torrone
SEA 45: 70-92
Offseason: Only significant FA loss was SP Dan Gabriel - all the others are headed for retirement. One big FA signing of SP Russell Powell plus they re-signed RP Yorvit Medrano. Active on the trade front: got a pretty fair young SP/LR (B.C. Martinez) and a slick-fielding SS prospect (Stephen Allen) for LF Xander Oliva (I like the Bellies' side of that deal); moved a minor league 2B for DH Robinson Moscoco (not much to this trade but again I prefer the BOS side); and shipped out a pair of pitching prospects (one of whom, Victor Sanchez could see the Majors) for SP Yohan Lugo (career ERA of 4.49 in a neutral ballpark, so nothing much to get excited about). Much younger team than recent editions, and getting younger.
Offense/Defense: Solid lineup that swings a lot (445 walks - 15th in AL), makes contact a lot (.270 - 4th) hits for decent power (217 HR's - 7th) and runs well (177 SB and 70 CS). There's no real star anywhere but a bunch of guys hitting 15-29 HR's and driving in 80 runs. More of the same ready to come u from AAA, although maybe Moscoco can break out with bigger power numbers. Bottom half defensively, with 104 errors and 57/25 +/-. I'm assuming they'll promote Allen in 20 games - looks like they'll move Wilking Guerrero to CF and Darren Gil to LF and improve their defense at 3 positions.
Pitching: OK, we've got last year's rotation (ERA's in the 5's) minus Gabriel, plus Lugo and Howell. Is that an improvement? If you squint real hard you can see one. Medrano's probably the best arm on the staff - he anchors the bullpen of otherwise 4A luminaries.
Forecast: Good lineup and improved defense, but limited by the staff.
Prediction: 75-87
Prediction: 75-87
hystericslap
SEA 45: 61-101
Offseason: Looks like they had 9 FA departures, none of whom mattered much. They reloaded with higher quality replacement but were still clearly seeking bargains. RP A.J. Sweeney was probably the "star" of their FA haul.
Offense/Defense: This is where they really need the work - last year's 587 runs won't cut it. They're going to have to get some surprise seasons from 2-3 guys because it's more or less last year's lineup. DH Bo Stewart actually had his best season last year (.291/34/102). Harry Diaz will improve the 2B production, and 3B Octavio Javier will snap back from his worst year. 1B Josh Long hit 39 HR's in S44 when they scored 791 runs (with a few of the same cast), so there are some reasons for optimism. This is one of the AL's better defenses thanks largely to 3B Javier (2 straight GG's) and SS Marv Lemon (25 good plays).
Pitching: With the offense collapsed, their pitching (3.76 ERA) made the mwr for them. Far and away the most interesting pitcher on this squad is the Jekyll-and-Hyde Vasco Alonso, who was an $18MM IFA in Season 39 by Montgomery and subsequently traded to the Eaters in Season 42. Alonso has excellent splits and sketchy control, plus both good and bad pitches. Fittingly, his ERA's his first 2 seasons have been 2.88 (the S44 good Alonso) and 4.08 (the S45 Mr. Hyde Alonso). They need the good Alonso to show up this year - the rest of the staff is devoid of difference-makers.
Forecast: It's not necessarily logical, but I expect a pretty nice comeback season.
Prediction: 74-88
Prediction: 74-88
aaamizzou
SEA 45: 77-85, Won Division, lost to Philadelphia in Round 1
Offseason: Not a big offseason for the East Champs. Said adios to some retiring vets, resigned Danys De La Vega, who has quietly put together a .900-OPS career. That's about it.
Offense/Defense: Jumped about 40 runs to 792 last year, good for 7th in the AL. Big long-ball team with 252 HR's (Yasiel Cayones 41, Philip Corsi 40), but they'll also take a walk (530 - 6th) and peck away with good contact (.269 BA - 5th). 1B Darrell Lynn kind of typifies Durham's offense: 195 hits and .313 BA, fair share of BB's with 61, 35 jacks, and no stolen bases. Defensively, they were in the middle of the pack with 89 errors but were last in the AL in + plays with 39.
Pitching: With teams like Durham that play their home games in extreme hitters' parks, I try to gauge their pitching by their road numbers - kind of a proxy for how they do in an average ballpark. The Bulls posted a road ERA of 4.76 last year - 12th in the NL. Durham's another team that has been using a version of a relief. It looks like they'll try it again, as their (currently 9-man) staff is heavy on relievers. Ryan Blackley (a former #10 pick) didn't start any games last year but was very good (3.39) in 31 outings and looks like their best pitcher. He could be up for the 50-start role and if he is, their ERA will drop.
Forecast: Added 18 wins last year - not a fluke but the improvements will come harder.
Prediction: 82-80
pak4427
SEA 44: 73-89
Offseason: Pretty quiet off-season for the Walleye. Some FA losses off the low end of the roster and some budget signings, the best of which were likely SS Luther Smith and RP Pete Bonham. Since Bonham doesn't have an injury event on his player card, I'm assuming Toledo signed him while he was injured. I think this will end up being a clever way to get a nice pitcher for a year and a half on a cheap deal.
Offense/Defense: The Walleye dropped off by 135 runs year-to-year even with 3B Alex Reid's big comeback season (.277/40/113). What's up with that? It was a combination of poor performances and attrition: both COF's (Crocker and Ritz) suffered through poor seasons and the 1B committee that sought to replace Yoervis Barrios was incompetent. The good news is Crocker and Ritz (particularly) will bounce back and re-form the young core of this lineup with Reid and C Bernie Guzman. Maybe Napoleon Rogers can step up and fill the 1B void - his .612 OPS last year doesn't suggest it but he could improve. This isn't a 700-run offense by a long sight, but it isn't Season 44's 843 either. The defense was near the bottom of the AL with 101 errors and a 47/31 +/-. New SS's Smith and Raul Machi (don't look now but he's #5 on the career list for good plays at SS) will give those number a nice boost.
Offense/Defense: The Walleye dropped off by 135 runs year-to-year even with 3B Alex Reid's big comeback season (.277/40/113). What's up with that? It was a combination of poor performances and attrition: both COF's (Crocker and Ritz) suffered through poor seasons and the 1B committee that sought to replace Yoervis Barrios was incompetent. The good news is Crocker and Ritz (particularly) will bounce back and re-form the young core of this lineup with Reid and C Bernie Guzman. Maybe Napoleon Rogers can step up and fill the 1B void - his .612 OPS last year doesn't suggest it but he could improve. This isn't a 700-run offense by a long sight, but it isn't Season 44's 843 either. The defense was near the bottom of the AL with 101 errors and a 47/31 +/-. New SS's Smith and Raul Machi (don't look now but he's #5 on the career list for good plays at SS) will give those number a nice boost.
Pitching: Toledo's pitching staff is really future HOF'er Paul Kinney and then everybody else. Andy Cobb can have a big season as evidenced by his 3.29 ERA in Season 43, but that's only 1 good season out of 5. I'm much more optimistic about Santiago Fuentes' breakout possibilities - his control's a little shaky but his splits are pretty good and his pitches excellent. Wilbur Harris is the best of a so-so bullpen.
Forecast: Their 4 young studs in the lineup will be good; their fortunes hang on getting some better pitching from the likes of Fuentes (will happen) and Cobb (won't happen). Add up to 10 more wins.
Prediction: 83-79
Prediction: 83-79
Division Race:
1. Toledo
2. Durham
3. Pittsburgh
4. Boston
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