SEA 45: 54-108
Offseason: Picked up 2B Timothy Blake in a trade, signed 9 FA's on mostly budget deals, promoted C Sammy Rivero and P Luigi Navarro, and signed Rule V'er Alex Lewis. coach34 starts the rebuild. As for the newcomers, Lewis probably gets DH duty until they move Dickerson - he'll be good enough I think. Fautino Castillo will still contribute this year - next year I'm not so sure. I like the deal for 2B Blake - he'll be a good defender with a pretty good batting average.
Offense/Defense: Of the holdovers, Heath Dickerson and Felix Cave are the big producers. The addition of 1B Lewis lets the Mashers shop Dickerson around - watch for a deadline deal to a contender. Cave has been an .845 OPS hitter his first 2 seasons and is probably in the team's long-term plans - he has great health, great durability and plus defense at LF or 1B. Decent, not great lineup...certainly good enough to get them over the mwr number. Just OK defensively last year but they did make 74 good plays. Returnees Dickerson (21) and SS Carlos Mercedes (15) had the bulk, and the additions of Blake at 2B and FA Michael Esquerra in CF will bump those totals up. Defense should be nicely improved.
Pitching: Last year's staff was a disaster, so the wholesale changes are welcome. The bullpen has 2 solig cogs in Tiny James (23 saves, 2.93 ERA as the closer) and Benny Lira (3.42 ERA in 108 IP), but from there it will fall to the newcomers to step up. Yeah, maybe Ruben Pescado has better than a 5.00 ERAin him? S43's #7 overall, Ken Stevens, looks like he'll get the call in 20 games and will become the #1 starter on arrival.
Forecast: It'll be another trying year with the staff, but I think the lineup talent gets them over the mwr pretty easily.
Prediction: 62-100
SEA 45: 78-84
Offseason: Took on the last year of 38-yo Jean-Carlos Gonzalez' contract. One of the season's interesting subplots is Gonzalez' quest for 800 HR's. He needs 27 - I can't really see enough playing time for him to get there, but stranger things have happened. Big FA money for Ezequiel Escobar, but he's still a good pitcher and the market was tight this year.
Offense/Defense: 763 runs last year-not bad but they could use a boost somewhere. Maybe Gonzalez can be better than DH Bartolo Martin; Martin starts the season on the DL so Gonzalez will get at least a brief shot. They'll probably get a Tanyon Joyner rebound from a .778-OPS season (not to S44's .991 but a career average .837 is totally realistic). They have plus hitters (as well as ace defenders) at 2B (Pablo Guerrero) and CF (Chico Astacio) - both on the back nine but still productive. Milwaukee's a very good defensive team - only 82 errors and a cool 92/12 +/- (5 players had 10 or more good plays last year. They're gonna lose a little with Stolmy Rodriguez at SS).
Pitching: The staff posted a respectable 4.12 ERA last year (tied for 6th in AL). The question is who they can really count on. Closer Mateo Andrus? Yes, more or less. Setup Rymer Merced? Sometimes. SP Stan Story? Yeah but it's less than "hell yeah". Escobar? Not quite. Point is, it's the kind of staff that needs some surprise (good) performances to have a good overall season. Sometimes you don't get enough of those.
Forecast: OK, 30 1-run losses meant 9 fewer wins than expected last year - 87 wins would've gotten them the 2nd wildcard. Not likely they'll be that unlucky 2 years straight.
Prediction: 86-76
dakar
SEA 45: 111-51, won Division, advance to ALCS and lost to Montgomery
Offseason: When you won 111 games and the team's still young, why do anything?
Offense/Defense: 864 runs behind the Merced MPV season (.325/48/141). The scary thing is, they could be better. LF Estrada had the worst season of his first 4. C Guerrier could be better. 2B Mack could be better. Criminy, they have Yoslan freakin' Goya as a backup OF (OK, maybe he's the DH). To top it off, it's a ridiculously good defense. League-leading 107 good plays (3B Higashioka with 23, SS Wilhelm with 18, CF Panik with 17) and a league-low 57 errors.
Pitching: Always nice to have an ace: Pascual Castillo won his first CY last season and could certainly get more with that lineup and defense behind him. He leads a most-of-the-time 4-man rotation (with Einar Vargas, Nicky Glaus, and James Haney) with starts as needed by Erik Duncan. Stellar, deep bullpen led by Happy Cepeda and Edgard Mendoza - both inexplicably bad last year and it didn't make a bit of difference.
Forecast: Most complete team in the AL, nothing but 100-win seasons into the foreseeable future.
Prediction: 108 - 54.
SEA 45: 93-69, Wild Card, advance to Round 2 and lost to KC
Offseason: Just 1 FA deal - 3B Santo Pujols
Offense/Defense: Philly's plan on offense is "max possible power at every position." So we get 3 players with 40+ homers (3B Valle, 2B Shea, and RF Martin) and 1 more with 35 (LF Stinnett). It's worth noting that 3 of those 4 are 23 or 24 yo, and the old guy of the bunch, Valle, is just 27. I'd like to see 1 or 2 table setters with .375+ on-base ability, but hey, if HR's are your thing be who you are and let it rip. I'd be more critical if they were going for all-power at the expense of defense, but they're not. It's not a flamboyant D (only 63 + plays) but it's efficient - just 24 bad plays and 84 errors. One other note - their 78% SB success rate was #2 in the AL.
Pitching: The 3.83 ERA was #2 in the AL, so it's a good thing they were able to keep the staff together. The rotation is solid but not without questions. Santo Gutierrez' 2.71 ERA last year certainly looks like an outlier. On the other hand, both Alcantera and Mann look like "high floor" guys you can count on for 200 good innings every year. Schulte was a run above his career ERA last year and will probably improve, while Burch is clearly a #5 starter but pretty good as fives go. The real strength of the staff is the late relief. Closer Yordano Valdes and setups Aurelio Duran and Alex Sanchez give the 'doggs 225 lockdown late innings - an incredible weapon. Btw, if Valdes can maintain his recent save rate (about 38/year) for 3 more seasons, he'll be our career saves leader.
Forecast: I don't think their starting pitching is stout enough for them to challenge KC in the regular season, but it seems like better than a 93-win team.
Forecast: I don't think their starting pitching is stout enough for them to challenge KC in the regular season, but it seems like better than a 93-win team.
Prediction: 97-65
Division Race:
1. Kansas City
2. Philadelphia
3. Milwaukee
4. Montreal
No comments:
Post a Comment