Monday, June 1, 2020

Season 47 NL East Preview



Jacksonville Fake ID's
topoftheworl
SEA 46:  98-64, Won Division (5th in 6 seasons), lost in Division Round to Toronto


Big Offseason Moves
Traded for all-or-almost-nothing power bat Richie Wilkins, signed Pedro Nesbitt, and promoted defensive C Angel Frias.
A trio of somewhat notable (for different reasons) FA losses:  Shep Mazzaro (for being one of the better Rule V success stories of recent seasons), Felipe Garza (for ending his career with exactly 2000 IP), and Alejandro Bonilla (for being a garden-variety good RP).

The Good News
The 4th-ranked offense is built around the core of SS Kennedy (.304/26/103), CF Campos (.282/31/104), LF Mlicki (.271/28/87), 2B/3B Lou Crawford (.266/27/100), and RF Omar DeLeon (.255/18/65).

Most of the other position players are on the roster for their defensive prowess and are used to great effect in the late innings (82 good plays).

The strength of the 4th-ranked staff is the bullpen, headed by Bralin Kohn (8 wins, 43 saves, 2.90 ERA in 90 IP), Alex Vargas (6 wins, 2.43 ERA in 81 IP) and Quinn Lewis (8 wins, 4 saves, 2.83 ERA in 146 IP), although Julio Cano (19-11, 3.55 in 228 IP) remains one of Hobbs' top aces.

The Bad News
Carlos Valdivia will miss the bulk of the season with an ACL tear, and will not return to star status (if he returns at all).  Wilkins' career .780 OPS is in the ballpark of Valdivia's .835 mark last year, so I think their offense should still produce quite well.  Other than Valdivia, age is not yet an issue.

What To Expect
Probably not the 106+ wins of the S41-S44 Fake ID's, but easily the 92-98 wins of the last couple years.  


Columbus Buckeyes
rdierkers
SEA 46:  89-73

 Big Offseason Moves
Lots of moves, but nothing super-significant.  Probably the biggest were the trades for CF's Billy Sullivan and Ronny Wingo.

The Good News
Finishing 1st and 2nd in ERA in S44 and S45, the Buckeye staff tumbled to 5th last year.  It's good news because it won't happen again.  J.P. Rapp had his worst ERA as a major-leaguer, and several others had particularly bad seasons. With Sam Stock, Malachi Carver, and Andrew Lane, their bullpen rivals Jacksonville's.

Led by RF Keith Jones (.286/48/112), the Buckeye lineup is really good at just one thing:  hitting homers - 247, 3rd in the NL.

The Bad News
The bad news on the lineup is pretty much everything else.  They don't get on base well (.312 last year - last in NL), and they get caught stealing too much (65 of 150).  But because power is, well, one of the very best things to have, they keep scoring in the 725-770 range.

You can always have pitchers with bad seasons, but I can't see many weaknesses in Columbus' pitching.  Morey and Viciedo are a pretty good duo behind Rapp, and adding 180-200 innings of no-longer-in-Colorado Sam Stock is going to give them a nice bump.

What To Expect
Better pitching than last year.  750 runs.  A dogfight of a race with Jacksonville.  Slight edge to Columbus' pitching, slight edge to J'Ville's lineup.  As tough a race to call as we have.

SEA 46:  51-111

Big Offseason Moves
Welcome to a tough turnaround, and welcome back, cyben.  

The Bombs started the rebuild effort by letting Yoslan Nunez walk, then started adding inexpensive pieces.  R5 brought in 3, including nifty CF Paolo Redondo (courtesy of the Austin GM being asleep at the switch again).  The new free agent acquisitions are vL catcher Frank Ishi, reliever Omar Nicasio, and defensive whiz SS Marv Lemon.  

The Good News

(There's not enough of it.)

Offense wasn't the critical problem last year - they did manage 697 runs.  Dan Tipton looks like the best of the lineup and he's gonna be cheap for a couple more seasons.  Maybe they can squeeze one more good year out of Jack Hayes.

They picked up several good defenders in the offseason - maybe the best thing they could do for their pitching mess.

Hugh Cheney looks like a pretty reliable starter.

They've gotten the payroll in pretty good shape already and it'll take another nosedive next year when Hayes comes off the books.


The Bad News
The pitching staff is obviously a mess...they had a 5.53 ERA last year, the highest for an NL team in recent memory.  Right now they have 13 P's on the ML roster and they might have to go with that.  There are guys on the team that can have much better seasons - Andy Wagner is due for a big comeback.

What To Expect
I dunno, it's a tough turnaround.  They should be able to find their way to 55-60 wins but it might take some active management.


Cleveland Vikings
klown61455
SEA 46:  63-99

Big Offseason Moves
Looks like the end of the line for Andre Counsel.  Not a HOF'er (or even close, really), but a solid, workaday pitcher who rolled up 185 wins and a 3.95 ERA over 17 seasons.  

Bunches of small moves.  They promoted at least 6 rookies, none of whom appear to offer either much impact or total disaster.  I like the trade for Del Wang - still cheap and he'll be one of their better pitchers.

The Good News
klown61455 seems to have a good feel for making the mwr but not by too much.  The payroll's really low ($17MM total) and the pipeline will start producing ML talent over the next couple seasons (Henry Holm, Placido Tejada, Jeurys Suarez, Darren Pressley, Yangervis SantanaGlenn Powell).  That's some serious firepower.

The Bad News
Another rebuilding year, and they do have to jump up and hit 68 for their mwr, but they've been managing it pretty well for the last 3 seasons.  

What To Expect
70 wins?  Their mwr is 68.  Looking at their roster, I need to squint a little more than I'd like to see 70, but they have a good history.

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