Which Teams Have The Best Farm Systems

Who currently has the best farm system?

I tried to answer that  question by estimating the "draft capital" of each team.  I looked at the Season 38-41 drafts and IFA signings, and assigned the following values for each slot:

Draft pick 1-5:                                 5
Draft pick 6-10:                              3
Draft pick 11-15:                              1
IFA Bonus >$28MM:                    5
IFA Bonus $18MM-$28MM:       3
IFA Bonus $10MM-$18MM:        1

I adjusted for trades and didn't include any players that have already been promoted to the Majors.

Here are the totals:

	41	41	40	40	39	39	38	38
	Draft	IFA	Draft	IFA	Draft	IFA	Draft	IFA
Kansas City Jayhawks	3	5	5		1	5	1	2	22
New York Lincoln Giants	1		5	3	10			2	21
Montgomery Scotts		5		5	5	3			18
Jacksonville Fake ID’s	5	3				3	3	3	17
San Francisco Fog			3	1	3	5		3	15
Baltimore Crabs		3	6		5				14
Philadelphia Erffdoggs	5		5		3			1	14
Richmond High Rollers				8		2	1		11
Las Vegas Desperados	5		5						10
Scottsdale Cardinals	5		3		1				9
Toledo Walleye	5		3			1			9
Wichita Plainsmen	3		1	5					9
Los Angeles Motley Crue			3		3		1		7
Cincinnati Red Stockings								5	5
Florida Poison Dart Frogs							5		5
Chicago Orphans	3		1						4
Hartford Monarchs	1		3						4
New Orleans Voodoo		1		3					4
Pittsburgh Dream Eaters	3		1						4
San Juan Padres	1				3				4
Salem Witch Hunters	3								3
Boston Beer Bellies		1				1			2
Colorado House of Horrors	1				1				2
Columbus Buckeyes		1		1					2
Oakland Shillelagh			1				1		2
Oklahoma City Apocalypse		1			1				2
Tacoma Merchants						1		1	2
Honolulu Luau Dawgs	1								1
Pawtucket Paladins						1			1
Milwaukee Chedda									0
Montreal Shamrocks									0
Texas Stars									0

Obviously, this is a rough, mechanistic sorting with no "eyeball" evaluations included, so there will be some inaccuracies (you don't have to have a high ADV to see that Jacksonville's Lorenzo Rosario and Tony Arias, for example, are more like 5's than the 3's they got on the estimate by being relative IFA bargains).

Still, it should be a pretty good indicator of which teams will be moving up the standings over the next couple of seasons.

Ms. January

Updates on the OKC and Jacksonville posts

The Milwaukee Chedda send Benito Feliz, Tony Bolling, and Houston Bennett to the Oklahoma City Apocalypse for Jecksson Bailey, Emil Ontiveros, and 3 million. 



This trade is why you always ask.  It makes sense for both sides, but it’s a killing for the Chedda.  They get a useful reliever, a starter level corner OF and all it cost them was a middle of the bullpen guy with 0 service time.  Feliz is fringe ML quality as a 5^th OF, and Bennett has no place on a ML roster.  Plus OKC even picked up the cash this year. 

Still the logic for OKC is clear too.  They’ll make the MWR this season with or without Bailey and Ontiveros.  They get a usable, young relief pitcher and save the million they would have spent on declining Jecksson’s option next season.  They literally gave up nothing that mattered to them and got a small something that will.  Congrats to the Chedda for seeing the difference in Bailey and Ontiveros’ value to the two teams.



The San Juan Padres send Dave Thompson to the Oklahoma City Apocalypse for Omar Elcano

This trade makes sense for both sides.  OKC is time line is a few seasons away so they send Elcano, a ML ready prospect, for a guy 2-3 seasons away.  While the Padres are a middling team (35-39), the NL south is so bad that they lead the division.  In Elcano they add 3B with above average defense and an average bat.  He’ll have a little trouble getting on base, but he should be able to produce 20 HR’s and 10 SB’s without striking out too much.  Further, his excellent makeup means that bat may still improve (my scouts think he will improve from plus contact to elite contact).  The same is true for his glove which could improve to elite defensive 3B.  Looking at San Juan’s roster they may play Elcano at SS.  I actually really like this as Elcano is less of a disaster at SS than Almonte and Almonte slides over to 3B where he is a plus defender.  Almonte is a much better defender than Placido Gomez who is there now, Elcano is better at SS than Almonte and Elcano’s bat is better than Gomez.  It’s a win all the way around.

Dave Thomson is a recent mid 1^st round pick.  He’ll have the range to play CF or 2B, though he’ll be more valuable at 2B than CF (right handed, glove that is a little shaky).  At the plate he should eat up lefties and be acceptable against righties.  If I am guessing (always hard to do with a 19-year old) I would say ML average starting 2B. 

In a vacuum I think I’d rather have Elcano, but its pretty darn close and has more to do with my bias towards the sure thing of a guy who has already developed.  In context, I really like this deal for both sides.



The Wichita Plainsmen send Sean Cameron to the Jacksonville Fake ID’s Tony Votto, Esteban Alvarez, and Edge Baker



If you hear cursing and gnashing of teeth coming from Alaska it will be over this trade.  The Fake ID’s pickup Cameron, who has excellent contact, power, and speed, but is really only usable against right handers.  The good news is that about 70% of pitchers are right handed, but it’s a fair haul to give for a guy who can never be a 600 at bat center piece.  Still, since the Fake ID’s believe they are in the discussion of World Series contenders the logic of the deal is there.

The Plainsman continue their rebuild by picking up a very nice piece in Votto.  Right now, he has the arm to be a back of the bullpen guy and should develop into a Setup A guy.  Not closer good, but that next level down.  Baker is a lottery ticket.  He’s very young, but also very far away from being ML quality.  I think he develops into a back of the bullpen ML quality guy.  ML quality, but nothing special.  Alvarez was a nice IFA bargain for the Fake ID’s ($600,000), but projects to be ML backup with excellent pinch running skills.  Not a difference maker, but good organizational depth for the Plainsman. 



This deal make sense for both sides.  Used correctly Cameron cam provide 850-900 OPS with speed to a team that has the depth to coverup his weaknesses.  The Plainsman get an excellent relief prospect and two other guys who will make a ML roster for a guy that if there was no deal they probably would have cut next season anyway.



The Milwaukee Chedda send Kes Bittle to the Jacksonville Fake ID’s for Gabby Beckett and 2.1 million.

For the second time in this post the Chedda benefit from being the right team at the right time.  Having traded away Votto, picking up Bittle softens the blow for the Fake ID’s system.  In a vacuum I’d rather have Votto, but its close enough.  With the acquisition of Cameron Beckett’s at bats were going to dry up.  Beckett is a better defensive replacement but isn’t nearly the hitter.  For the Fake ID’s Cameron just, in theory, is a better fit for their needs (being 11^th in runs scored for example). 

The Chedda once again pickup a credible ML starter with a plus glove for LF, gets Jackson to pay for him, and only has to give up a relief pitcher that was 2 seasons from helping them.  This is a terrific deal for both sides, but especially terrific for the Chedda.

Week 5 Power Rankings

	rank team roster wins expected score 1 Jacksonville 1 1 3 1.45 Future HoF'er Dwight Herzog has the highest OPS of his career 2 Pawtucket 2 3 4 2.925 Future HoF'er Yean Carlos Gonzalez is could hit his 650th home run this season 3 Columbus 4 4 1 3.325 J.P. Rapp is 9-3 2.73.  Just terrific. 4 Milwaukee 5 6 2 4.8 55 + plays leads the league 5 Oakland 14 1 8 6.475 Freddie Martin leads the AL in saves (18) 6 Pittsburgh 16 4 5 7.825 Julio Cano is 13-1 2.09.  2nd Cy Young? 7 Honolulu 8 8 9 8.225 NL West leaders 8 Montreal 3 13 11 9.55 On a 6 game win streak at this writing 9 Tacoma 7 13 7 9.85 Glenn Coste leads the NL in saves (21) 10 Colorado 10 10 14 10.9 Leads the AL in runs 11 Boston 11 8 19 11.375 Would be WC #1 if the playoff started today 12 San Francisco 13 13 6 11.425 Leads the NL in team ERA 3.47 13 Richmond 22 6 13 12.375 Destin Williamson leads the AL with 73 RBI's 14 Los Angeles 24 10 12 14.65 Would be a playoff team if it ended today 15 San Juan 6 19 17 14.65 Einar Nunez leads the NL in OPS 16 Las Vegas 25 16 10 17.35 Oldest team in the AL 17 Salem 15 19 20 18.025 Arthur Taylor is 28/28 on stolen bases. 18 Texas 12 19 24 18.025 Tied for first despite being 34-38 19 Florida 9 24 18 18.15 Ezdra Rodriguez has more stolen bases than 10 teams. 20 Montgomery 28 16 16 19.6 Only 2 games out of the playoffs despite a 29 mil salary 21 Cincinnati 30 10 26 19.6 Dennis Boswell has 27 doubles already. 22 Baltimore 21 22 15 20.125 Has slipped recently 23 Kansas City 26 26 22 20.35 Team .991 fielding percentage leads the league 24 Hartford 17 22 23 20.725 Yasiel Cayones leads the AL with 27 HR's 25 Chicago 19 24 21 21.825 6 + plays against 36 - plays 26 Philadelphia 29 24 24 25.5 Worst last week, but all MiL teams have winning records 27 Scottsdale 18 29 32 26.375 Ronald Hoover is 18/18 saving the game. 28 Toledo 23 27 30 26.475 Last in the AL in runs 29 New York 20 32 29 27.725 Statistically the least lucky team. 30 Oklahoma City 31 27 28 28.425 Update on their rebuild coming 31 Wichita 32 29 27 29.45 Last in the NL in runs 32 New Orleans 26 30 31 29.8 Chris Osborne leads the AL in strikeouts

First-Round Draft Review Bonus: Best of the Supplementals

Little bonus here.  Took a quick look through the supplemental round and these guys jumped out as at least having a chance at ML careers.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

#34 to Toledo -  Chi-Chi Velez, SR: mid-80's control, splits in the 70 neighborhood and a devastating 4-seamer mean Toledo gets an actual decent reliever at 34.  His stamina isn't going to be what my scouts touted...maybe only 20.

#36 to Las Vegas - Marvin Bergman, SS: My scouts saw future Range =100 and future Glove = 100.

#46 to Honolulu - Lonny Rodriguez, 3B:  not a ML SS but a very good 3B/2B with some contact skills and power

#50 to Hartford - Todd Pfisterer, OF:  With speed/base-running of up to 100/74, he could be a pinch-runner in the NL, especially if his range gets above 80.

#52 to OKC - Stan Treadway,C:  Premium defensive catcher with some pop and a good eye.

#58 to Texas - Pat Purcell, C:  ML hitter, especially vs. righties.  Will his pitch-calling improve enough?

First-Round Draft Review, Picks 21-33

OK, here are picks 21-33.  Most of the projections here are mine, with 14/14 scouting.  Where I note another author or helper, the projections mentioned could be from higher or lower levels. Enjoy.


#21 to Los Angeles - Adam Dale, 3B:  My projections (14) showed Grade A 3B defense and a good enough hitter to play everyday at the ML level; the modified view after seeing currents is more of a free-swinger but still good-to-really good-3B D.  His speed/base-running skills certainly won't hurt.  It would be a real bonus if his range reached 80-82 so he could be a full-service 3B/2B/CF utility man, but I don't think he'll quite get there.  Nice player at 20.  GRADE:  ground-ball single.

#22 to Cincinnati -Daniel Barkley, SP: My guess is this guy would've gone a bit sooner if he wasn't one of those "Probably won't sign guys", as he projects to be as good as a #3 starter, likely more a 4 or 5, and a 4-season LR at the worst.  Projections suggest solid ML-level control and vL, a 60-ish vR, but 4A to AAA pitches.  An interesting note: my scouts projected a GB/flyball of 100.  Does that mean no one ever hits a flyball?  As he apparently intends to return to college, it might be worth making a note of for 2-3 seasons down the road.  GRADE:  Gapper For A Double If He Signs, Type D Next Year If He Doesn't

#23 to Philadelphia -  Solly Burch, SP:  I had this guy at #10 on my board, seeing splits projects of high 70's, but I had a real concern with those 3,4 and 5 pitch ratings.  Much like Querecuto, I was disappointed with his currents, as I'd like to see HS P's start with splits at least in the mid 50's.  And, those last 3 pitches look pretty bad indeed.  On the plus side, he is a high-schooler with very good makeup (starting at 85), so with good coaching we can expect impressive ratings improvements.  GRADE: Home Run...even with my reservations about him, to pick up a competent ML starter at #23 in any draft is a pretty big accomplishment.  In this one, let's just say that he's better than quite a few of the players selected before he was.

#24 to Florida - Mark Post, RP  (report by top):  Mark Post projects as an effective left-handed setup man with plus control and effectiveness against left handers (though no elite skills) and no real weaknesses except velocity. His stamina/durability should support 70-80 innings. His currents are a little worrying, but my advanced scouts see him as basically the same pitcher as my draft scouts do so I am sure he’ll get reasonably close to his projections. At #23 he’s a sure fire ML’er which is just fine at this point of the draft.  GRADE: Groundball Down The RF Line For A Sliding Double.

#25 to Boston - Wiki Quintanilla, RP:  Poster boy of this class of the "Pitches vs Splits" Debate.  My scouts see a future with splits in the 50's but pitches of 96 and 74.  That probably translates to a ceiling at AAA or maybe a 4A stint as a cheap arm for a rebuilding team.  There's some chance that his vR could develop more, as it's starting at 43.  Can't give a terrible grade for a 4A player at this point...GRADE: Sacrifice Bunt.

#26 to Hartford - Will Newman, CF (report by top): Will Newman projects to be an aspirational CF. If he hits defensive projections he’ll be an effective ML’er. If not, he’ll be a rangy LF’er. At bat he should be able to give you a .350-.370 OBP. However, with only so-so contact, power, and baserunning his OBP will have to be his calling card. Again, if he can play CF effectively that is fine. However, his low makeup makes me worry. At LF, that is a substandard bat. His floor is a AAAA player. At pick #26 Hartford wasn’t likely to get an all-star and they did not get one. GRADE: getting a 4A player this late isn't too bad but isn't worth a whole lot.  Sacrifice Fly.


#27 to Columbus - Leslie Wyatt, SS:  Scouted as a "super-defender", he's also going to do a little damage at the plate - he might get as high as 60 power and 86 or so eye.  The biggest knock on his bat is chronic trouble with righty pitching, but hey, we're talking about the 27th pick.  His range and arm strength might touch low 90's; glove and accuracy won't reach those levels but should still be in SS territory.  All-in-all, I really think Columbus hit the jackpot here...a really good all-round SS at pick #27...GRADE: Home Run.

# 28 to Pawtuckett - Hansel Lewis, SP: Intriguing stuff with those two sizzling pitches and the obvious downside of a DUR that will top out in the 6-8 range.  I think that makes him at best a 1-inning reliever...not room for too many of those on 11 or 12-man ML staffs.  I'm really straining here, but maybe there's a role with a playoff team where you keep him in AAA forever and only bring him up for the playoffs...he could probably start one game each playoff series.  He hasn't signed yet so I'm grading purely off projections, but if he falls the usual bit short of projections he'll still be a ML pitcher.  GRADE:  Double Off The Wall.

#29 to Oakland - Weldon Bailey, SS:  Decent bat for a defensively-oriented IF, especially against lefties, with pretty fair contact and on-base skills.  If he could make it to 84/84/84/84 on the defensive ratings, he'd be pretty damn valuable as either a starting SS or a 4-position super-utility man (bonus points for switch-hitting and bunting ability), but he's just not going to get there.  Still, he can fill a role as a 3B/2B/RF utility and have a ML career.  GRADE:  "Groundball With Eyes Into Short Left".

#30 to Texas - Shane Hegan, RF:  Definitely will have a RF's glove and arm but sadly not the bat - hitting splits are going to top out in the high 30's or maybe 40.  So, the ceiling for him is probably AAA.  That's not a terrible miss, but there are still a few players available who will have some kind of ML role.  GRADE:  Well-Hit Flyout To CF.

#31 to Montgomery - Elrod Parkers, SP/LR (no projections, only current ratings):  At best, he's probably going to have control and splits in the low 60's; he could have a pair of ML pitches, though, so the optimistic case is he has a few seasons as a LRB or 4 guy that helps a rebuilder keep the payroll down.  If you expect a more limited development path, he's a career AAA pitcher.  GRADE: Line Drive Right At the 3B.

#32 to Montreal - Lloyd Petterson, 2B: My scouts (14) see a Glove of 89 and an Eye of 86 in his long-term future, giving hope for some kind of ML career. His range and arm accuracy, at best, will even fall short of 3B caliber, and the rest of his hitting ratings don't measure up to COF or 1B standards.  GRADE: Squibbing Infield Hit, because if everything goes right, he might have a couple of turns in the sun as a backup somewhere.

#33 to Tacoma -  Sam Michalak, 2B:  Better shot at the Majors than Petterson, because his defense will certainly be 2B caliber, and his range - already at 75 - could reach the 80's or even 90.  Like Petterson, his best offensive strategy will be to crouch, crowd the plate and hope for a walk, as he will have little power and pedestrian splits.  Also like Petterson, the Majors are not a sure thing...it will depend a lot on MiL playing time and coaching, and the situation of Tacoma's ML roster in 4 seasons or so.  GRADE: Broken-Bat Flare Into CF For A Single

First-Round Draft Review, Picks 11-20

OK, here are your 2nd 10 draftees.  Most of the projections here are mine, with 14/14 scouting.  Where I note another author or helper, the projections mentioned could be from higher or lower levels. Enjoy.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------


#11 to New York - Julio Rivera, RP:  Projections Report by top:  Julio Rivera is a high innings RP. He’ll make a solid ML pitcher with plus control and plus vs. R. Further, he has an elite first pitch and ability to keep the ball in park. What will stop him from being the next Sam Stock or Bralin Kohn is his only acceptable 2nd pitch and vs. L. Also, while he projects to have a slightly poorer stamina/durability profile to those two pitchers.  Currents:  OK, his splits are starting in the 40's, so could get into the upper 60's with pitches in the 70's...that would be pretty good ML Pitcher.  GRADE:  Ground-Rule Double.

#12 to Colorado - Alan Martin, SS (report by top):  Alan Martin is listed at SS, but will have to play 3B. The high durability/high health/high makeup sure thing may have trouble finding at bats in the ML. He’ll steal 30 bases with efficiency and will hold his own against lefties. He also has a plus (but not special) batting eye. However, he his lack of contact, power, an effectiveness against righties will probably limit him to a 250/340/360 ish line (again, with speed plus speed and base running). I don’t dislike Martain, but I’d have like him better at 25-35.  GRADE:  now that we're in the mid-range of the first round, I ask, "Should he have gone earlier (AKA "Are there worse players ahead of him?")" and "Are there better players behind him?"  To the first, "No, there are not worse players ahead of him."  To the second, "Yes, at least Lira, Nathan, Jenkins and Burch are better."  Infield Popup.

#13 to Honolulu - Benny Lira, RP:  My 14 scouting projected decent control, superior splits, and 2 good pitches followed by one pretty bad one, and even though he's a college guy and won't develop as much as the kids do, his currents say he cold get in the ballpark of his projections.  Optimistically, he gets to CON/vL/vR of 77/82/80 and P1-P3 of 83/74/39.  I had Lira and #10 Huff at nos 5 and 4 on my board, figuring at least one wold make it to me at 17.  RP's just aren't undervalued the way they used to be (see the second trade down on this Trade History page).  GRADE:  Home Run.



#14 to Hartford - Haywood Evans, SP:  My projections (14) suggested a high pitch-count starter with AAA splits but 2 lights-out pitches and 3 more pretty good ones...maybe good enough pitches to overcome limited splits.  Unfortunately  his currents confirm the low splits but also suggest more modest pitch ratings than my scouts did.  Personally I've been wanting to experiment with pitchers who had kind of mediocre splits but good pitches, but Evans doens't really fit the profile.  This could be our first draftee who doesn't make  the Majors.  GRADE:  Foul Tip Caught By the Catcher.

#15 to San Juan -  Dave Nathan, 2B:  One of the the top power hitters of this class (his current power of 76 is better than that of #2 Martin), at least the part that my scouts saw.  Definitely 40-50 HR power...maybe more in the right park...but his other hitting ratings are lacking.  In San Juan he'll no doubt have some huge seasons, but he might have a few of those .225/31 HR seasons that make you wish you'd have taken that good RP in his spot. I don't think his glove will be good enough for 2B, and I don't think the arm strength will be enough for the outfield.  But if he's a .260 hitter with 45 HR's and a plus defender at 1B, that's not bad at all for #15.  DUR is also a concern.  GRADE: Home run...he's better than at least the 3 taken right before him.

#16 to Baltimore - Brian Tannehill, SP:  jake72 says "My draft pick Tannehill is a LH SP with good/great pitches but middling splits and control. Projects as a #4 or #5," while top says he's a #3 starter.  I don't see it.  From his currents it looks like his splits will top out in the 50's, P1 will be in the 70's, P2 maybe reaches 70, and P3 and P4 become real stinkers.  This draft is running out of talent fast.  GRADE:  Lazy Can O' Corn To RF.

#17 to OK City - Billy Keller, SS:  Almost can't count the ways I screwed this up.  First, I originally had Solly Burch #4 on my board.  With all the sorting and moving I did I somehow moved him down to about #11 and forgot to move him back to 4 (I didn't think I'd get him at 17 but it turns out I would have).  I had really hoped to get Huff or Lira at 17 but Burch would've been good too.  Then I moved up a handful of defensive guys (Keller, Wyatt, Bergman and Treadway, hoping to get 2 of them at 52 and 62.  But when I moved them up I forgot to write down what their original positions were and put Keller ahead of the other 2 SS's and Treadway (the 3 SS's all had similar overalls in my projections).  I should have ranked them something like Wyatt, Bergman, Treadway and Keller (another thing I overlooked was Keller's putrid 26 makeup).  If I had paid attention to some basic details I would've had Burch at 17 and Treadway at 52 at worst (much better than Keller and Treadway), and at best would've added Keller at 62.  GRADE:  Embarrassing, Flailing Whiff...Strike 3 On A Slider In the Dirt.

#18 to Milwaukee - Pat Glaus, 2B:  (no projections, only basing the report on currents) the hope here is that his range and glove improve to maybe 80/79...if so he could have a 4-year ML career as a defensive replacement 2B/backup CF.  He's not going to hit for much power, but if he gets max development in the other hitting ratings he might hit enough to stick with somebody through his first 2 arb seasons.  The outlook would improve if he was a savvy base-runner but that's not the case.  GRADE:  Nothing special but not a bad player to pick up this late in Round 1.  Solid Single.

#19 to New Orleans - Socks Jenkins, SP:  Just maybe the dark horse pick of the first round.  I only have currents, but his are better than those of the more-hyped Burch (by a lot in most cases) in control, both splits and pitches 2-5.  Eventual CON/vL/vR of 84/70/72 and P1-P5 of 80/70/55/55/30 seems at least plausible...all depends on the "true" projections if there are such things.  He tends to miss high so that's going to produce some taters but will also have pretty good K totals.  This is a nice find for this  spot in the draft.  GRADE: Tape-Measure HR.

#20 to Richmond - Yank Ramsey, 2B:  Another potential sleeper with 35-40 HR power,  a pretty keen batting eye, and just good enough contact.  At this point it looks like righties are always going to give him trouble, but I've seen worse hitters than him make it as vL platooners.  It helps that he'll be an above-average defender at either LF or 1B.  GRADE:  Standup Double.