SEA 46: 110-52, Won Division (7 straight), Won WS (3rd in 5 years)
Big Offseason Moves
Signed SS Wellington Sierra, C Adam Cintron and SP Brandon Booth. Traded fan fav SS Avisail Silva for RP Cy Diaz. Booth and Diaz replace Diego Romo and Al Benitez, who left in FA.
The Good News
They just do everything well. 1st in runs scored, 2nd in ERA, tops in fielding % and good plays. Interestingly, they are not a huge HR team (183 - 12th in NL). Their top HR guy, C Almadova, hit just 28. They score runs by making sure there are runners on base when big hits happen. Their top 2 OPS hitters - RF Del Perez and 1B Francisco Guerrero, are actually on-base wizards who throw in a dash of power.
Ace Kirk Marks (3-time CY winner) had a little DL stint last year but recovered to post another fine season (16-6, 2.47 ERA). SP's 2 and 3 - Doubrant and Martin, would be #1's on a lot of teams. They both posted 3.35 ERA's last year and worked about 400 innings combined.
3B (Puffer - 23 good plays) and SS (27 good plays combined) are the keys to their defensive dominance. It looks like SS this year will be a Castillo/Sierra platoon or timeshare. Maybe a minor step down but Sierra will bring a pretty good bat as a bonus.
The Bad News
If there's any bad news here, it's that the bullpen is maybe a notch below excellent. They get so many good innings out of their rotation, though, that the pen isn't critical. Jeimer Pena and Al Sucre are probably their to 2 relievers, and both are capable of excellent seasons.
What To Expect
More of the same - top or near top in all the big stat categories, and 8th straight division crown.
SEA 46: 78-84
Big Offseason Moves
Lots of FA signings, but I think the big ones were RP Erick Duncan and Juan Martinez. Martinez has aged remarkably well considering the 7 traumatic seasons in Colorado. I don't know how well those ratings can maintain during his age 40 season, but it would be nice to see him go out on a good note.
The Good News
It's the year after a "down" season. Every year since Season 36 (with one blip of 2 down seasons following the magical 106-win SEA38), this team has been on an "up-down" 2-year cycle. And we're talking mostly double-digit swings in wins: down 12 S42, up 13 s43, down 13 S44, up 9 S45, down 9 S46.
So this should be an "up" year.
They're gonna have to do better than 684 runs (14th), but that seems likely. Brad Terry will get old some season soon, but not yet. Boone Howard suffered through a .757-OPS campaign (almost 100 points below career), and Hooks Gose coughed up a career-worst .694 stinker (130 points below career number). So there's a pair of nearly-guaranteed comebacks. Throw in average seasons from Brooks Bell (.950) and Nathan Lindblom, and 725 runs looks pretty doable.
Not ready to call B.C. Quercuto an "ace" yet, but after 2 seasons and a 2.86 ERA, he's pretty close. Tucker Hood now has 9 straight seasons of ERA's in the 3's, so he's as dependable a #2 as there is. Yamil DeSoto seems to be emerging as a 3rd reliable starter (2 seasons, 28 wins, 3.68 ERA).
So this should be an "up" year.
They're gonna have to do better than 684 runs (14th), but that seems likely. Brad Terry will get old some season soon, but not yet. Boone Howard suffered through a .757-OPS campaign (almost 100 points below career), and Hooks Gose coughed up a career-worst .694 stinker (130 points below career number). So there's a pair of nearly-guaranteed comebacks. Throw in average seasons from Brooks Bell (.950) and Nathan Lindblom, and 725 runs looks pretty doable.
Not ready to call B.C. Quercuto an "ace" yet, but after 2 seasons and a 2.86 ERA, he's pretty close. Tucker Hood now has 9 straight seasons of ERA's in the 3's, so he's as dependable a #2 as there is. Yamil DeSoto seems to be emerging as a 3rd reliable starter (2 seasons, 28 wins, 3.68 ERA).
The Bad News
The problem is the rest of the staff is (like the team) up-and-down. S45 saw a number of good seasons from the back of the rotation and bullpen...0 last year. Tracy Stearns is certainly capable of stringing together a full season (7 of 14 seasons with ERA under 4, and a number of those were 220-230 IP). But the 'pen looks shaky...maybe Duncan is the answer.
What To Expect
Continue the trend - "up" year. Can they catch the Fog? No. Can they Wild Card? It's not 50-50 but they have a shot.
Continue the trend - "up" year. Can they catch the Fog? No. Can they Wild Card? It's not 50-50 but they have a shot.
SEA 45: 78-84
Big Offseason Moves
Let Trever Fick walk in FA, but no matter. The farm system popped out 4 quality promotions this offseason: 1B Darin Cameron (#11 in S45), LF Darryl Hennessey (2nd -rounder, S45), SP James Appel (#9 in S44) and SP Nick Jones (#24 in S44). Cameron gets a shot at being the FT 1B and Appel might be their best P. Hennessey probably needs a platoon partner and Jones could be a S4/S5 or a LR.
The Good News
They improved by a whopping 24 wins last year (to 90), and I didn't see that coming (I predicted 68). Billy Walker had now had 3 good seasons in a row after struggling early in his career. Can we trust that? Maybe his pitches are just good enough. It's plausible that he and Appel could give them 425 innings of 3.50 ERA...that would launch a serious Wild Card run.
The lineup jumped from 595 runs to 711, but it was the result of new guys like Cameron Sears and Michel Berrios stepping up. They might not score 711 again, but they're not sliding to 595 again.
They improved by a whopping 24 wins last year (to 90), and I didn't see that coming (I predicted 68). Billy Walker had now had 3 good seasons in a row after struggling early in his career. Can we trust that? Maybe his pitches are just good enough. It's plausible that he and Appel could give them 425 innings of 3.50 ERA...that would launch a serious Wild Card run.
The lineup jumped from 595 runs to 711, but it was the result of new guys like Cameron Sears and Michel Berrios stepping up. They might not score 711 again, but they're not sliding to 595 again.
The Bad News
They definitely had luck on their side last year. They gave up more runs than they scored, and still won 90. They got some big bullpen years (Peguero, Smith, Lastings Wood in his finale) that are anything but assured of repeating. And 2 of their top 4 hitters from last year are gone (Fick and C Lee Henson, who OPS'd .959 and remains unsigned).
What To Expect
On the one hand, they're coming off a pretty lucky year. On the other they have another good influx of rookie talent. I think they'll keep the momentum and better last year's wins by a little.
On the one hand, they're coming off a pretty lucky year. On the other they have another good influx of rookie talent. I think they'll keep the momentum and better last year's wins by a little.
SEA 46: 55-107
The Trappers give up their first-rounder this year to hang in and start building this thing into a winner. As a result they have the highest mwr of any team this year - 77 - so they need 22-win improvement. Can they do it?
Big Offseason Moves
Lost Paul Tanaka and Louis Stein to FA. Signed SP Mark Wallace, SP Albert Wilson, OF Ervin Payton, and RP Thad Paramore. Grabbed Rule V'ers Neal Thomas (SP) and Gene Sutton (SS). Traded for OF Darrell Ryan, SP Edgmer Gil, and 3B Philip Corsi.
The Good News
First, the pitching. Wallace, Wilson and Gil are all well above any of the SP's the Trappers trotted out last year. Harvey Matz and Elrod Parkers now go to the #4 and #5 SP spots where they can eat up innings and keep some games competitive, but not be counted on to pull out wins single-handedly. With 2 FA deals and 1 trade, they have a viable rotation.
They've added power at 3B, CF and RF without adding much cost. They have some productive holdovers at 2B (Cordova), 1B (Martinez) and LF (Davey), so the attack is going to be much-improved.
They've added power at 3B, CF and RF without adding much cost. They have some productive holdovers at 2B (Cordova), 1B (Martinez) and LF (Davey), so the attack is going to be much-improved.
The Bad News
The bullpen is still questionable, although Gavin Woods is still pitching pretty well. I think one of the keys to their season will be the direction of Gerald Gillheeney. He had 3 pretty solid seasons before last year's meltdown. Given the number of innings he can throw, if he can return to S43-45 form it would sure settle down the late innings.
Juan Carlos Alvarado, ostensibly their best all-round player, remains an enigma 2 years into his career. They need better hitting from him to justify keeping his limited range at SS, which they seem committed to doing this year. I think he's more like a .750 OPS hitter than the .682 he's been so far.
The bullpen is still questionable, although Gavin Woods is still pitching pretty well. I think one of the keys to their season will be the direction of Gerald Gillheeney. He had 3 pretty solid seasons before last year's meltdown. Given the number of innings he can throw, if he can return to S43-45 form it would sure settle down the late innings.
Juan Carlos Alvarado, ostensibly their best all-round player, remains an enigma 2 years into his career. They need better hitting from him to justify keeping his limited range at SS, which they seem committed to doing this year. I think he's more like a .750 OPS hitter than the .682 he's been so far.
What To Expect
More runs, better pitching, bad defense (you can't fix everything in one year). They make the mwr.
More runs, better pitching, bad defense (you can't fix everything in one year). They make the mwr.
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