We kick off this year's previews with Hobbs' toughest division and home of the new Champ Jayhawks. While the 'hawks led all year, the dogfight for 2nd eventually rewarded Milwaukee with a Wild Card berth. Can S48 live up to S47's drama?
The Lineup: Couple of pretty good moves to try to boost last year's 742 runs. The biggest was a 3-year FA deal for former OAK 1B Domingo Marmol. He was good for 28-30 HR every year for the A's and will like the smaller dimensions of Olympic Stadium. They also added Benny Cordova, I'm guessing as an all-round 1B/DH/COF backup. He should be better than the departed Eddie Washington although Eddie had a pretty good year (.808 OPS). Heath Dickerson shouldn't suffer any falloff until his age 36 season next year. They're solid at 3B and LF with Javier and Cave. They go with stronger defense at C, 2B and CF, which leaves them a tad short on production - they'll depend on rookie RF Patrick Axelrod (#16 overall in S44) - or maybe an Axelrod/Cordova platoon - to give them one ore solid run producer. I think their runs will be up some - maybe 765.
The Staff: They made 3 big additions to the staff this offseason to try to improve on last year's 4.25 ERA. The first was a FA deal for SP Pep Kawakami, who was a consistent 170-inning, 4.00 ERA guy in his TOR career. Montreal's park is a bit more hitter-friendly than Toronto's, so I'd expect Pep's numbers to be a little higher. They've also brought up 2 promising rookies, SP Lester Ordonez ($5MM IFA S44) and RP Robert Gibson, S43's #19 pick. With 12 pitchers on the relief-heavy staff, we might see a 4-man rotation of Kawakami, Ordonez, Ken Stevens and Clarence Mays. So RP's Benny Lira, Deven Wakeland, Gibson and Tiny James will get plenty of work. It's hard to predict pitching...I think they'll be a little better but if 1 or 2 of their starters has a terrible year they could be worse.
The Leather: It's a very sure-handed bunch (.990 fielding %) who also make a lot of good plays (88) and very few poor plays (12). They pretty much go defense-only at SS, 2B and CF...that helps the pitching staff quite a bit and (theoretically) produces more 1-run wins. Maybe that explains coach34's tendency to beat both expected wins and the predictions of forecasters.
The Lineup: They make contact, they hit for power, they get on base...they do everything except steal bases very well. Their best player, Joaquin Merced, hit 41 HR's last year and was probably the 4th-best hitter behind on-base experts Guerrier (.409) and Osuna (.417), and rookie sensation Joshua Purcey. 3B Higashioka is their 2nd-best power source and LF Estrada has established himself as a reliable .830 OPS hitter. CF Panik and SS Wilhelm both contribute double-digit HR's. Both of last year's 1B, Dillon Mateo and Yoslan Goya, have moved on and will be replaced by longtime Oakland A Darren Haren. Haren had (by far) his worst season as a major-leaguer (at age 29...curious) and will bounce back to around a .775 OPS. I think they'll score more runs this year...look for Merced to return to something more like his S45 form.
The Staff: Well, they led the AL in ERA by a healthy margin and Nicky Glaus won the CY. Glaus is a good pitcher, and the team's defense helps a lot, but I'm not betting on another year like S47 for him. On the other hand, I'd bet Castillo will be better. Santo Ramirez enticed us with a 2.77 ERA in 52 innings as a rookie. They have an over-abundance of talented bullpen arms with Cepeda, Mendoza, Brown and Merced. I can't explain James Haney. He has 3 pretty good seasons in Boston, then 1 bad one. OK, it's a tough park on pitchers. But KC is neutral and Haney's been terrible. But you look at his ratings and figure he's in the rotation, at least to start the season.
The Leather: Very good defense getting better. Haren in RF is a GG contender, as is Merced at 1B. Think 100+ good plays...maybe that will be enough to get Haney on track.
The Lineup: The offense (8th-ranked last year) revolves around slugging 2B Pablo Guerrero, 1B Tanyon Joyner and former MVP CF Chico Astacio. Guerrero is still a top power threat, but Joyner and Astacio are in their age 34 seasons and showing the first signs of age (power and range have fallen off the last few seasons). LF Montanez is probably their best table-setter - he's been hitting second behind Astacio in Spring games. RF Ted Locke showed some promise with 23 HR's as a rookie. They've got some pop with their 2 C's Nen and Suppan; don't know whether they plan to platoon those 2 or use one at DH. They don't expect much offense from SS and 3B.
The Staff: Pitching was a real strength last year and they added to it with the Al Montgomery and Yasmani Costilla signings. The rotation is probably going to be Stan Story, Montgomery, Costilla, Justin Dunham (? got 32 starts last year), and Socks Jenkins, although 3 or 4 more could factor in. They only have 2 non-SP/LR's on the staff - closer Mateo Andrus and MR Bo Burrell, who can throw more innings than most of the starters if they need him to. Lots of innings here, fatigue should never be a factor. It's an unusual pitching setup with so many SP's, but I like it because if 1 or 2 guys start badly (or even continue badly), you can just plug in somebody else without getting squeezed on innings.
The Leather: Incredible team defense last year with a .988 fielding % and 108/9 +/- plays. SS P.T. Ordaz (20 + plays) is the anchor, but he gets plenty of help from LF Montanez (19+), 2B Guerrero (17+), 3B Valentin (16+) and 1B Joyner (13+). No question the defense knocks a few points off that team ERA.
The Lineup: Homers, Homers, Homers. That's been the plan on offense the last few years, resulting in 290+ long-balls every year since Season 45. 43 each last year for 1B Hughes and 2B Shea, 35 for RF Martin, 4 more with 23+. But they hit 295 jacks in both S46 and S47, but scored 82 fewer runs in S47, thanks mostly to a drop in OBP from .328 (11th) to .314 (15th). The trade of C Walter Nen for SP Chad Haynes just might indicate a little change in philosophy. While Haynes was a good defensive C, he was their best hitter there and more to the point, clearly their best power-hitting C. Given their other moves in the pitching arena, we could be seeing a renewed emphasis on pithing from 'doggs management. Certainly they'll be dependent on power hitting for this season, but we'll see if this year's pitching moves signal a change.
The Staff: Kind of a new look. Nash Hobbes left in FA and Tomas Alcantara went to Austin in a late-season trade. The likely rotation appears to be Gutierrez, Schulte, Jenkins, Liz and Burch or Mann, with rookie Ed Farquhar probably getting a shot at some point. The relievers are all 1-2 inning guys, including 2 of the best ever, closer Yordano Valdes and Aurelio Duran, still going strong at 40.
The Leather: The defense is in the middle of the AL pack. SS Escobar isn't a Gold Glover but makes a lot of great arm plays and commits an acceptable number of errors given his offensive output. 3B Pujols makes a few too many errors but compensates with good plays. 2B is the critical position where they're giving up a lot, but Shea's been a 40-HR player for the last 4 seasons. CF Cespedes - like a lot of the position players - is adequate on defense given his contributions at the plate.
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