SEA 46: 78-84
Big Offseason Moves
Traded for RF Glendon Sheffield, RP Deven Wakeland, and 3B Octavio Javier. Signed FA 2B/CF Benito Feliz. Promoted C Sammy Rivero (17 games in S46), and SP Ken Stevens (3 games S46).
The Good News
Promoting Stevens (Sea 43's #7 overall) is huge because it gives them a pitcher who's head and shoulders above all their others (except maybe Benny Lira). If Felix Cave is an .807-OPS hitter (career number after 3 seasons...seems about right), he's probably going to be a lot better this year than last year (.723). Heath Dickerson is clearly on the decline power-wise, but probably has 2 good seasons left. He could improve a lot over last year as well.
The Bad News
Beat my preseason wins projection by 16 games, which is good. But it's bad news because they had to go 24-10 in 1-runs games to do it. Their expected wins based on runs scored and allowed was 68. Still a good improvement over Season 45, but the 1-runs result is unlikely to repeat.
Pitching. Well, the fact that John Kang's 4.07 ERA was the best on the team last year says it all. And this was a group that performed largely to their career averages, so it wasn't an unlucky year. They're going to need a big season from Stevens and a big improvement from someone like Lira to move the dial on their wins.
Pitching. Well, the fact that John Kang's 4.07 ERA was the best on the team last year says it all. And this was a group that performed largely to their career averages, so it wasn't an unlucky year. They're going to need a big season from Stevens and a big improvement from someone like Lira to move the dial on their wins.
What To Expect
Good luck notwithstanding, they still had a nice improvement last year, and made enough savy moves to keep moving up in wins. They're not challenging KC and Philly yet, but they're going the right direction.
SEA 46: 74-88
Big Offseason Moves
Scored big in FA in the sense that they retained Pablo Guerrero. In a thin FA year, though, he made 'em pay to the tune of 5 years, $91MM. Certainly the intent is to return to playoff contention after a couple of years of retrenching. Can they do it with that much payroll going to one hitter? The only other big move was a FA deal for Justin Dunham, who's been a pretty good under-the-radar (until now) performer for Montgomery and Austin the last few seasons.
The Good News
Plus-Plus hitters at 2B and CF (Guerrero and Chico Astacio) - there's a huge advantage over most teams. Tanyon Joyner's still hitting and still playing 162 games.
Stan Story keeps rocking along. Not a Hall of Famer by any stretch, but a 3.71 career ERA is pretty spiffy.
SS P.T. Ordaz came up last year and should be a GG contender for the next 8 years or so.
Stan Story keeps rocking along. Not a Hall of Famer by any stretch, but a 3.71 career ERA is pretty spiffy.
SS P.T. Ordaz came up last year and should be a GG contender for the next 8 years or so.
The Bad News
The good news on this team is about individuals. The bad news is with the collective. They scored 756 runs last year with their 3 best hitters having "up" or average years. And all 3 are of the age that power declines are setting in.
The 4.50 ERA last year was a pretty big dropoff...I guess there could be a collective comeback. They have some pitchers posting decent seasons every year, but other than Story it's mostly relievers. Hartman and Merced last year, Olmstead anda Andrus the year before. Time to try some version of the relief-centric plan?
The good news on this team is about individuals. The bad news is with the collective. They scored 756 runs last year with their 3 best hitters having "up" or average years. And all 3 are of the age that power declines are setting in.
The 4.50 ERA last year was a pretty big dropoff...I guess there could be a collective comeback. They have some pitchers posting decent seasons every year, but other than Story it's mostly relievers. Hartman and Merced last year, Olmstead anda Andrus the year before. Time to try some version of the relief-centric plan?
What To Expect
No real basis for saying this, but I think they'll have a pretty good surge up this year. This is clearly an aging team and it seems to me that aging players in decline frequently have "surprise" big seasons.
They don't have enough to challenge KC but they'll give Philly a run and flirt with a Wild Card.
They don't have enough to challenge KC but they'll give Philly a run and flirt with a Wild Card.
dakar
SEA 46: 97-65, Won Division (4 straight), lost World Series to Sn Francisco
Big Offseason Moves
Lost Erik Duncan in FA but more than made up for it by snagging Vic Merced (one the season's top FA signings imo).
Lost Erik Duncan in FA but more than made up for it by snagging Vic Merced (one the season's top FA signings imo).
The Good News
Let's go around the lineup and grade them at every position.
C: Guerrier - A (gets on base, very good D). 1B: Mateo - A (not your traditional slugger but he gets on base and catches it when they throw it to him). 2B: Mack - A (he catches it, he gets on base). 3B: Higashioka - B (he catches it, sometimes he hits it far). SS: Wilhelm - A (he catches it, hits way better than the average SS). DH: Osuna and Goya - A (they get on base). LF: Estrada - B+ (OK, not what his rookie season suggested he'd be, but still good. He catches the ball). CF: Panik - B (not a terrible hitter for a CF; he catches the ball). RF: Merced - A (just hits the shit out of everything).
Oh, and their pitching was good, too. 2nd in ERA at 3.92. The really scary news is that James Haney has been a 3-year disappointment and will probably pop out a 2.90 ERA season. and Happy Cepeda's ERA will be 2.50-3.50, not 5-something.
C: Guerrier - A (gets on base, very good D). 1B: Mateo - A (not your traditional slugger but he gets on base and catches it when they throw it to him). 2B: Mack - A (he catches it, he gets on base). 3B: Higashioka - B (he catches it, sometimes he hits it far). SS: Wilhelm - A (he catches it, hits way better than the average SS). DH: Osuna and Goya - A (they get on base). LF: Estrada - B+ (OK, not what his rookie season suggested he'd be, but still good. He catches the ball). CF: Panik - B (not a terrible hitter for a CF; he catches the ball). RF: Merced - A (just hits the shit out of everything).
Oh, and their pitching was good, too. 2nd in ERA at 3.92. The really scary news is that James Haney has been a 3-year disappointment and will probably pop out a 2.90 ERA season. and Happy Cepeda's ERA will be 2.50-3.50, not 5-something.
The Bad News
There really isn't any. The payroll isn't cheap ($108MM) but looks pretty good considering what they're buying. 1B Mateo is really the only player you'd expect to decline much during the season, and since he isn't a power hitter anyway it probably won't do much. Merced might lose a point here or there but he's still at a very high level.
There really isn't any. The payroll isn't cheap ($108MM) but looks pretty good considering what they're buying. 1B Mateo is really the only player you'd expect to decline much during the season, and since he isn't a power hitter anyway it probably won't do much. Merced might lose a point here or there but he's still at a very high level.
What To Expect
They've been to the LCS 4 straight years now, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them go 4 more straight. Certainly the odds-on favorite to get to the WS now that Montgomery has retrenched.
SEA 46: 94-68, Wild Card, lost to Las Vegas in Round 1
Big Offseason Moves
Everyone's favorite slugging team made, imo, the best FA deal of the offseason: CF Desi Cespedes. Yes, he's a bit old to get a 4-year contract, but he's worth it. His range is 90 now, so he'll still be playing CF when he's 35. And his power will drop, sure, but he gets on base. A+ move.
The Good News
295 jacks for the 'doggs last year. It's their calling card. Even their SS (Al Escobar) hits jacks. Everybody loves power. Even when you lose, when you look down the box score and after HR: you see a long list of your guys, it still feels good.
Their pitching is really good (4.12 ERA - 5th). Not KC's level, but really good. I think it's good enough to win the WS if they can get a little lucky. Here's why I say that: they have a "hidden ace". They have 3 short relievers (Valdes, Duran - man, has he aged well, and Sanchez) who can give you about 230 ace-quality innings. That's the equivalent of an SP ace. One "ace equivalent" (even if it's late in the game) makes a huge difference in the playoffs, especially if a couple of their starters can get hot. I've always like Tomas Alcantara because of his array of pitches. He's now had a couple of worse seasons after 3 better seasons - I think he's due for a better one.
Their pitching is really good (4.12 ERA - 5th). Not KC's level, but really good. I think it's good enough to win the WS if they can get a little lucky. Here's why I say that: they have a "hidden ace". They have 3 short relievers (Valdes, Duran - man, has he aged well, and Sanchez) who can give you about 230 ace-quality innings. That's the equivalent of an SP ace. One "ace equivalent" (even if it's late in the game) makes a huge difference in the playoffs, especially if a couple of their starters can get hot. I've always like Tomas Alcantara because of his array of pitches. He's now had a couple of worse seasons after 3 better seasons - I think he's due for a better one.
The Bad News
Even though they were 2nd in runs (863), they're not scoring enough runs given they're pushing 300 bombs. They just don't get on base enough (.328). Too often, they're hitting solo shots that make a small difference; they need ore 3-run jobs that put the game away.
What To Expect
Yeah, they're the most fun team in the league. 300 HR's or close to it, and these are the real deal, not like those artificial Colorado homers. They'll win 90+ and be the top Wild Card team again.
Yeah, they're the most fun team in the league. 300 HR's or close to it, and these are the real deal, not like those artificial Colorado homers. They'll win 90+ and be the top Wild Card team again.
No comments:
Post a Comment