topoftheworl
SEA 45: 92-70, Wild Card, advanced to Round 2 and lost to San Francisco
Offseason: Juan Trinidad escaped to OAK in free agency, and their only FA foray was $1.1MM for 40-yo Felipe Garza. I'm a bit surprised, figured they'd crank up the spending a bit more to keep the window open. Not that it's closing - Carlos Valdivia will experience some major ratings declines during the course of the season, but the rest of the team is still prime-time. Got the roster up to 25 6 games into the season with the signings of CF Santiago Olmeda, C Alving Salinas, SS Jesus Sardinha, and P Cookie McCartin.
Offense/Defense: J'Ville runs a unique (and very effective) plan for their position players: start the lumber (Avila, Mlicki, Crawford, Kennedy, Valdivia, Campos, DeLeon) at every position except SS, then use backups that are all strong defensive SS/3B types (Bootcheck, Pagnozzi and Tatis). Of course it helps that the starters are generally strong defensively, and the "defensive" backups aren't terrible at the plate. It is worth noting that their runs scored dropped a whopping 220 runs from S44 to S45 with no significant lineup changes (or aging issues). I'm predicting a pretty strong bounce-back.
Pitching: Julio Cano was phenomenal in his first season in J'Ville - 20-7, 2.59 in 222 IP. It's a 4-man rotation with Shane Jenkins at #2 followed by Colome and Mazzaro and Robinzon Fuentes stepping into the swingman role handled by Trinidad last year. Beyond Cano, the "ace" of the staff is pretty much the entire pen. Between Lewis, Bonilla, Vargas and Kohn they got about 440 innings in the 2's and 3's ERA - equivalent of about 2 more ace starters.
Forecast: With the big dropoff runs the ID's dropped 14 wins last year. Other than Valdivia, all their prime hitters had worse seasons that in S44 - just an unlucky confluence of bad seasons. Most, maybe all will have big comebacks.
Prediction: 100-62
rdierkers
SEA 45: 99-63, won Division, advanced to NLCS and lost to San Francisco
Offseason: Traded some middling prospects for 1B Eric Riley, P Matt Booker, and P Ronald Hoover. Willie Matos departed in FA. 6 relatively low-budget FA signings - including re-signing P Bud Watson with the most significant one.
Offense/Defense: The Riley trade typifies the kind of deal good teams make. Didn't give up much of anything, Riley's min salary for this year and a cheap arb for another. He platoons with Atkins this year and next, and if you can't do better in S48 you arb him for 1 more year. By S48 or S49 you find something better and let him go. Well done on a minor trade. That side note done, Keith Jones is the offensive star here. He's a DH playing RF with all that brings (14 errors, 19 - ) and worth every boot to the tune of .322/52/115. Louie Almonte drove in 83 last year and Kory Atkins 78, but after that they look a little thin in the RBI department. They can expect a better year from Destin Harang and I think Trayce Zoltan (acquired last year) will be another solid lineup addition. Middling defense with 112 errors and 75/31 +/-
Pitching: 3-time CY winner J.P. Rapp gives COL an advantage in just about any playoff series. He's almost certainly the best SP in the series and managed correctly, starts 2 games in a 5-gamer and 3 in a 7-gamer. Of course you need help to get to those playoff series and Rapp has plenty (3.50 team ERA - 2nd in AL). Al Viciedo (12-7, 3.07) is a very tough #2 and Lawrence Morey (17-12, 3.38) is just as tough with a more rubbery arm (250 IP). They'll use those 3 as much as possible an fill in with Watson, Booker, Tejeda and Izquierdo. It's a very strong bullpen - perhaps rivaling Jacksonville's in quality if not quantity - featuring Malachi Carver (9 wins, 11 saves, 2.14) in middle relief and Eibner and Lane for shorter stints.
Forecast: They had some luck with 1-run games last year (30-13) so they beat their expected % by 50 points (8 wins). I think the lineup additions give them a little more pop but not that much.
Prediction: 95-67
justinuv
SEA 45: 70-92
Offseason: Signed C Pablo Rodriguez and traded for 2B Marlon Norton. C Scott King, 3B Dan Tipton, CF Al Young, and SP Will Hale all saw just a few games last season, so they've essentially been promoted this year.
Offense/Defense: They need to improve (a lot) on last year's 581 runs (dead last in NL). They still have 2B Jack Hayes (will top 600 career HR's this year) hitting 40 bombs a year and LF Yoslan Nunez is a solid .790 OPS for his career, but they didn't really add any fear-inspiring lineup pieces. The good news is that the newcomers don't have to do much to improve on last season. The defense needs similar improvement (37/44 +/-). Unfortunately, their "better" (14 good plays and no bad plays in SS/CF) combination SS/CF Aaron Gibson got away in FA to New Orleans, leaving Glen Pinder (32 errors and 6 bad plays in half-time SS duty) as the only shortstop and no CF candidates with better than 78 range 77 glove. Yipes.
Pitching: Kinda better news on the mound, as they were close to the NL average ERA last year. But, several of those guys - especially the ones who carried them (Duffy Miller, A.J. Sweeney) took off in FA. That leaves them with rotation of newcomer Hale, career 3.83 (not bad) ERA Andy Wagner, career 4.19 (OK) ERA Eric Kolb, career 3.32 (surprising in a good way) Hugh Cheney, and Pedro Morales (5.52 ERA in 357 innings). The 'pen will be unpredictable, with only Luther Dodd possessing a consistent (good) record. They've rolled the dice and shed a little talent here.
Forecast: Clearly they're rebuilding a cutting payroll - I hope they're not trimming it too close (their mwr is only 55 this year so if they're going to risk it this is the year).
Prediction: 60-102
klown61455
SEA 45: 69-93
Offseason: Lost Dave Waters to Honolulu in FA. Signed a budget half -a-staff for about $5.5MM (Jeanmar Ozuna, Alfredo Powell, Andre Counsell, Jarek Winston, Viosergy Crummack).
Offense/Defense: Just 608 runs last year but they're getting help Jose Benitez ($22MM IFA S41) got a few AB's last year but moves in as the fulltime SS - he's an exciting 2-way player. The defense needs as much help (118 errors). Benitez will have some errors but will improve on last year's SS (Don Graves - 35 errors and better suited to his current position of CF).
Pitching: They were near the bottom of the NL at 4.40 ERA last year, but have replaced about half the staff. I like the budget FA group they signed - it looks like Crummack, Winston and Ozuna will join Reagan Osborne and Mark Wallace in the rotation. If Wallace can come anywhere near last year's heroic 2.93 ERA and 207 IP, the rotation will be OK. With Counsell and Mark Post (semi-promising 3.71 ERA last year) in the 'pen it should be adequate.
Forecast: Another obvious rebuilder with a $19MM ML payroll, they have enough talent to easily clear their mwr (56), and we get to see the first glimmer of their future (Benitez).
Prediction: 72-90
Division Race:
1. Jacksonville
2. Columbus
2. Columbus
3. Cleveland
4. Dover
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