Sunday, June 7, 2020

W-L and Playoff Predictions

OK, here are my W-L predictions for each team and order-of-finish predictions for each division:

AL North Wins
Kansas City Jayhawks 96
Philadelphia Erffdoggs 91
Milwaukee Chedda 89
Montreal Mashers 80


AL East
Toledo Walleye 91
Boston Beer Bellies 89
Trenton Traders 76
Buffalo Ruffalos 58


AL South
Florida Poison Dart Frogs 84
Montgomery Scotts 79
Richmond High Rollers 76
New Orleans Voodoo 63


AL West
Las Vegas Mongeese 88
Los Angeles Motley Crue 83
Oakland A's 74
Colorado House of Horrors 60




NL North
Toronto St. Pats 89
New York Skyscrapers 88
Vancouver Chin Music 83
Ottawa Mounties 60


NL East
Columbus Buckeyes 89
Jacksonville Fake ID’s 87
Cleveland Vikings 62
St. Louis A-Bombs 57


NL South
Austin Apocalypse 93
Houston Colt .45s 92
Jackson MS Moonshiners 89
San Juan Padres 80


NL West
San Francisco Fog 99
Scottsdale Cardinals 89
Honolulu Luau Dawgs 80
Salt Lake City Trappers   78
A word on the projections before we take on the playoffs.  As top has always done, and I've never done before, I made the wins add up to 2592.  When I did my initial estimates, the AL totals were well below 1296 and the NL totals were well above 1296 (even accounting for each team's 4 interleague series).  I had developed an NL bias.

When I squashed down the NL totals it didn't look right.  I think San Fran will win more than 99.  I think Austin will beat 93.  I had to squash down the wins of other teams that look like big improvers to me - teams like Houston and Vancouver.  But the above is what I get when I apply the rule of 2592.  So I'll probably be wrong a lot again, but this time I was more analytical about it.

Playoff Seedings:

AL
1.  Kansas City
2.  Toledo
3.  Las Vegas
4.  Florida
5.  Philadelphia
6.  Boston or Milwaukee

NL
1.  San Francisco
2.  Austin
3.  Toronto
4.  Columbus
5.  Houston
6.  Scottsdale or Jackson

New York and Jacksonville "look" like playoff teams to me...but so do Houston, Jackson and Scottsdale.  Maybe the NL will actually bunch up like this - we'll see.

World Series
I like Kansas City to come out of the AL - I think they're a notch above everybody else.  And while I think San Fran is the best team in the NL, a bunch of teams are close - an upset is more possible here.  I'm going to say Austin makes it through the NL side of the bracket, but Kansas City take the long-awaited championship.

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