SEA 45: 87-75, won Division, advanced to Division Series and lost to Montgomery
Offseason: Had a couple of pretty good SP holes when Andre Counsel and Jeremy Tollberg opted for FA; answered by signing Duffy Miller, Randy Shoppach (who promptly suffered a season-ending injury), and 3 relievers.
Offense/Defense: The A's hitting stats are a little deceptive - looking only at their 722 runs scored, you'd think their lineup a bit powder-puffy. But how'd they do in an "average" park away from the spacious Oakland-Alameda? .774 OPS, 6th in the AL. CF Peter Stockton, coming off his best campaign (.302/14/68, 24 SB) is the table-setter. DH Tim Jeter (.303/28/97), 3B Darren Harren (.267/24/104), and the weirdly consistent (OPS between .820 and .892 in all 7 of his full-time seasons) Domingo Marmol drive in the runs. Question marks on who mans RF and whether Dallas Sever can cobble together 1 more decent year before he becomes a Low A hitting coach. Pretty good defensively with a .986 fielding percentage; their 62 good plays weren't great but they also avoided bad plays (only 18). 3B Harren is their true defensive standout (18 + plays).
Pitching: It's not a big-name staff but they get the job done. 3 starters (Keller, Tollberg, Padden) posted sub-4 ERA's last year, and Miller's likely to add one to that column. Save Season 44, Freddie Martin has been a very consistent performer and has thrived in the closer role (wouldn't the A's love a repeat of his 46-save, 0.91-WHIP showing of S45?). I think they'll miss Myles Sweeney as the 2nd setup man behind Offerman (6 wins, 3.48 ERA).
SEA 45: 81-81
Offense/Defense: The offense will be off a little without Bell's .336/48/127 - I don't see anyone else around that can replace that. I suppose Doug Duncan has one more big year in him - I can see it now: a few years down the road a new owner comes in, looks at Duncan's 700+ HR's and declares him a "HOF no-brainer". His half-season road numbers (.792 OPS) are decidedly non-HOF-ish. For that matter, the team's road OPS last year of .729 suggests a bottom-half-of-the-AL lineup. Their 126 errors and 54/56 +/- didn't help out the better-than-it-looks pitching staff.
Pitching: Is Colorado setting up for a rebuild? Juan Martinez' contract expires this year, Sam Stock's next. They did give Lon Loman a 5-year contract (slightly front-loaded). How do you manage a pitching staff in Colorado anyway? Mark Pettite's not a HOF'er or a CY winner, but he's a pretty good pitcher, and his ERA's in Colorado were 6.60 and 6.80...how much worse can you get than that? Does it make sense in COL to just run out the 12 or 13 cheapest pitchers you can find and then spend on offense until you get a lineup that hits 400 HR's?
Forecast: How to forecast a team that actually has poor hitting but puts up big hitting numbers, and actually has pretty good pitching but puts up terrible pitching numbers?
Prediction: 71-91
SEA 45: 78-84
Offense/Defense: The Crue have been one of Hobbs' best defensive teams the last few years and posted a remarkable 97/17 +/-, although their errors crept up again to 94. In their good years, their lineup has been in the top half of the AL even with the superb fielding; last year the bottom fell out of the offense (685 runs). Some was due to attrition - 1B Dillon Mateo moved on and while his replacement Clint Susac wasn't terrible (.275/22/68) he wasn't Mateo. They did have quite a few year-to-year drop-offs but none were terrible: feels like a rebound to something like 730 runs.
Pitching: Very good last year with a 3rd-best 3.84 ERA. Amazing stat: they used only 5 starters and only 11 pitchers in total all season. Matty Ludwick is Exhibit A in the argument for pitches over splits, or at least over vL. Sticky Puffer had his only season with a sub-4 ERA, so get ready for a return to the 4.30 range. Jenkins and Alomar are pretty reliable in the 3.70-4.10 ERA area - not bad for #3 and 4 starters. Hughes is their wild card starter - he can put up pretty good numbers but don't expect them or he'll disappoint. Like most bullpens theirs has a lot of holes but will get some nice performances from unexpected places.
Forecast: Along with Honolulu, this team remains the hardest to predict. I think they'll bounce back some this year because their lineup has to be better, and I don't see a pitching implosion on the horizon. One of our surprise teams this year.
Prediction: 90-72
SEA 45: 85-77
Offense/Defense: With 2B Ainsworth, 3B Stock, SS Fonville, and RF Willie Taylor, Vegas has 4 of the top talents at their position in all Hobbs, much less the division. All have power, get on base and (except Fonville, who's merely good at SS) are superior defenders (Taylor would be a 3B - and a very good one - on any other team). The 'geese have been able to put enough compliments around their Big 4 to keep them in the top half of the AL offensively. It's a power and speed lineup that's a little short on the on-base department, and the punch is definitely concentrated in those 4 bats. The D only committed 77 errors and notched a very good 82/23 on +/- plays.
Pitching: Scharein probably becomes the #1 starter, replacing...well, they really didn't have one last year so it's an upgrade. Beyond that they have another 6 SP's battling for 4 jobs. Niko Ryan likely claims one based on last year's 2.61 ERA, but beyond that it's anyone's guess. The bullpen's a hodgepodge. Yimi Arcia has always looked like he could like he could string together a few good seasons, but he never did and isn't likely to start now. Polin Padilla looks like an Arcia clone and has had similar results.
Forecast: The more I look at this team beyond the Big 4, the less enthusiastic I get, but I do think Scharein gives them another handful of wins.
Prediction: 89-73
Division Race
1. Los Angeles
2. Las Vegas
3. Oakland
4. Colorado
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