How Are My Predictions Panning Out?

OK, table shows wins through 53 games, what that translates into for the season, and what my predicted wins for the season were, along with a few musings.

As usual, my predictions are terrible.  Best illustrated this year by Scottsdale's 110-win pace versus my prediction of 68.

Enjoy.  

		Season
	Wins	Pace	Predicted	Comment
Austin	29	89	82	Signs of life after 5 seasons – big surprise is 3rd-ranked bargain pitching staff
Boston	29	89	75	Jesus Guapo was indeed the inspiration here, fortunately it's only 21 games
Cleveland	20	61	72	Benitez (.316/11/33) has lived up to the hype but needs a little more help
Colorado	22	67	71	About as expected – good pitchers getting shelled and average hitters posting All-Star stats
Columbus	26	79	95	Hitting and pitching both off just a little from last year – expect a recovery
Dover	15	46	60	A bit unlucky so far – expcected .338 % would put them on 55-win pace
Durham	22	67	82	The offense is there, but you know it's trouble when the best ERA on your staff is 4.29
Florida	29	89	80	Nice starts by SP's Owen, League and Bradley have them in the playoff picture
Honolulu	22	67	92	Team-wide slump (Hooks Gose hitting .193?) won't persist, but they remain a baffling team to predict
Houston	29	89	85	Last year their 4.23 ERA was #12 in NL; this year its 4.23 is #7
Jackson	28	86	85	#7 in OPS last year, #16 so far this year...age or a temporary slump?
Jacksonville	30	92	100	Quinn Lewis showing what a #21 pick can do when you back him with elite defense
Kansas City	33	101	108	Defense not up to normal standards, but #2 in ERA and runs
Las Vegas	27	83	89	Only real difference from last year is they're not on track for 30 1-run wins
Los Angeles	24	73	90	Prediction said, “1 of our surprise teams” and I'm sticking with it – more RS than RA and under .500
Milwaukee	32	98	86	Outscoring everybody thanks to Pablo Guerrero leading both leagues in HR and RC
Montgomery	33	101	105	Actually outplaying their expected % by 50 points at the moment
Montreal	24	73	62	Surprising lineup (Fautino Castillo .991 OPS) has them well ahead of prediction
New Orleans	19	58	80	Big-name SP's (Jodie – 5.82 ERA and Zhang – 5.63 ERA) need to turn it around to hit mwr
New York	31	95	95	If you make enough predictions, eventually you'll be right on one
Oakland	13	40	85	last year's #6 pitching staff suffering a near-total collapse; I don' think this can continue
Ottawa	22	67	59	Behind Rosario's bid for 5-straight 40-HR seasons, they are indeed scrapping ahead of prediction
Philadelphia	32	98	97	They love the longball in Philly – team is on a 330-HR pace
Pittsburgh	28	86	74	So far they're getting the “good” Vasco Alonzo (6 wins, 2.45 ERA in 69 IP)
Richmond	29	89	90	Solidly in the playoff picture despite giving up on former ROY and MVP Chick Rosenthal
Salt Lake City	17	52	71	Illustrating the risk of going super-cheap in the era of the escalating mwr
San Francisco	36	110	108	Ho-hum...#1 in runs scored, ERA, and +/- plays
San Juan	22	67	85	In this park there's always a risk of pitching staff explosion – ERA is up a run a game so far
Scottsdale	36	110	68	Offense has gone from 15th to 8th; pitching from 11th to 2nd. Best surprise of Hobbs so far.
Toledo	28	86	83	The 4 Game 20 callups haven't had much impact yet but will help a playoff run
Toronto	30	92	95	This is a playoff team, but I don't think Darrell Ryan can maintain a 1.049 OPS
Vancouver	31	95	81	Traded their way into contention in just 3rd Season. Rosenthal terrible so far -big 2nd half comeback

Notable Game 20 Promotions

One of the important early-season dates happens (about) 20 games into the season, when a lot of promising rookies get the call.  Here are the big ones that just happened in Hobbs, with a few tidbits on each (if we could find anything).

Austin:  Alex Moren0 ( $22.8MM IFA S44) and Ryan Norman (#1 overall S44).  Immediate starters at 2B and 3B, Moreno has opened at a .350 BA clip and Norman homered in his first game. 

Durham: Deven Wakeland (21st-rounder S37, DITR).  ML experience in Seasons 42-44, highlighted by 4.54 ERA in 188 IP in S43.

Houston:  Gene Del Valle (#2 overall S42), Shane Williams (#4 overall S43), Paul Parker (supplemental S39), and Shawn Abbott (#28 S38).  Del Valle and Williams become the LF and CF starters, with Parker and Abbot starting 3 games so far.  

Milwaukee:  SP Socks Jenkins (#19 S41) and C Tony Suppan (supplemental S39).  19 innings in 3 starts so far for Jenkins; Suppan OPSing .994 through 16 games).  

San Juan:  RP Larry Padden (supplemental S43) - setup B type reliever.

Toledo:  P Jose Aceves ($10MM IFA S42), 2B Leandro Ramirez ($31.9MM IFA S43), LF Brian Graham (S43 #22 overall), and CF Garabez Espinosa ($26.1MM IFA S44).  Espinosa (LF or CF) and Ramirez (2B) become immediate impact starters; Aceves and Graham only got the call Saturday so their roles aren't clear yet.  

Toledo and Houston lead the promotion parade with 4 callups each - I'd say 2 on each of those teams are potential high-impact rookies, with Austin promoting a couple of big-impact players as well.  As for the best start so far, that has to go to Milwaukee's C Suppan: .333/4/10 in 60 AB's. 

Season 46 AL South Preview

Richmond High Rollers

bjc30

SEA 45:  80-82

Offseason:  One small FA deal - P Donald Helling.  Promoted P Toby Heffner (6 IP last season hardly counts).

Offense/Defense:  Looking over their lineup, I was expecting a top 6 or 7 offense with the likes of Destin Williamson, Miguel Fuentes, B.J. Kirby, and Chick Rosenthal.  But the first 3 had poor seasons, and Rosenthal had his second straight clunker after starting his career with ROY and MVP seasons.  So scoring was down by 90 runs.  Good bet for a bunch of comeback seasons here and back over 800 runs.  This is a slick-fielding team with just 74 errors (3rd in AL) last year and an excellent 80/18 +/-.  1B Fuentes, SS Almora, and 3B Thome  contributed 49 of the good plays.

Pitching:  They've been between #2 and #5 in AL ERA for 4 straight seasons now, so they know how to put together a staff.  Jumbo Morris is the big innings guy and #1 SP, followed by Franco, Hernandez, Bong and Skinner.  On first glance they don't look that impressive but they have something in common:  good pitches.  Gregorio Lira was outstanding in middle/long relief last year (5 wins, 12 saves, 3.03 ERA in 124 IP), but was atrocious the year before.  Anderson and Miro are just one season into their careers, so who knows.  The bullpen is a wildcard, but they also all have nice pitch assortments, so I think they'll be at least OK.  Sneaky good stff for not a lot of $$.

Forecast:  I like their story for this season - consistently good pitching plus solid D plus a big comeback for the lineup.

Prediction:  90-82

Montgomery Scotts

silentpadna 

SEA 45:  106-56, won Division, advanced to World Series and lost to San Francisco

Offseason:   They have to deal with some FA defections of note - C/DH Willie Germen, P Miguel Cedeno and RP Zeke Sears.  They also released CF Tanner Stynes.  They countered with a trade for SP Mark Pettite  and FA deals for P Mark Cromer and 1B Yamil Cairo.

Offense/Defense:  Top lineup in the AL, led by future HOFers Steve Walsh (.308/35/109) and Gerald Lim (.301/49/140).  Germen was a loss for sure, but with Stephen Whiten hitting .393 in 29 games last year, I'd say they have a capable replacement.  Trey Norman won't be the hitter Stynes was, but he's even better than Stynes was defensively.  The powerful lineup is remarkably proficient in the field as well - just 68 errors and 86/15 +/-.  7 defenders had 5 or more good plays last year.

Pitching:  Montgomery uses one of these wacky relievers-start-all-the-games-and-go-40-pitches setups that are so fashionable now.  Osborne, Merced and Mercado then become the focus in long relief with 40-50 appearances each (and the bulk of the wins).  Who knows, Pettite may work into that tandem rotation somehow but for now he seems to be the main setup man.  In any configuration, it's a talented staff that will be at least as good as last year's (#4 in AL ERA).

Forecast:  It's hard to see any falloff anywhere.  Just a matter of how far they go in the playoffs again.

Prediction:  105-57

Florida Poison Dart Frogs

groth911 

SEA 45:  84-78

Offseason:  Lost a bunch of aging vets (plus Bud Robbins, who was in Florida for about 300 AB's but they get the FA comp), so the annual makeover begins.  Re-signed Bradley, Osoria and Calixte and added a couple of SS's (Wayne Diaz and Archie Klein) on front-loaded deals to make them easier to trade. Promoted Noel Cruz, another SS.

Offense/Defense:  Florida employs the long-popular "shortstops back up everybody" lineup plan, opting for superior late-inning defense over more punch when they have leads.  Does this work better than a "normal" setup?  I don't really know and don't know how you'd test it, but I have a couple of ideas.  Perhaps a test for "late-inning super-effectiveness" is record in one-run games (the assumption being you kick in your all-SS's plan in close, late games).  Last year Florida was 25-19 in 1-runners - .568, a fair bit better than their overall .519.  The year before they were 17-29 - .370, or slightly worse than their overall .377.  Maybe beating your expected winning % is a better marker?  Last year's .519 topped expected by 40 points, or 6 and a half.  In the "down" year (assuming at least a little unlucky) of S44, they still beat their expected by 4 wins.  Hmmm.  In any event, the offense is Ezdra Rodriguez gets on base steals 2B, and Alexander Pickett drives him in.  There are other minor story arcs in this movie, but those are the basics.  As expected with all those SS's they're near the top of the AL in good plays (99 - 2nd), although they commit their share of errors (about AL average).

Pitching:  They've been hovering around league average since their big S42 (led the AL with 3.55 ERA).  The rotation of Montgomery, Benavente, Bradley, Owen and League will keep you in most games but isn't going to win them outright for you.  Calixte has been very good over his long career but gives you limited innings, and Chaz Ross remains a top closer.

Forecast:  1-run wins tend to bounce up and down from  season to season, and they were pretty lucky last year.  A little coming back to earth this year.

Prediction:  80-82

New Orleans Voodoo

bigmattr

SEA 45:  67-95

Offseason:  Lost - and signed - the usual mid-30's free agents on 1-year contracts typical of rebuilding teams. 

Offense/Defense:  Getting some interesting young pieces into place.  1B Engel Bastardo OPS'd .783 as a rookie.  2B  Raul Berrios will be an on-base wiz.  RF David Seneca had a 60-day DL stint but on-based .425.  Touki Epstein is now the "old pro" of the lineup at 30, but remains a plus hitter at CF.

Pitching:  Same story with the young pitchers.  Nori Zhang should be ready to break out after a 60-day DL stint affected 2 seasons.  Tony Arias is one of the AL's top young arms.  Short relief is in great shape with Byron Huff and Addison Jaime.  And they have ace starter Pat Jodie under team control (probably) through the end of his career.

Forecast:  The big question is, with this kind of talent, why haven't they decided to just go ahead and win?  It doesn't get much better than this.

Prediction:  80-82

Division Race:

1.  Montgomery     

2.  Richmond             

3.  Florida 

4.  New Orleans      

Season 46 NL East Preview

Jacksonville Fake ID's
topoftheworl
SEA 45:  92-70, Wild Card, advanced to Round 2 and lost to San Francisco

Offseason:  Juan Trinidad escaped to OAK in free agency, and  their only FA foray was $1.1MM for 40-yo Felipe Garza.  I'm a bit surprised, figured they'd crank up the spending a bit more to keep the window open.  Not that it's closing - Carlos Valdivia will experience some major ratings declines during the course of the season, but the rest of the team is still prime-time.  Got the roster up to 25 6 games into the season with the signings of  CF Santiago Olmeda, C Alving Salinas, SS Jesus Sardinha, and P Cookie McCartin.

Offense/Defense:  J'Ville runs a unique (and very effective) plan for their position players: start the lumber (Avila, Mlicki, Crawford, Kennedy, Valdivia, Campos, DeLeon) at every position except SS, then use backups that are all strong defensive SS/3B types (Bootcheck, Pagnozzi and Tatis).  Of course it helps that the starters are generally strong defensively, and the "defensive" backups aren't terrible at the plate.  It is worth noting that their runs scored dropped a whopping 220 runs from S44 to S45 with no significant lineup changes (or aging issues).  I'm predicting a pretty strong bounce-back.

Pitching:  Julio Cano was phenomenal in his first season in J'Ville - 20-7, 2.59 in 222 IP.  It's a 4-man rotation with Shane Jenkins at #2 followed by Colome and Mazzaro and Robinzon Fuentes stepping into the swingman role handled by Trinidad last year.  Beyond Cano, the "ace" of the staff is pretty much the entire pen.  Between Lewis, Bonilla, Vargas and Kohn they got about 440 innings in the 2's and 3's ERA - equivalent of about 2 more ace starters.  

Forecast:  With the big dropoff runs the ID's dropped 14 wins last year.  Other than Valdivia, all their prime hitters had worse seasons that in S44 - just an unlucky confluence of bad seasons.  Most, maybe all will have big comebacks.

Prediction:  100-62

Columbus Buckeyes
rdierkers
SEA 45:  99-63, won Division, advanced to NLCS and lost to San Francisco

Offseason:  Traded some middling prospects for 1B Eric Riley, P Matt Booker, and P Ronald Hoover.  Willie Matos departed in FA.  6 relatively low-budget FA signings - including re-signing P Bud Watson with the most significant one.

Offense/Defense: The Riley trade typifies the kind of deal good teams make.  Didn't give up much of anything, Riley's min salary for this year and a cheap arb for another.  He platoons with Atkins this year and next, and if you can't do better in S48 you arb him for 1 more year.  By S48 or S49 you find something better and let him go.  Well done on a minor trade.  That side note done, Keith Jones is the offensive star here.  He's a DH playing RF with all that brings (14 errors, 19 - ) and worth every boot to the tune of .322/52/115.  Louie Almonte drove in 83 last year and Kory Atkins 78, but after that they look a little thin in the RBI department.  They can expect a better year from Destin Harang and I think Trayce Zoltan (acquired last year) will be another solid lineup addition.  Middling defense with 112 errors and 75/31 +/-

Pitching:  3-time CY winner J.P. Rapp gives COL  an advantage in just about any playoff series.  He's almost certainly the best SP in the series and managed correctly, starts 2 games in a 5-gamer and 3 in a 7-gamer.  Of course you need help to get to those playoff series and Rapp has plenty (3.50 team ERA - 2nd in AL).  Al Viciedo (12-7, 3.07) is a very tough #2 and Lawrence Morey (17-12, 3.38) is just as tough with a more rubbery arm (250 IP).  They'll use those 3 as much as possible an fill in with Watson, Booker, Tejeda and Izquierdo.  It's a very strong bullpen - perhaps rivaling Jacksonville's in quality if not quantity - featuring Malachi Carver (9 wins, 11 saves, 2.14) in middle relief and Eibner and Lane for shorter stints.

Forecast:  They had some luck with 1-run games last year (30-13) so they beat their expected % by 50 points (8 wins).  I think the lineup additions give them a little more pop but not that much.

Prediction: 95-67

Dover Lastplace
justinuv
SEA 45:  70-92

Offseason:  Signed C Pablo Rodriguez and traded for 2B Marlon Norton.  C Scott King, 3B Dan Tipton, CF Al Young, and SP Will Hale  all saw just a few games last season, so they've essentially been promoted this year.

Offense/Defense:  They need to improve (a lot) on last year's 581 runs (dead last in NL).  They still have 2B Jack Hayes (will top 600 career HR's this year) hitting 40 bombs a year and LF Yoslan Nunez is a solid .790 OPS for his career, but they didn't really  add any fear-inspiring lineup pieces.  The good news is that the newcomers don't have to do much to improve on last season.  The defense needs similar improvement (37/44 +/-).  Unfortunately, their "better" (14 good plays and no bad plays in SS/CF) combination SS/CF Aaron Gibson got away in FA to New Orleans, leaving Glen Pinder (32 errors and 6 bad plays in half-time SS duty) as the only shortstop and no CF candidates with better than 78 range 77 glove.  Yipes.

Pitching:  Kinda better  news on the mound, as they were close to the NL average ERA last year.  But, several of those guys - especially the ones who carried them (Duffy Miller, A.J. Sweeney) took off in FA.  That leaves them with rotation of newcomer Hale, career 3.83 (not bad) ERA Andy Wagner, career 4.19 (OK) ERA Eric Kolb, career 3.32 (surprising in a good way) Hugh Cheney, and Pedro Morales (5.52 ERA in 357 innings).  The 'pen will be unpredictable, with only Luther Dodd possessing a consistent (good) record.  They've rolled the dice and shed a little talent here.  

Forecast:  Clearly they're rebuilding a cutting payroll - I hope they're not trimming it too close (their mwr is only 55 this year so if they're going to risk it this is the year).

Prediction:  60-102

Cleveland Vikings
klown61455
SEA 45:  69-93

Offseason:  Lost Dave Waters to Honolulu in FA.  Signed a budget half -a-staff for about $5.5MM (Jeanmar Ozuna, Alfredo Powell, Andre Counsell, Jarek Winston, Viosergy Crummack).  

Offense/Defense:  Just 608 runs last year but they're getting help Jose Benitez ($22MM IFA S41) got a few AB's last year but moves in as the fulltime SS - he's an exciting 2-way player.  The defense needs as much help (118 errors).  Benitez will have some errors but will improve on last year's SS (Don Graves - 35 errors and better suited to his current position of CF).

Pitching:  They were near the bottom of the NL at 4.40 ERA last year, but have replaced about half the staff.  I like the budget FA group they signed - it looks like Crummack, Winston and Ozuna will join Reagan Osborne and Mark Wallace in the rotation.  If Wallace can come anywhere near last year's heroic 2.93 ERA and 207 IP, the rotation will be OK.  With Counsell and Mark Post (semi-promising 3.71 ERA last year) in the 'pen it should be adequate.  

Forecast:  Another obvious rebuilder with a $19MM ML payroll, they have enough talent to easily clear their mwr (56), and we get to see the first glimmer of their future (Benitez).

Prediction:  72-90

Division Race:

1.  Jacksonville     
2.  Columbus         

3.  Cleveland                 

4.  Dover       

Season 46 AL North Preview

Montreal Mashers

coach34

SEA 45: 54-108

Offseason:  Picked up 2B Timothy Blake in a trade, signed 9 FA's on mostly budget deals, promoted C Sammy Rivero and P Luigi Navarro,      and signed Rule V'er Alex Lewis.  coach34 starts the rebuild.  As for the newcomers, Lewis probably gets DH duty until they move Dickerson - he'll be good enough I think.  Fautino Castillo will still contribute this year - next year I'm not so sure.  I like the deal for 2B Blake - he'll be a good defender with a pretty good batting average.  

Offense/Defense:  Of the holdovers, Heath Dickerson and Felix Cave are the big producers.  The addition of 1B Lewis lets the Mashers shop Dickerson around - watch for a deadline deal to a contender.  Cave has been an .845 OPS hitter his first 2 seasons and is probably in the team's long-term plans - he has great health, great durability and plus defense at LF or 1B.  Decent, not great lineup...certainly good enough to get them over the mwr number.  Just OK defensively last year but they did make 74 good plays.  Returnees Dickerson (21) and SS Carlos Mercedes (15) had the bulk, and the additions of Blake at 2B and FA Michael Esquerra in CF will bump those totals up.  Defense should be nicely improved.

Pitching:  Last year's staff was a disaster, so the wholesale changes are welcome.  The bullpen has 2 solig cogs in Tiny James (23 saves, 2.93 ERA as the closer) and Benny Lira (3.42 ERA in 108 IP), but from there it will fall to the newcomers to step up.  Yeah, maybe Ruben Pescado has better than a 5.00 ERAin him?  S43's #7 overall, Ken Stevens, looks like he'll get the call in 20 games and will become the #1 starter on arrival.  

Forecast:  It'll be another trying year with the staff, but I think the lineup talent gets them over the mwr pretty easily.

Prediction:  62-100

Milwaukee Chedda

Zattack 

SEA 45: 78-84

Offseason:  Took on the last year of 38-yo Jean-Carlos Gonzalez' contract.  One of the season's interesting subplots is Gonzalez' quest for 800 HR's.  He needs 27 - I can't really see enough playing time for him to get there, but stranger things have happened.  Big FA money for Ezequiel Escobar, but he's still a good pitcher and the market was tight this year.

Offense/Defense: 763 runs last year-not bad but they could use a boost somewhere.  Maybe Gonzalez can be better than DH Bartolo Martin; Martin starts the season on the DL so Gonzalez will get at least a brief shot.  They'll probably get a Tanyon Joyner rebound from a .778-OPS season (not to S44's .991 but a career average .837 is totally realistic).  They have plus hitters (as well as ace defenders) at 2B (Pablo Guerrero) and CF (Chico Astacio) - both on the back nine but still productive.  Milwaukee's a very good defensive team - only 82 errors and a cool 92/12 +/- (5 players had 10 or more good plays last year.  They're gonna lose a little with Stolmy Rodriguez at SS).

Pitching:  The staff posted a respectable 4.12 ERA last year (tied for 6th in AL).  The question is who they can really count on.  Closer Mateo Andrus?  Yes, more or less.  Setup Rymer Merced?  Sometimes.  SP Stan Story?  Yeah but it's less than "hell yeah".  Escobar?  Not quite.  Point is, it's the kind of staff that needs some surprise (good) performances to have a good overall season.  Sometimes you don't get enough of those.

Forecast:  OK, 30 1-run losses meant 9 fewer wins than expected last year - 87 wins would've gotten them the 2nd wildcard.  Not likely they'll be that unlucky 2 years straight.

Prediction:  86-76

Kansas City Jayhawks
dakar
SEA 45: 111-51, won Division, advance to ALCS and lost to Montgomery

Offseason:  When you won 111 games and the team's still young, why do anything?

Offense/Defense:  864 runs behind the Merced MPV season (.325/48/141).  The scary thing is, they could be better.  LF Estrada had the worst season of his first 4.  C Guerrier could be better.  2B Mack could be better.  Criminy, they have Yoslan freakin' Goya as a backup OF (OK, maybe he's the DH).   To top it off, it's a ridiculously good defense.  League-leading 107 good plays (3B Higashioka with 23, SS Wilhelm with 18, CF Panik with 17) and a league-low 57 errors.

Pitching:  Always nice to have an ace:  Pascual Castillo won his first CY last season and could certainly get more with that lineup and defense behind him.  He leads a most-of-the-time 4-man rotation (with Einar Vargas, Nicky Glaus, and James Haney) with starts as needed by Erik Duncan.  Stellar, deep  bullpen led by Happy Cepeda and Edgard Mendoza - both inexplicably bad last year and it didn't make a bit of difference.

Forecast:  Most complete team in the AL, nothing but 100-win seasons into the foreseeable future.

Prediction:  108 - 54.

Philadelphia Erffdoggs

wholck 

SEA 45:  93-69, Wild Card, advance to Round 2 and lost to KC

Offseason:  Just 1 FA deal - 3B Santo Pujols

Offense/Defense:  Philly's plan on offense is "max possible power at every position."  So we get 3 players with 40+ homers (3B Valle, 2B Shea, and RF Martin) and 1 more with 35 (LF Stinnett).  It's worth noting that 3 of those 4 are 23 or 24 yo, and the old guy of the bunch, Valle, is just 27.  I'd like to see 1 or 2 table setters with .375+ on-base ability, but hey, if HR's are your thing be who you are and let it rip.  I'd be more critical if they were going for all-power at the expense of defense, but they're not.  It's not a flamboyant D (only 63 + plays) but it's efficient - just 24 bad plays and 84 errors.  One other note - their 78% SB success rate was #2 in the AL.

Pitching:  The 3.83 ERA was #2 in the AL, so it's a good thing they were able to keep the staff together.  The rotation is solid but not without questions.  Santo Gutierrez' 2.71 ERA last year certainly looks like an outlier.  On the other hand, both Alcantera and Mann  look like "high floor" guys you can count on for 200 good innings every year. Schulte was a run above his career ERA last year and will probably improve, while Burch is clearly a #5 starter but pretty good as fives go.  The real strength of the staff is the late relief.  Closer Yordano Valdes and setups Aurelio Duran and Alex Sanchez give the 'doggs 225 lockdown late innings - an incredible weapon.  Btw, if Valdes can maintain his recent save rate (about 38/year) for 3 more seasons, he'll be our career saves leader.

Forecast:  I don't think their starting pitching is stout enough for them to challenge KC in the regular season, but it seems like better than a 93-win team.

Prediction:  97-65

Division Race:

1.  Kansas City     

2.  Philadelphia   

3.  Milwaukee      

4.  Montreal