It was a battle all S47 with Austin holding on to win by 3 games. The 'clypse had the edge last year, but Houston is the younger, up-and-coming team, Jackson has made moves to get back into contention and the Padres always compete well. Should be another good race.
The Lineup: It's a power-based offense that led the NL in HR's (245) and Slugging % (.440, tied with Austin) last year. Big-time power potential at 1B (Justin Parris), 3B (Danry Montero), CF (Shane Williams) and LF (J.J. Lundquist)...any of these guys could go for 40+, although Montero was tops last year with just 38. Honestly, in a good year this team can approach 300 bombs. RF Willin Cedeno and 2B Fred Buckel are the "contact" guys, although they bring power as well (Buckel mashed 33 2 seasons ago and Cedeno has 55 bombs in 2 seasons). They play defense at SS and C, although new backstop Alex Lopez will draw walks. If there's a knock on this offense, it's the on-base ability (.322 tied for 6th in the NL). That's still pretty good, though. I expect this team to hit more HR's and score more runs this year.
The Staff: Well, they were #2 in the NL last year and added Julio Cano, Quinn Lewis and Alex Vargas. Boom! Cano becomes the #1 with #2 Diego Alomar (16-11, 3.44 in 266 IP), #3 Corban Pierzynski (15-9, 3.23 in 242 IP), and #4 Don Tartamella (12-7, 3.68 in 193 IP). Their most effective RP's last year - Pedro Flores, Rodney Roberts, and Toby Sosa, are all very tough but low-innings guys. Lewis (especially) and Vargas give them 2 more quality arms to cover middle innings, take 2-inning save situations, etc. With all the innings their 1-4 starters can throw, they really have the almost unheard-of luxury of too much pitching talent.
The Staff: Well, they were #2 in the NL last year and added Julio Cano, Quinn Lewis and Alex Vargas. Boom! Cano becomes the #1 with #2 Diego Alomar (16-11, 3.44 in 266 IP), #3 Corban Pierzynski (15-9, 3.23 in 242 IP), and #4 Don Tartamella (12-7, 3.68 in 193 IP). Their most effective RP's last year - Pedro Flores, Rodney Roberts, and Toby Sosa, are all very tough but low-innings guys. Lewis (especially) and Vargas give them 2 more quality arms to cover middle innings, take 2-inning save situations, etc. With all the innings their 1-4 starters can throw, they really have the almost unheard-of luxury of too much pitching talent.
The Leather: Great defense that produced 98 good plays and only 10 bad plays last year. It starts with SS Kyle Falk, who won his 2nd consecutive Gold Glove, and is strengthened up the middle with 2B and CF Williams. Montero at 3B and Lundquist in LF (also won the Gold Glove in S47) are also Grade A defenders.
The addition of (especially) Cano, Lewis and Vargas were really big. Given their power and defense, when you add that much pitching...ooohh I hate to say it but I think they're better than Austin.
The Lineup: The offense is pretty much the Dave Nathan (.254/37/88) show and not much else, although 2nd-year 1B Leyson Rodriguez (.280/10/37 in 289 AB's) will do some damage in his first full year. Al Guzman is still a pretty good stick for a 2B and could improve on last year's .760 OPS. SS, 3B and CF are more or less defense-only positions. In an optimistic scenario, rookie C Cabrera gives them an .800 OPS and RF Maier goes off for 37 HR's. Getting 450 AB's from CF Neil McGehee would be a huge plus. As we'll see below, there's a strategic emphasis on defense in a hitter's park here, so the upside on run production is limited. 700 tops?
The Staff: 2nd-year starter Neil Brooks showed some skill (5-3, 3.59 ERA in 95 innings)...they'll need him to step up to replace Jimmy Miller. Juarez remains the top dog and should return to his customary 3-something ERA after a tough year of 4.64. At 3-4-5 we have Diaz, Snell and Lemon and I think they're all underrated - they'll all turn in ERA's of right around 4 in a punishing ballpark. Now we come to the bullpen. Uh-oh. True, Shea can give you a good year, but last season's 2.40 ERA was a fluke. In his 11 ML seasons, his ERA has been over 4 eight times and under 3 once. Closer Bonilla is decent, but the rest of the pen...uuhhh, Fredo.
The Leather: Where the Pads shine the brightest (.986 fiedling %, 85 + plays). Omar Elcano is really a unique player. His A+ glove makes him usable at any of the 4 demanding positions (SS, 2B, 3B, CF), although he's best at 3B (as his GG while only playing 694 innings there attests). Guzman is money at 2B and slugger Nathan contributed 14 + plays in LF. IF Presley becomes the fulltime SS he'll probably turn in 20 + plays.
I find San Juan to be an interesting team. Their defense probably makes their pitchers better, and as a result it just seems like they're a "tough" team. The lineup is super-limited though, and they're a little unlucky to be in the same division as the loaded Houston and Austin clubs. But don't be surprised if they get past the aging Moonshiners.
The Lineup: Lou Crawford will bring some much-needed oomph. He'll undoubtedly be the cleanup hitter and focal point. Pep Walsh was still pretty good at 35 (.835) OPS; I think management would be thrilled if he got close to that again. Dennis Boswell can still do the job as leadoff hitter - he tore up Spring Training (1.468 OPS). From there it gets dicey. Which Audy Treanor will we see? S46's .888 OPS or S47's .603? 2B Espinosa is a decent fielder but could be the least powerful everyday player in Hobbs. 3B Castillo has a career OPS of .738, C Charleston .791. I think the CF story is unwritten at the moment. Of course I love the Crawford signing - I hope he's the MVP and they get back into contention. But the reality is they're still only going to score about 710 runs tops.
The Staff: I'm more optimistic about the pitching, as it has been the strength of the team during its long Division Title streak and was #1 in ERA as recently as S46. They bit the bullet and re-signed 36-yo Johnny Gardner to a 4-year deal, which keeps their Manto-Matos-Gardner triumvirate together for at least one more season. Matos was a 5.54-ERA dumpster fire last year after 11 straight seasons with ERA's in the 2's and 3's. Comeback Player of the Year right there. Fabio Reitz is a good #4 but I am not optimistic about 2nd-year SP Yeico Mota (It would've been nice to be able to keep Yasmani Costilla). The bullpen has a bunch of up-and-down guys including their 2 best, Lui and Cisnero. To have any chance of getting back into the NL South fight they have to have good seasons from both those guys.
The Leather: They've pretty much abandoned defense to try to rebuild a viable attack. Crawford is not a shortstop, as will soon be evident. They don't have a CF on the roster yet - Rule V'er Poseidon Adams is not the answer there. Still plenty of FA SS's and CF's waiting by the phone.
The Lineup: topped the NL with 857 runs, based mostly on contact (.269 BA - 1st) and patience (583 walks - 2nd). They weren't bad in the power department - their 219 HR's were 6th - but that's not the calling card. RF David Seneca is the initiator - if his .414 OBP, 62 extra base-hits and 46 SB had only been in the NL and not compiled in both leagues - he might have made the MVP ballot. C Gerald Lim is the bopper - he joins Las Vegas RF Willie Taylor and Ottawa CF Lorenzo Rosario with active 6-season streaks of 40+ HR's. 2B Moreno, 3B Walsh, new CF Campos, LF Epstein and 1B Lynn are all some version of the moderate power/good on-base prototype. They'll miss Phil Kim's .325/31 HR's but it came at a high cost (20 errors and bad plays in RF). They'll probably be in the ballpark of 857 runs again.
The Staff: The rotation sees aces Osborne and Jodie followed by some combination of Benavente, Alcantara, Hobbes, Harris and Taveras. Salvador Brooks was a disaster as the primary middle reliever, so management stepped up to re-acquire Bralin Kohn. With Kohn now locking down the middle innings and Arias in the 8th and Huff in the 9th, they're hoping for a big improvement on 27 blown saves (is that a record?) and 25 1-run losses.
The Leather: Here's where they've made the biggest improvements. Trading for Vic Campos turns CF from bad (Epstein) to great, turns LF from OK (Seneca) to great (Epstein), and turns RF from horrific (Kim) to pretty good (Seneca). Walsh is not quite a Gold Glover at 3B but he's very good, and the versatile Rando Chavez gives them excellent late inning defense at 2B, 3B or CF. Defensive SS Billy Keller is likely to land the 25th roster spot.
How much difference can outfield defense make? I guess we'll see. Kohn addresses last year's other big weakness for probably a season. For all the talent, there's still a sense of plugging holes rather than getting better by leaps and bounds (like Houston).
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