Thursday, June 4, 2020

Season 47 AL South Preview



SEA 46:  75-87


Big Offseason Moves
Signed RP Luther Dodd and traded SP Jumbo Morris for RF Haywood Brinson (S45's #8 overall.  Promoted SS Damaso Vazquez , RP Tomas Miranda ($18MM IFA in S43 - 18 ML games in S46) and RF Nelson Malone (S43 #25).

The Good News
Miranda will bolster a pitching staff that has question marks after S46's 4.34 ERA and Morris' departure.

Brinson looks ML ready after just 2 pro seasons but will start the year in AAA.  He and Malone are the future COF's as Destin Williamson fades out over the next few seasons.  Add those 2 to Williamson and DH B.J. Kirby and you could get some real fireworks (say, 800 runs?) in Richmond this year.

SS wasn't a huge problem last year but Vazquez gives them a step up.  He'll be an A+ defender there for the next 6-7 years.

DITR Midre Miro was a nice surprise in his second season; they need more of that. 

The Bad News
Morris wasn't good last year, but he was for the 3 prior seasons.  Their 2 best starters now are Shigatoshi Bong and Julio Hernandez, although both beat their career ERA numbers last year and could regress.  Gus Seaton was their second-best reliever last year...as a 31-yo rookie.  I hope he keeps it up, but that might say too much about the state of the bullpen.

What To Expect
They have some nice young talent, especially in the lineup, so I think they'll improve on S46's 769 runs.  They could imprive but I can't see a huge jump into contending status.


SEA 46:  94-68, Won Division (5 straight), advanced to ALCS and lost to Kansas City

Big Offseason Moves
Obviously the earthquakes were the trades of Walsh, Lim  and Osborne  in the big 8-player swap with Austin, and the Gil trade to Salt Lake.  Ryan Norman moves in at 3B immediately, and William McGee takes over CF for at least a season or 2.  Tejera and Martin are ML-ready and could get the call soon, while Guillon will almost certainly stay in AAA for his entire 3rd pro season.

Meanwhile, the Scotts made some smart FA moves.  Dan Burke can still be a solid LF for 2 seasons and they got him for just over $2MM/season.  Enrique Bastardo was a great signing for 2 years, $2.5MM.  And I like the deal for SS Bartolo Lee.  And they got a couple of R5'ers in P Bryce Hogan and 1B Edgar Ozuna.

The Good News
They're not gonna be terrible.  They still have vet SP's Mark Pettite and Wladimir Mercado, along with some other decent arms.  They're not going to score 800 runs, but with Norman, Burke, Magee, and (maybe) Tejera they won't be bottom-of-the-barrel.

The Bad News
Should they somehow win the division (not likely but not completely impossible), their odds of a long playoff run are miniscule.  It's a rebuild team - one wwith some of the guture bricks already in place, but surely a rebuild.

What To Expect
I'm guessing Florida wins the division by default, with the Scotts cruising into second.  


SEA 46:  81-81


Big Offseason Moves
Lost Cesar Benavente in FA but put together a replacement conglomerate of Gareth Damon, Polin Padilla, and Ronald League.

The Good News
With Montgomery sudden;y and shockingly starting a rebuild, Richmond standing pat on some shaky pitching, and New Orleans still rebuilding, it's a wide open division.

They look like they're setting up for a relief-heavy pitching setup with League in the linchpin LR/Sam Stock role.  Given what that had and what was available in FA - relievers with more talent than the starter - it's probably a smart strategy. The staff was quite good last year (3.97 ERA - 4th but only .1 run off the top spot) - they'll need repeat performances from the likes of League and fellow RP's Calixte and Arrieta, plus improvement from some of last year's flameouts (especially Alfredo Osoria).

The lineup features one of Hobbs' most unique players, leadoff man and LF Ezdra Rodriguez.  Despite having splits you'd expect to see in High A, he gets on base (career .380 OBP).  And once there, of course, he runs (747 SB - he'll crack the career top 5 this year).  C Hack Palmer, RF Alexander Pickett, 1B Jeurys Vargas and DH David Andujar are the big lumber run producers.

The Bad News
They pretty much play defense-only at 2B, 3B, SS and CF, although CF Klein has some pop.  They scored 730 last year, and that's the ballpark of where they've been for several years.

What To Expect
They're going to have to pitch and defend really well to win they division, but I think they will take it in a surprising 3-way race.

SEA 46:  71-91

Big Offseason Moves
Traded off vets Pat Jodie, Tony Arias , Touki Epstein and Billy O'Sullivan to reconsolidate with more prospects.  Picked up a bunch of bargain FA's late to handle the mwr.

The Good News
There's a pretty good group of young vets both at ML (1B Engel Bastardo, RF David Seneca, RP Byron Huff, RP Addison Jaime, SP Nori Zhang) and AAA (Brant Douglass, Andres Pizzaro, Bud Benson, Eugene Blake).  That's a lot of 26-and-under talent.  If they brought all those AAA guys up they' probably win the division.

The Bad News
I don't know if there really is any.  It's a young, cheap ($33MM for the whole system) roster with prospects in the pipeline.

What To Expect
No idea.  If they brought up everybody they'd certainly contend, but they could set up for a 6-or-7 player "prospect rush" in another season or 2 if they wait for their lower-minors prospects.

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