SEA 45: 80-82
Offense/Defense: Looking over their lineup, I was expecting a top 6 or 7 offense with the likes of Destin Williamson, Miguel Fuentes, B.J. Kirby, and Chick Rosenthal. But the first 3 had poor seasons, and Rosenthal had his second straight clunker after starting his career with ROY and MVP seasons. So scoring was down by 90 runs. Good bet for a bunch of comeback seasons here and back over 800 runs. This is a slick-fielding team with just 74 errors (3rd in AL) last year and an excellent 80/18 +/-. 1B Fuentes, SS Almora, and 3B Thome contributed 49 of the good plays.
Pitching: They've been between #2 and #5 in AL ERA for 4 straight seasons now, so they know how to put together a staff. Jumbo Morris is the big innings guy and #1 SP, followed by Franco, Hernandez, Bong and Skinner. On first glance they don't look that impressive but they have something in common: good pitches. Gregorio Lira was outstanding in middle/long relief last year (5 wins, 12 saves, 3.03 ERA in 124 IP), but was atrocious the year before. Anderson and Miro are just one season into their careers, so who knows. The bullpen is a wildcard, but they also all have nice pitch assortments, so I think they'll be at least OK. Sneaky good stff for not a lot of $$.
Forecast: I like their story for this season - consistently good pitching plus solid D plus a big comeback for the lineup.
Prediction: 90-82
SEA 45: 106-56, won Division, advanced to World Series and lost to San Francisco
Offense/Defense: Top lineup in the AL, led by future HOFers Steve Walsh (.308/35/109) and Gerald Lim (.301/49/140). Germen was a loss for sure, but with Stephen Whiten hitting .393 in 29 games last year, I'd say they have a capable replacement. Trey Norman won't be the hitter Stynes was, but he's even better than Stynes was defensively. The powerful lineup is remarkably proficient in the field as well - just 68 errors and 86/15 +/-. 7 defenders had 5 or more good plays last year.
Pitching: Montgomery uses one of these wacky relievers-start-all-the-games-and-go-40-pitches setups that are so fashionable now. Osborne, Merced and Mercado then become the focus in long relief with 40-50 appearances each (and the bulk of the wins). Who knows, Pettite may work into that tandem rotation somehow but for now he seems to be the main setup man. In any configuration, it's a talented staff that will be at least as good as last year's (#4 in AL ERA).
Forecast: It's hard to see any falloff anywhere. Just a matter of how far they go in the playoffs again.
Prediction: 105-57
SEA 45: 84-78
Offense/Defense: Florida employs the long-popular "shortstops back up everybody" lineup plan, opting for superior late-inning defense over more punch when they have leads. Does this work better than a "normal" setup? I don't really know and don't know how you'd test it, but I have a couple of ideas. Perhaps a test for "late-inning super-effectiveness" is record in one-run games (the assumption being you kick in your all-SS's plan in close, late games). Last year Florida was 25-19 in 1-runners - .568, a fair bit better than their overall .519. The year before they were 17-29 - .370, or slightly worse than their overall .377. Maybe beating your expected winning % is a better marker? Last year's .519 topped expected by 40 points, or 6 and a half. In the "down" year (assuming at least a little unlucky) of S44, they still beat their expected by 4 wins. Hmmm. In any event, the offense is Ezdra Rodriguez gets on base steals 2B, and Alexander Pickett drives him in. There are other minor story arcs in this movie, but those are the basics. As expected with all those SS's they're near the top of the AL in good plays (99 - 2nd), although they commit their share of errors (about AL average).
Pitching: They've been hovering around league average since their big S42 (led the AL with 3.55 ERA). The rotation of Montgomery, Benavente, Bradley, Owen and League will keep you in most games but isn't going to win them outright for you. Calixte has been very good over his long career but gives you limited innings, and Chaz Ross remains a top closer.
Forecast: 1-run wins tend to bounce up and down from season to season, and they were pretty lucky last year. A little coming back to earth this year.
SEA 45: 67-95
Offense/Defense: Getting some interesting young pieces into place. 1B Engel Bastardo OPS'd .783 as a rookie. 2B Raul Berrios will be an on-base wiz. RF David Seneca had a 60-day DL stint but on-based .425. Touki Epstein is now the "old pro" of the lineup at 30, but remains a plus hitter at CF.
Pitching: Same story with the young pitchers. Nori Zhang should be ready to break out after a 60-day DL stint affected 2 seasons. Tony Arias is one of the AL's top young arms. Short relief is in great shape with Byron Huff and Addison Jaime. And they have ace starter Pat Jodie under team control (probably) through the end of his career.
Forecast: The big question is, with this kind of talent, why haven't they decided to just go ahead and win? It doesn't get much better than this.
Prediction: 80-82
Division Race:
1. Montgomery
2. Richmond
3. Florida
4. New Orleans
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