WS.  Dummy Simpson lived up to his name by declining a $3.1MM option and then signing as a FA for $1.3MM, but he's a credible mid-rotation option along with Johny Gardner, Alfredo Powell and the newly-acquired Wily Osoria.

Hayes would've been a big boost for this team, but they're at least as good as last year's model, maybe a touch better.  One caveat - defense, especially at SS, is still suspect.

Predicted Record:  100-62

San Juan Padres
bobbyj7

SEA 42:  82-80

San Juan's identity is hit first, field second, and occasionally pitch.  It's a popular formula but could use a little tweaking.

C Omir Stowers (.349/32/74) leads the hit parade...he seems a bit under-appreciated to be Hobbs' all-time #4 in batting average.  He's well complimented by 3B Louie Almonte (.274/36/107), CF Einar Nunez (.282/33/94) and LF Marvin Norton (.305/26/95).  As the season opens they appear to be a little light on COF's and may be planning to promote Roy Maier (SEA 39 # 38 overall) in 20 games. 

It's a solid lineup that should be able to equal last year's 816 runs (#4 in NL) and 241 HR's (#3).  They continued a recent history of juggling SS's last season, but eventually handed 3B over to Almonte and went with the better defensive options of Jeremie Kent and Omar Elcano at SS.  Although neither was great, overall the team was pretty good defensively - they lead the NL in fielding % at .988 and had 70 + plays (but also 37 - plays).

Pithing's another story.  SP's Ezequiel Escobar and Phil Newfield are solid and closer Ozzie Martin is lights-out, but after that it's downhill fast.  New signees Derrin Duncan (age 39) and Nolan Rodgers (age 37) aren't going to turn things markedly better.

All-in-all, another season of 11-9 sores at Padres games with the home team prevailing about half the time.

Predicted Record:  80-82

Houston Colt .45s
pimpbotlove

SEA 42:   61-101

The 2 rebuilding teams in this division really put an exclamation point on how awful last year's draft was.  At #2, the .45s landed Gene Del Valle, whose glove might make it to marginal CF/2B territory, and whose bat won't be good enough at any other positions.  Last year's goose-egg draft aside, Houston's rebuild is in pretty good shape.  They've accumulated some decent prospects (like SEA 40 #14 Fred Buckel, P's Diego Alomar,  Dallas Mann and Jocko Reimold, and OF Asdrubal Diaz).  Not stars, but solid workaday ML'ers that form the majority of even WS-winning rosters.  They need to find 1 or 2 young stars of the future, and their #4 pick this year and $22MM payroll have them set up to do exactly that.  More rebuilding this year, but it's going the right way.

Predicted Record: 65-97

Oklahoma City Apocalypse 
blanch13

SEA 42:  66-96

Unlike Houston, after 2 years of rebuilding OKC is nowhere.  With the #1 pick in last year's draft and a buttload of IFA money they came away with a SP who will end up as a #3 or #4.  They'll double down on IFA's this year and hope to get lucky with #6, but the end of the rebuild os nowhere in site yet.

Predicted Record: 65-97