How Are My Predictions Panning Out?

OK, table shows wins through 53 games, what that translates into for the season, and what my predicted wins for the season were, along with a few musings.

As usual, my predictions are terrible.  Best illustrated this year by Scottsdale's 110-win pace versus my prediction of 68.

Enjoy.  

		Season
	Wins	Pace	Predicted	Comment
Austin	29	89	82	Signs of life after 5 seasons – big surprise is 3rd-ranked bargain pitching staff
Boston	29	89	75	Jesus Guapo was indeed the inspiration here, fortunately it's only 21 games
Cleveland	20	61	72	Benitez (.316/11/33) has lived up to the hype but needs a little more help
Colorado	22	67	71	About as expected – good pitchers getting shelled and average hitters posting All-Star stats
Columbus	26	79	95	Hitting and pitching both off just a little from last year – expect a recovery
Dover	15	46	60	A bit unlucky so far – expcected .338 % would put them on 55-win pace
Durham	22	67	82	The offense is there, but you know it's trouble when the best ERA on your staff is 4.29
Florida	29	89	80	Nice starts by SP's Owen, League and Bradley have them in the playoff picture
Honolulu	22	67	92	Team-wide slump (Hooks Gose hitting .193?) won't persist, but they remain a baffling team to predict
Houston	29	89	85	Last year their 4.23 ERA was #12 in NL; this year its 4.23 is #7
Jackson	28	86	85	#7 in OPS last year, #16 so far this year...age or a temporary slump?
Jacksonville	30	92	100	Quinn Lewis showing what a #21 pick can do when you back him with elite defense
Kansas City	33	101	108	Defense not up to normal standards, but #2 in ERA and runs
Las Vegas	27	83	89	Only real difference from last year is they're not on track for 30 1-run wins
Los Angeles	24	73	90	Prediction said, “1 of our surprise teams” and I'm sticking with it – more RS than RA and under .500
Milwaukee	32	98	86	Outscoring everybody thanks to Pablo Guerrero leading both leagues in HR and RC
Montgomery	33	101	105	Actually outplaying their expected % by 50 points at the moment
Montreal	24	73	62	Surprising lineup (Fautino Castillo .991 OPS) has them well ahead of prediction
New Orleans	19	58	80	Big-name SP's (Jodie – 5.82 ERA and Zhang – 5.63 ERA) need to turn it around to hit mwr
New York	31	95	95	If you make enough predictions, eventually you'll be right on one
Oakland	13	40	85	last year's #6 pitching staff suffering a near-total collapse; I don' think this can continue
Ottawa	22	67	59	Behind Rosario's bid for 5-straight 40-HR seasons, they are indeed scrapping ahead of prediction
Philadelphia	32	98	97	They love the longball in Philly – team is on a 330-HR pace
Pittsburgh	28	86	74	So far they're getting the “good” Vasco Alonzo (6 wins, 2.45 ERA in 69 IP)
Richmond	29	89	90	Solidly in the playoff picture despite giving up on former ROY and MVP Chick Rosenthal
Salt Lake City	17	52	71	Illustrating the risk of going super-cheap in the era of the escalating mwr
San Francisco	36	110	108	Ho-hum...#1 in runs scored, ERA, and +/- plays
San Juan	22	67	85	In this park there's always a risk of pitching staff explosion – ERA is up a run a game so far
Scottsdale	36	110	68	Offense has gone from 15th to 8th; pitching from 11th to 2nd. Best surprise of Hobbs so far.
Toledo	28	86	83	The 4 Game 20 callups haven't had much impact yet but will help a playoff run
Toronto	30	92	95	This is a playoff team, but I don't think Darrell Ryan can maintain a 1.049 OPS
Vancouver	31	95	81	Traded their way into contention in just 3rd Season. Rosenthal terrible so far -big 2nd half comeback