NL North Season 42 Preview

Helena Hot Heads
dbreez
SEA 41: 83-79, won Division, lost to Pawtuckett in Round 1

Song Summing Up Season 41:  Lost Opportunity by Queen 

New owner dbreez immediately began the re-making of the Helena (formerly Tacoma) franchise by trading off Carlos Validivia,  Alex Vargas, Colin Morel, Niko Ryan, and Edgmer Gil.  What's left and where do they go from here?

Many of the dividends of the trade frenzy - 3B Fergie Schmidt, 2B Willie Manto, OF's Dario Chong and Orlando Nunez, and pitcher Gil Clemens - are decent prospects already in the majors, and not just low-level mwr-scrapers.

And the big plum of the J'Ville trade - Lorenzo Rosario - is ML-ready and fits perfectly into the current hole in CF.

So right now, all the moves look more like a re-load or re-shuffle than an all-out rebuild - just with a younger cast of characters.  Ace Pascual Castillo is still on the roster (you can bet they had a bunch of offers for him), and given his extremely high PAT and low TEM, Helena can count on him to re-sign indefinitely.  They might just go forward with him as their #1 for another decade. 

There are still some aging-roster challenges here.  Esmailyn Reynoso and Jair Costilla are still capable of contributing to a playoff run, but they're expensive and not the power sources they used to be.  Derrek Finley's 37 now.  And the pitching staff will have to replace 3 of their top 5 ERA's from last year (Glen Coste - FA, Mark Cromer - FA, and Ryan - trade.

Prognosis
All-in-all, I expect them to compete pretty well...just not quite at  last year's level.  The preseason has an incomplete feel to it, and if they look like they're slipping from contention stay tuned for a big Castillo trade.  77 wins, and they win the Division.

Chicago Orphans
cretins
SEA 41:  73-89


Song Summing Up Season 41:  Trade It All by Fabolous

From a 7-year contention run in Seasons 29-35 that saw 5 playoff appearances, Chicago has now gone 6 years without seeing the playoffs.  Is last year's sell-off setting up contention or continuing the futility?

The Orphans have so far have had almost all bad luck with Hong-Chi Park.  He hit 55 bombs the year they traded for him (Season 39), then slumped to 34 in an injury-shortened Season 40 and 14 last year in a season almost totally lost to injury.  Wrigley seems the perfect venue if they can keep him on the field.

That would certainly pump up the offense, as will the acquisition of C Hack Palmer - his career .823 OPS should translate to about .870 in Wrigley.  3B Jensen Helms is coming off his best ML season and should remain a viable  power threat for another 2-3 years.  But the rest of the lineup?  Forgettable.  IF Al Escobar, one of the 2 nice pieces of the Marks trade, will help but probably gets this year in AAA.

On paper, the Orphans have the worst pitching staff in the NL.  Addison Jaime is a nice young pitcher, but he's not a complete replacement for Marks.  And outside of a handful of others - Garces, Mercado, Coste - their pitchers just don't have the ratings to hold up in even a moderately hitter-oriented park like theirs.

Prognosis
If Park stays on the field, I think I could see them taking a step forward.  On the other hand, teams stuck in the 70's win range seem to never break out until they fix the defense, which Chicago hasn't done (.982 %, 24/61 on +/- plays).  There are some glimmers of light here, but not this year.  68 wins.

Cincinnati Red Stockings
statman527
SEA 41:  65-97

Song Summing Up Season 41:  (tie) Brand New Day by Van Morrison and Droppin' Things by Betty Carter

I find Cincy to be the most interesting team in an interesting division because I can't tell what they're doing.  They looked for all the world like an all-out rebuild last year with the Chris Osborne trade,  but then they held onto seemingly tradable commodities like Trenidad Cruz and Eli Izquierdo.  Did they sense that the division could be taken with less than 80 wins?

The offense will improve a bit when they promote Alex Kim and Darrell Ryan.  I don't think either will ever make an All-Star team, but they'll be big steps up from last year's low-700's OPS corner outfielders.  Whoever gets RF (probably Ryan) will also be a defensive plus (last year's RF, Bartolo Cela, basically played with his throwing arm in a sling, resulting in 10 "-" plays).  The seniors of the lineup, Cruz and 3B Miguel Ramirez, should still be reasonably productive this year.  Probably a few more runs for the offense, but I doubt they'll top 675.

To actually contend, Cincy needed to totally overhaul half the staff and they clearly didn't do that.  The top 3 (Houston, Schulte, and  Izquierdo) are good ML pitchers.  Closer Pablo Mendez should be, but his ERA's the last 2 seasons have been
5.54 and 4.89.  Beyond that they've promoted a couple of replacement-level (or below) rookies and are playing out the contracts of several Pedro Nesbitt's (who, to be fair, can give you a good season every few years).

Once change I'd like to see, whether they tilt more rebuild or contend, is to install Angelys Arias as the everyday SS.   He won't hit a lick, but will save a bunch of the 70 errors and - plays they piled up at SS last year...best possible gift for a talent-challenged pitching staff.


Prognosis
This division will probably surprise me.  A better offense here in Cincy, but just not enough pitching to really make a run. 70 wins.

New York Lincoln Giants
rbedwell
SEA 41:  63-99


Song Summing Up Season 41: (tie) Slow Burn by David Bowie

We know there's a super-team building in NY, the only question  is when they'll unleash it.  Probably not this year, but it will be spectacular when prospects like Yao-Lin Chen, Junior Burawa, Andres Arguelles, Gerald Seaver, Marvin Holland, Edgar Quixote, Felix Cave, Bernie Uribe, Daric Fordham, Jose Rios, and Hideki Uchida hit The Show in force.


Meanwhile, this year's ML edition is almost certain to top last year's 63 wins - that 18-33 record (which I believe was 0-10 to start the season) in 1-run games obscures how much talent is on this roster.  Ralph Clancy will probably never get a lot of MVP or All-Star recognition because he's not a monster power hitter, but will be one of Hobbs' most valuable RF's for another 10 years.  Clinton Waters showed promise in his first ML season and might be the best pitcher in their system at the moment.  And there are others on the roster - players like 2B Henderson Curtis and 3B Gus Vanguri - who are better than cheap rebuilding placeholders.

Prognosis
Repeat last year without the bad luck in 1-run games: 70 wins.

NL West Season 42 Preview

San Francisco Fog
pfontaine
SEA 41:   91-71, won Division, lost on Round 2 to Pawtuckett

Song Resembling Season 41: If Today Was Your Last Day by Nickelback

Four Key Moves That Make SF a WS Contender This Year 
Since its last big playoff push in Seasons 32 and 34, the Fog did a fairly quick rebuild from Seasons 35-39, moved back into contention in Seasons 40 and 41, and this year completed the moves to make it a serious WS threat.  Here were their 4 key moves:

1.  Traded for Kirk Marks.  They actually did this one around mid-season last year (and Marks thrived in the 2nd half), and it gives them, if not an ace, a #1 in an excellent rotation.  Crazy stat:  SF's 5 SP's this year ALL had ERA's under 3.00 during their stints in SF last year (Marks' ERA in Chicago pushed his ERA for the full season above 3.00).


2.  Rebuilt the pen.  Valdes is money in the 9th, of course, but needs a couple of good setup guys.  They lost Carver and Mullens in FA, so they went strong after Jeimer Pena (5 years, $40MM).  But just as important may have been the lower-profile, 2-year $5.5MM deal for Donald Helling (career 3.68 ERA).

3. Moved on from Harvey Tracy.  My guess is Tracy wanted more than a 1-year deal, so the Fog wisely declined to enter into a contract for a year or 2 or 3 of steeply declining ratings.  I thought they'd promote Francisco Guerrero, and they still might, but for now it looks like they'll go with either Yamil Cairo or a combination of Cairo and Lou Trammel at 1B.  I quibble a bit with the price for Cairo, as his career OPS of .878 is inflated by 3 (of a total of 5) years in COL and he can't catch or throw.  But if he falters they can turn to Trammel (he won't get much playing time in RF) or bring up Guerrero.

4.  Traded for Colin Morel.  In these days of HBD, when offensive production has finally declined to nearly the levels of real-life MLB, an infielder who can get on base at .368 is an incredible weapon.  He's not a GG at 2B but will handle it well defensively.  The move allows Rich Kohn to move to 3B - a better spot for his diminishing  range but still-strong arm - and possibly platoon with Chip Puffer.


Prognosis
I think they're at least 3 or 4 games better...maybe more...and with Marks, a more dangerous playoff threat.  This is the NL team most likely to knock off Jacksonville.  96 wins and Division Title.

Honolulu Luau Dogs
rockydawg07
SEA 41:  90-72

Song Resembling Season 41:  Baby Come Close by Smokey Robinson

Honolulu boasts one of Hobbs' top power hitters, 1B Brad Terry, who has topped 50 HR's in each of the last 3 seasons.  Outside of Terry, though, the average-ish offense struggles.  CF's Vic Campos and Javier Valenzuela are both terrific in the field, but neither has developed a particularly strong bat.  C Giomar Almadova flashes great power but has been inconsistent, and I fear his .376 OBP last year was a career high by a wide margin.  The Dogs traded 3B Carlos Polonia in the off-season...OK, but Albert Tejada isn't the 3B answer with either the bat or the glove.  FA Dallas Sever is likely to be the one net plus in the lineup this season.

Honolulu proved my bearish prediction wrong last year due to their heroic pitching efforts (3.54 ERA - 4th), but when you look at it you have to conclude that everything broke their way.  They only used 11 pitchers the whole season, meaning they had no injuries or at least only very minor ones.  The worst ERA on the team was Japhet Buchholz' 4.21, and I guarantee he's not the worst pitcher on this team.  Of the 9 pitchers from last year who are still with the team, ALL were at or below their career ERA's.  Their defense (.987, 72/25 on +/-) does indeed help, but a 3.53 team ERA ain't happening again.

Prognosis
Predictions of course, are a risky business and I'm worst than most.  So I may be guaranteeing a big season for the Luaua Dogs by predicting a fall to 80 wins.

Salem Witch Hunters
tk21775
SEA 41:  76-86

Song Resembling Season 41:  What's Left Standing by Hot Rod Circuit

Salem had a 10-year run if winning seasons until the last 2, and this off-season was the clear beginning of a rebuild.  What did they do and where do they stand.

Trade #1: 2B Arthur Taylor and P Jean Carlos Posada to Montgomery for David Seneca and Elrod Parkers.  Posada, of course, has been one of Hobbs' top pitchers (although not prolific) for 13 seasons, and should be good for another 3 or 4.  In my view Taylor has disappointed - broke in with a bang, winning the NL ROY, and hasn't topped .800 OPS since.  Seneca was last year's highest-paid IFA (in part because he showed up late in the season) and projects to be a high batting average/high OBP type OF.  He's already ML-ready or close; the only real question is how much improvement is still there given he was a 20-yo IFA.  Parkers is a better-than decent throw-in - he'll be a LR or 4th/5th starter for awhile in the Majors.  

I like this deal for Salem - so many preseason trades for obvious rebuilders look like give-ups - they got a solid return and an excellent future ML OF here.

Trade #2:  SP Ivan Beltre to San Juan for Dave Nathan.  Wow, nice job getting a pretty good 1st-rounder for a 38-yo pitcher, although Beltre clearly has a good season or 2 left.  Nathan (#15 overall last year) was one of top power guys in last year's draft...looks to me like a sure bet that his power develops fully (think 40 HR's) although he might only be a .240 BA/.310 OBP type.  His glove won't make it to 2B caliber but he could turn into a plus defender at 1B or LF. 

The Witch Hunters still have an old with a fairly high payroll, so some work to do to skinny that down.  But they've gotten off to a great start in rebuilding a productive minor-league pipeline.

Prognosis
67 wins.  

Scottsdale Cardinals
finnski
SEA 41:  72-90 

 Song Resembling Season 41:  Brown-Eyed Handsome Man by Chuck Berry; OK, no particular Scottsdale or Season 41 reference, but it's a baseball (catch the last verse)

The Cards have gotten a tough break already this season, with their prime FA acquisition Lawrence Hannity going on the DL for 60+ days.   This leaves their opening-day roster remarkably similar to last year's...can they improve with the same players?

Maybe.

Last year's 657-run offense (11th) was marked by some uncharacteristically bad seasons.  2B Howie Lee's .768 OPS was 85 points off his career mark.   Trever Fick, after years of being a backup , finally got his chance to be the everyday LF and fell flat.  3B Phillip Corsi fell a little under his career norm.  RF, while not worse than the recent past, was a total mess.  I don't know if there's cause to be overly optimistic, any or all of those guys could improve markedly this year.

The pitching staff was probably a bigger mess (4.53 ERA), and it probably is what it is.  #1 Billy Walker had his best season (13 wins, 3.97 ERA), hybrid MR/SP Paul Tanaka sparkled with a 3.22 ERA in 33 starts, and closer Ronald Hoover converted 39 of 43 save opportunities, so there's some room for optimism.  But there were way too many ERA's in the 4's and 5's, and for many of those arms it looks like more of the same.

Prognosis
Since their WS trip in Season 34, the Cards have been consistently in the 70's in wins, and I can't see them brealing out of that trend this year.  71 wins.
 

AL West Season 42 Preview

Oakland Shillelagh
rourke
SEA 41: 90-72, won Division, advanced to
2nd Round and lost to Boston

Song resembling Season 41:  Small Differences by Sylvie

One of the more baffling statistical outliers of recent seasons was Oakland's incredible 41-19 record in 1-run games last year.  That luck, efficiency, or both took a .500 team (scored 713 runs, allowed 723) and propelled it to 90 wins and the West Title.

The A's AL-leading staff suffered the FA loss of about 400 quality innings in the form of Derrick Dawkins', Bernie Gonzalez', and Anthony Paulino's departures.  They replaced the innings with more or less similar quality by signing Mark Cromer and Christian Nakamura; I'd think at some point this season they'll also have to promote Season 36 #8 Luther Padden.  The staff seems to be in good shape.

The 713-run offense needs some help, but I don't know how they get it.  Given the run-suppressing nature of the ballpark, it seems 1B Marmol, 2B Harang, 3B Langerhans, super-utility Haren, and RF Olmos (led the team with an .861 OPS last year) are all producing pretty well.  Season 37's #1 pick (9 overall)  Peter Stockton will almost certainly get the call early, either to man LF or take CF and push Paolo Ordonez to LF.

FA signee Hawk Christians will add a little pop at C, but is primarily the type of ace signal-caller Oakland has preferred in recent years.  

I can't argue with how they're putting together the lineup, but it still looks like 720 runs.  Also as befitting the park, their defense helps out the staff quite a bit (100/24 on +/- plays, .986 fielding %).

Prognosis
I like the team, but everything about it says ".500," and there's no way they're winning 41 1-run games again.  81-81.

Colorado House of Horrors
werniss
SEA 41:  84-78

 Song resembling Season 41:  We Will Rock You by Queen

Colorado has a monster offense, right?
 1014 runs (1st)
277 HR's  (1st)
.869 OPS  (1st) 

How about on the road...AWAY from Coors:
111 HR's (7th)
.748         (13th)

Colorado has lousy pitching, right?
888 Earned runs allowed (last)

How about AWAY from Coors?
321 Earned runs allowed (2nd)

Does this suggest that HBD park effects are a little overstated?

The HoH re-signed their own free agents other than Kelvim Hasegawa and  Albert Hernandez, and they replaced Hernandez with Edgar Jiminez - should be an upgrade.

They were also active in the trade market and no deal was bigger than the acquisition of Brian Neill, a 2nd-round draft pick and fairly ordinary-looking, light-hitting SS going nowhere in the Kansas City organization.  Why?

Because Colorado SS's were historically bad last year.  Orber Brantley committed 41 errors and 20 bad plays at SS, and Vic Meulens chipped in 5 more of each.  Neill could get 10-12 + plays and will cut the errors at least in half - huge upgrade.  And they still get Brantley's bat in the lineup at either 3B or LF.

Juan Martinez returned to form (as predicted) with a 3.94 ERA in 162 IP, although his 2.22 ERA on the road is more indicative of how he pitched.  Sam Stock posted his usual sterling numbers, but Aurelio Duran faltered a bit to a 4.14 ERA. 

I'd like to see Colorado bring back Hasegawa (or a similar LF) for 1 more campaign in the mountains, as they really need the offense and have already shored up pitching and defense.  It'll take some salary-cap gymnastics, but it would be worth it to see Hasegawa get the all-time doubles record (he needs 37 to top Lewis Gilkey's 632.

Prognosis
Better team than last year's model with improved pitching and D (especially), although the offense may fall off some.  2 more wins to 86, but not quite enough for the Division.

Los Angeles Motley Crue
iceman67
SEA 41:  83-79

Song resembling Season 41:  Hotel California by The Eagles:  since nobody knows what it means, no one can argue the connection.  And I love the Felder/Walsh guitar duo at the tend.

Coming off  2 semi-historic defensive efforts (227 + plays over 2 seasons) that did produce a playoff appearance, where do the Crue turn now in a division that seems up for grabs?

For a team with such a good defense (and pitchers' park), LA actually scores a lot of runs - 801 last year, putting them just a hair below the AL average.  DH Jed Tallet (.273/48/110), C Moe Morgan (.297/33/107), and RF Clint Susac (.285/26/104) handle a chunk of the run production while LF Yoervis DeJesus (.283, 102 runs) and 1B Dillon Mateo (.363 OBP, 94 runs) are the primary table-setters.  DeJesus and Mateo, along with 3B Jose Rosa,  are also pretty nifty thieves (35, 31 and 32 steals out of an AL 2nd-best 171).  So they can slug with most teams and also small-ball you when the bats get cold.

The rotation (Ludwick, Bako, Alomar, Puffer, and Cornelius) is largely a testament to the efficacy of pitching ratings...or maybe a test thereof as Alomar and Puffer are new to the rotation and Cornelius is a 26-yo rookie.  I have to label the bullpen as "extremely" suspect - LA brought back 39-yo Wil Gray and 40-yo Al Troncoso for what's likely to be a total of 50 innings of work that worsens as the season progresses.  One bullpen bright spot could be 28-yo rookie and DITR Murray Brooks, who at worst can soak up a lot of innings and could turn out to be pretty good.

The most interesting aspect of this well-rounded team remains the defense, which recorded 107 + plays.  2B Tony Acosta (28 + plays and 2 consecutive GG's) and CF Desi Cespedes (24 + plays and 3 straight GG's) are the rock-star defenders although Rosa, Mateo and DeJesus also had double-figure + plays. 

Prognosis
I don't think they're appreciably better than last year's squad, but the Season 41 version got pretty unlucky with a 16-27 mark in 1-run games.  If that reverted to something like a still-unheroic 22-21, that's 89 wins and Division Crown.

Las Vegas Desperados
weeback
SEA 41:  76-86

Song resembling Season 41:  Future Bright by Jordan Sandhu, Bunty Bains, The Boss

The Desperados' strategy seems to be to mix their rising stars like Greg Stock,  Willie Taylor, and Einar Vargas with budget free agents on short (mostly 1-year contracts) and hope that the sum adds up to more than the parts.  It was reasonably successful last year, producing a 7-win improvement.  If they can beat that improvement a little this year, we might have a 4-team race in the West.

Stock is the undisputed superstar and he really delivered last year, OPS'ing .900...and he should have won the 3B GG (.987 % and 22 + plays to winner Hanley Chase's .987 and 18...how does that happen?).  Taylor and Vargas both stepped up on their sophomore seasons - Taylor with a .918 OPS and Vargas with a 3.76 ERA in 208 IP).  

They might be joined this year by Season 40 #1 overall Eddie Fonville - he only has 2 pro years and wouldn't be a great hitter yet, but could more than hold his own now at 2B, 3B or CF.  All-in-all, it probably would be a positive move, but he might benefit with a AAA season, especially under the tutelage of new AAA RF Jin-Chi Itou.

Who knows how to predict what the new crop of aging FA's will do.  New 1B Branden Clarkson will have to hustle to beat the performance of last year's 1B Jacob Sheldon (.817 OPS and 19+ plays), but he certainly could do it.  I like the new SS tandem of Vega and Suzuki to out-pick last year's SS's, but I'm not as sanguine about the prospects for 41-yo Derrick Dawkins (but he was cheap).

Prognosis
I think Vegas is the least predictable of the AL West combatants...I guess I could see them falling below last year's win total or winning 90 if all of their youngsters have great seasons AND a couple of vets catch lightning one more time.  I'm going to be a little romantic and say they get into the mix for the AL West title, but fall a little short with 85 wins.

Trade Digest, Volume 3

The Helena Hot Heads trade Edgmer Gil and cash to the Montgomery Scotts for Willie Manto and Orlando Nunez

A clear salary dump for Helena.  Though Gil is young (25) he’s a really expensive 4^th starter.  Manto and Nunez are career minor leaguers who are above average backups, but not starters on a good team.  Helena clears salary, the Scotts get the best player in the deal.  Everyone wins.



The Helena Hot Heads trade Niko Ryan to the Las Vegas Desperados for Marshall Coleman

Another salary deal for the Hot Heads.  Ryan is a low inning 3^rd starter. Ryan is fine, nothing special, but could play for everyone.  He’s 31 so not old enough to worry about the age.  Coleman is a pretty special 4^th round draft pick.  23 and in his 3^rd pro year, he’s already a very good set up B/low end setup A.  He surely will finish as an average setup A and maybe even a low end closer.  I really like this deal for Helena even though I worry about how much talent they will have left on their ML roster.  For Vegas it might be a slight overpay, but close enough.  If Vegas thinks they are a playoff team this year Ryan will certainly help that happen.



The Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners trade Deven Cedeno and Junior Clevinger to the Colorado House of Horrors for Chad Reid.



Not sure why Colorado made this deal.  The only player with plus ability in the deal is Reid who is a decent set up A guy in the last year of his deal.  Not going to change the world, but a nice asset on a short-term deal.  Cedeno is not a ML level player at 33.  Clervinger is and is the youngest player in the deal (28).  He is a long B/Mopup guy, but is a ML player.

The one fun part of this deal is that Jackson sent $35,000 in the deal.  This is a nonsense amount of money.  However, $350,000 would have made the money basically even.  My theory is a 0 was missed in the offer.



The Kansas City Jayhawks trade Andres Alvarez and cash to the Jackson Mississippi Moonshiners for Maicer Candelario



A fair deal for both teams.  On its face it looks like Dakar’s Jayhawks got the better end of the deal.  However, when I dug a little deeper it looks fair.  Kansas City continues to plow its crop of decent ML’ers under.  Alverez has constantly overperformed his ratings due in no small part to be a switch hitter.  This makes him a functional corner outfielder.  He’ll never be an all-star, but he carries his weight.  Candelario looks terrific on first blush, but in my experience starter that depend on their vs. L tend to be inconsistent.  3.00 one season and 5.00 the next.  Candelario will likely be an average 3^rd starter.  He’ll be a 10 ML player, but will all over the map ERA wise. 

NL East Season 42 Preview

Jacksonville Fake ID's
topoftheworl
SEA 41:  109-53, won Division, won World Series

Song resembling  Season 41:  We Are the Champions by Queen

As is his annual habit, top pulled off one of the biggest deals of the off-season, landing 3-time MVP Carlos Validivia and excellent (3.35 ERA) reliever Alex Vargas for CF prospect Lorenzo Rosario, 24-yo RP Gil Clemens and OF Dario Chong.  The trade shores up an already-prolific offense (807 runs last year, #2 in the NL) and an already-elite bullpen: their top 4 relievers (Morlan, Sosa, Kohn, and Urbina) all posted ERA's under 3.70 last year.

If there is a weakness in J'Ville (and that's by no means a certainty) it's the starting rotation; there's no ace or clear #1.  Still, aided by a tight defense (.987 fielding % and 98 + plays versus only 28 - plays) they were more than adequate last year.  Esmerling Martin was spectacular (12-5, 2.62) after arriving from OKC, Rusney Colome was the ironman (18-11, 3.38 in 261 IP, Shane Jenkins continued to shine (14-5, 3.71), and Shep Mazzaro surprised everybody with a near-ROY effort (14-7, 4.04) effort.

Can that staff repeat those numbers?  Martin and Colome were quite a bit better than their career norms, and Mazzaro could easily post a 5.00 ERA.  Veteran Cliff Floyd will likely see more starts this year, and if someone falters they could turn to Tony Arias.  He's certainly major-league ready, and while he doesn't have the stamina (53) of a classic starter, the 'pen can certainly handle innings 6-9 if he gets regular starts.

The ID's' defense  certainly bolsters the pitching numbers.  Their .987 fielding % was just a point off the league lead, and their 90 plus plays were 8 back of NL Leader Baltimore.  1B Tanner Mlicki led with 18 + plays; 2B Lou Crawford posted 14 and 3B Alex Kennedy recorded 13.  They could use a real CF (Greg Ward - 7 - plays), but it's a minor flaw in an otherwise sterling defense.

Prognosis
I think everything went right with their rotation last year, and I can't see that happening again.  But the offense and 'pen are even better, so it's hard to predict much of a falloff.  106 wins and they take the Division again.

Columbus Buckeyes
rdierkers
SEA 41:  105-57, Wild Card, lost to Texas in Round 1 

 Song resembling  Season 41:  Hit That Jive by Gramatik

The challenge this off-season was re-creating a 100+ win team after a good chunk of the roster filed for free agency (pitchers, Derrin Duncan, Alfredo Osoria, and Boots Snider; and position guys Gene Cummings, Bryan Valaika and B.C Alfonzo).

The good news is with the exception of Alfonzo, none of those guys were core components of the machine that has 290 wins the last 3 years, and they just re-signed Alfonzo.  

Looking at their lineup you probably wouldn't guess that they led the NL with 819 runs last year.  They're not one of those monster power-hitting teams - Rafael Moreno's modest 29 bombs topped the team - but they get on base (league-leading .345 OBP) and from there it's RBI-by-committee with 13 players contributing more than 30 RBI.

The pitching staff is similarly efficient.  Yes, J.P. Rapp was magnificent (22-5, 2.67 in 262 innings) in winning his 2nd CY, but starters 2,3 and 4 (Keller, Viciedo and Tepera in some order) notched 41 wins and all posted ERA's under 3.70.  I'm not sure if Andre Counsel was injured last year, but he only threw 100 or so innings; if he can get back to 180-200 innings I think the Buckeyes will again have the most effective 5-man roatation in the NL.  The bullpen is not as deep as J'Ville's, but has a pair of legit stars in Andrew Lane and Malachi Carver.

Like Jacksonville, Columbus helps its staff with stingy defense:  a .988 fielding percentage and 64/15 on +/- plays.

Prognosis
105 wins is a pace that's tough to maintain, especially with a team getting some age on it.  This is still a very good team, with an excellent shot at WS glory.  But I think the offense will regress a bit, and things almost never go perfectly with pitching staffs.  99 wins and a Wild Card.

Pawtuckett Paladins
mlhutch
SEA 41:  94-68, Wild Card, advanced to NLCS and lost to Jacksonville

 Song resembling  Season 41:  Sweat of the Bud by Static-X

The Paladins lost SP Lawrence Hannity in free agency but otherwise navigated the offseason unscathed.  To replace Hannity, they went to the economy aisle with Ernie Gaudin and Vic Quintero - at worst low-priced long relief or mopup guys and rotation contributors if they get lucky.

Pawtuckett trots out the NL's most power-packed (266 HR's) lineup with sluggers like 1B Jean-Carlos Gonzalez (50 last year and 653 for the career), 2B Jack Hayes (44 last year), 3B Bud Robbins (30), LF Yoslan Nunez (32), and RF Kory Atkins (35) all hitting 30 or more big flies.  For all the power, though, the lineup seems inefficient, scoring only 754 runs - 6th in the NL, despite drawing a good number of walks (525 - 4th).  That performance is quite consistent with Seasons 40 and 39, though, so it seems a good marker for what we can expect again.

The pitching staff was also 6th-ranked in the NL (3.74) ERA, but it somehow seems like they got more than their money's worth from this unheralded group.  Emblematic of this staff is Andy Wagner, who in 4 seasons has rolled up 50 wins and a 3.61 ERA in 792 IP...not ace-level but there's not a staff in Hobbs he wouldn't be welcome on.  How'd Pawtuckett come by his services?  He was signed as minor-league free agent in
Season 33.  The big break was picking up a DITR somewhere along the way, and he cracked the rotation as a rookie in Season 38.

Other than Willie Matos, the rest of the staff is similarly anonymous and more or less as effective (although I do expect an improvement over last year from Miguel Taveras).

Good D seems to be the rule in the East - The Paladins tied for first in fielding percentage at .988.  They do fall a bit below their division-mates in +/- at 52/35.


Prognosis
Pawtuckett has win totals in the 90's for 6 seasons now, and there's little reason to expect much change.  The power-centric offense will get old pretty soon with Gonzalez hitting age 34 and Hayes and Atkins 30, but not this year.  95 wins and a Wild Card.

Baltimore Crabs
jake72
SEA 41:  80-82

Song resembling  Season 41:  Having An Average Weekend by Shadowy Men On A Shadowy Planet

Lost in all the NL East playoff teams the last couple of seasons has been Baltimore's rise to .500 after Seasons 35-39 in the wilderness.

Can they take the next step?  Maybe (but it looks like they're not planning to)...here's what would have to happen:

1.  1B Phillip Kennedy hits a lot closer to Season 40's .902 OPS than Season 41's .684.  .684!  I'd bet big on that happening.

2.  Despite Kennedy's dreadful Season 41, the team still scored 55 more runs than in Season 40 (675, still sub-NL average).  Step up and grab a couple of budget hitters cheap in a free agent class where talent is going begging - they'll still be able to afford an IFA.

3.  Hope that the relatively young, cheap and effective (3.86 ERA - 7th in NL) pitching staff stays effective.  There's always a hope element somewhere.

Would that get them to 90 wins?  Everything would have to go perfectly, and it rarely does.  They might save their big push for a couple of seasons, when several low-minors prospects (Larry Cumpton, Jose Benitez, Brian Tannehill) will be ready or nearly so, and by that time Columbus and Pawtuckett could be showing some cracks.  Then again, there are rumors among insiders that the Crabs are taking a hard look at some of the Type A's that have slipped through to the bargain bin.

***Update March 4***
As rumored, this morning Baltimore added 4 Type A free agents to the roster (IF Bryan Valaika, IF/OF Chi-Chi  Figueroa,  and versatile middle relievers Myron Perez and Matthew Benes), along with defensive catcher Russell Goodwin.  The moves have a much more pitching/defense flavor than I recommended, but I like it.

Prognosis
Season 41's roster, plus a little better pitching and D, with a much better season from Kennedy.  88 Wins.

Proposal To Amend MWR

I've tweaked the mwr proposal a bit to address concerns about someone taking over a truly dreadful situation (many bad contracts with bad players) and also added an option on the penalty.  Here's our mwr as it stands now:

5. "MINIMUM WIN RULE": All owners must win a minimum of 55 games in any one season, and 120 games over any 2 year span. 
5.a "Penalty" Any owner who fails to meet the 55/120 win requirement will be removed from the league prior to roll-over into the next season.


I'm proposing that we amend it to:


5. "MINIMUM WIN RULE": All owners must win a minimum of 55 games in any one season, 120 over 2 seasons, 190 over 3 seasons, and 265 over 4 seasons, starting in Season 43. 
5.a "Penalty" Any owner who fails to meet the mwr will be removed from the league prior to roll-over into the next season, except that, for one instance in any 4-year period, the owner missing the mwr make elect to stay in the league but will forfeit his first-round draft choice the following season.  The forfeiture will be accomplished by placing a worthless minor league prospect (current core ratings should be in the twenties or worse) as the #1 ranked player in their Amateur Draft prospect ranking and are not allowed to offer a contract to this player. Failure to comply with any penalties issued for these violations will result in immediate removal from the league.

FAQ 
1.  When does it start?  Next season - Season 43.

2.  When will anything practically change?  The first season when the number of wins required would actually go up from the current level would be Season 45.  The penalty option would start next season. 

3.   Seems a little hard to keep up with the math... - I made a spreadsheet  that we'll update every season - see the tab up top called "MWR Current Season" which now has just the mwr's for each team this season.

Off-season trades part 2

Dakar's reply to yesterday:


"Actually my main reason for that deal and trying to move a couple more player in that pre arb boat was to move up similar players and create space on the 40 to protect a couple more prospects.  Getting anything useful with 3 years left before R5 was just a bonus."

Now for the trade analysis:


The San Francisco Fog trade Fergie Schmidt to the Helena Hot Heads for Collin Morel

I don’t follow this trade.  Maybe some one will explain it to me.  It’s kind of like the book Red Badge of Courage.  People tell me its good, but I tried to read it and couldn’t finish it.  I guess Helena saves 1.1 million while also getting younger and a little more defensively flexible and San Francisco gets the better bat, but both players are league average at best so I don’t get it.

The Salem Witch Hunters trade Arthur Taylor and Yean Carlos Posada to the Montgomery Scotts for David Seneca and Elrod Parker

As you may have read I love what the Scotts are doing.  They pick up Posada who has a terrific arm (though with limited stamina) on a terrific deal (7.25 mil for 3 seasons).  There are only a few pitchers that are difference makers (maybe 10) and he is one of them.  With his lifetime 2.83 era and 1.10 whip I am drooling.  PLUS they get Taylor who has the defense to play second base and lead off as evidenced by .352 lifetime OBP and 249 steals over the past 4 seasons on 259 attempts. 

Now they did have to pay a pretty penny.  Seneca is only 21, but could play in the ML right now elite speed and base running and decent contact and batting eye.  By the time he is 23 he could be stealing 70 a year on .365 OBP.  I wish his splits were a bit higher, but he is so young that I may still get my wish.  Elrod Parker is a high variance prospect.  I believe he’ll end up as a back-of-the-rotation starter.  My advance scouts believe he will have a massive improvement and top out as a #2 starter.  We will see. 

People who play HBD are often allergic to age and overvalue prospects.  I love the Scotts approach her taking advantage of that.  Taylor and Posada are terrific now.  Maybe Seneca and Parker will get there too, but who knows.  Why not win now.  For the witch hinters it allows them to get out of 15.5 mil of contract this season and next while at the same time picking up 2 sure fire ML’ers.