Jacksonville Fake ID's
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The Lineup: Suddenly, it's a whole new and rebuilding Fake ID's, as a tour of the lineup and where each player came from demonstrates: Catcher, Rusney Lira , traded from New York; 1B, Wiki Figueroa, traded from Houston; 2B, Arthur Taylor, FA from Jackson; 3B, Emmanuel Fernandez, traded from Austin; SS, Brook Pagnozzi, holdover; LF, Chang-Yong Uchida, traded from Houston; CF, Raimel Arrubarrena, traded from New York, RF, Asdrubel Diaz, traded from Houston. Mostly guys who were backups on good teams (Houston, New York, Austin) but can hold their own, help make the mwr and do it without getting paid a lot. Figueroa is the one guy who could have a longer future in JAX, and it's not beyond imagination that he's on the ROY ballot at year-end.
The Staff: Same story with pitchers only it involves more budget free agents. top seems to be employing the "pitches are just as important as splits but a lot cheaper" theory of pitcher selection. He's probably right about that but I fear he may overdone it: Bengie Estrella's pitches can probably offset splits of 64 to the tune of a 4.50 ERA, but can Rob Strickland's cover up a vR of 45? Guess that's the fun of it when you're shooting for a close pass of the mwr.
The Leather: top's teams typically help their pitching a lot with defense; this one, not so much. SS and CF will be OK-not-great with Pagnozzi and Arrubarrena, but 2B Taylor lost his defensive chops years ago. The COF spots will probably provide most of the defensive highlights.
Predicting teams that are trying to hit mwr's is tough. Looks to me like they'll score enough runs to compete pretty well, but they undershot what they need on pitching. In any event, a tough year ahead in Jacksonville.
The Lineup: Louie Almonte is heading for retirement with 351 HR's and an .820 OPS - pretty spiffy career numbers for an infielder. He'll be replaced at 3B by either Trayce Zoltan or Jeremie Kent (or both, although I think Zoltan has the edge), likely with no falloff in production. New signee Omar Deleon will be a welcome addition. Whether he plays 1B or not, his production basically replaces their 1B production of last year, which was a dead zone (yes, even 99-win teams have holes). The big engines of the lineup, of course, are LF Eric White (.282/44/104) and RF Keith Jones (.301/45/105). They squeezed a nice season out of CF Billy O'Sullivan (.790 OPS) so they re-signed him for 2 more. Looks like he'll platoon in CF again with Ronny Wingo and handle the vR leadoff duties.
The Staff: Well, a CY season from Lawrence Morey was certainly a nice bonus for the league-leading (ERA 3.45) staff. Their front 3 of Rapp, Morey and Viciedo is probably tops in the NL. They're still auditioning 4th/5th starters and the odds favor incumbent Matt Booker and FA find Stryker Bradley. They have the late innings well-handled with the elderly-but-still-tough Sam Stock, Freddie Martin and Malachi Carver. The staff is proof-positive you can get a lot more out of aging rosters than you think.
The Leather: The Buckeyes tolerate a so-so defense in deference to their runs scored totals. This comes mostly in the form of Jones doing what comes naturally to a DH in RF (23 bad plays). But it's a strategic decision, not neglect. They do get high-level defense at 2B with Rijo (GG last year) and decent play at the other infield spots. White could be a GG contender in LF if he stays in that spot (he provided what highlights there were at 1B last year in just 400 innings).
It's certainly an older team but I don't see any signs of a dropoff. If anything, DeLeon could bump runs scored up past 750, and (scary thought) Rapp could be a lot better than he was last year.
The Lineup: Some nice budget offseason moves to get a little more punch and a little more cushion over the mwr. Philip Corsi steps in a 3B - he'll be a defensive upgrade over Dan Tipton. Tipton, last year's best hitter (.304/28/72), moves to LF in place of the soon-to-retire Jack Hayes. Hayes probably played 1 season too many, but he ends up with 628 HR's and a likely ticket to the Hall. Former Fog mainstay Geronimo Posada takes over RF. Howie DeRosa seems to specialize in keeping 2B or CF warm on rebuilding teams, and he gets a chance to do that for a couple of years in St. Louis. Lonnie Taubensee returns at 1B after slamming 42 roundtrippers last year. This group should be 50-100 runs better than last season's 595.
The Staff: Last years best starters, Hugh Cheney and Andy Wagner, both returned on new FA contracts. They, along with RP Toru Jung, were the extent of the good pitching news last year. This year they'll be the nucleus but they'll have more help. Nipsey Levis was set to join the rotation but hit a Spring Training injury snag and will sidelined for 40 games or so. That leaves Rule 5 draftee Jhonatan Altuve and holdovers Mariano Flores and Josmil Bonilla to round out the rotation. A-Bomb management rolled the dice on the health of relievers Pete Bonham and Everth Torres - both will be big improvements in the 'pen if they can stay on the field. Nicasio and Coleman didn't do much last year but have before - they're better than journeymen.
The Leather: The defense was about NL-average last year and should tick up a notch. The Corsi signing improves them a lot at 3B and Tipton should match or even surpass Hayes' excellent defense (10 + plays) last year. Paolo Redondo is GG-caliber in CF, SS Lemon is very good, and DeRosa will be an improvement at 2B. Defense will be a strong point in S48.
They've improved quite a bit at bat and in the field; the pitching staff is potentially better but really relies on the availability of 2 fragile relievers. All in all they should see a nice jump in wins.
The Lineup: The pipeline continues to spit out talent - 3 more lineup cogs to start the season (although all 3 saw some ML action last year). Catcher Yimi Oliva (S44 #25 pick) looks like he'll be a nice power/on-base combo hitter, especially against lefties. Not sure exactly where he'll fit onto the 3-way catcher rotation, but he'll be a factor. 2B Darren Pressley was S45's #6 pick. He looks (ratings-wise) a lot like Jimmy Stairs and wouldn't be a bad bet to follow in his footsteps as a power-hitting, switch-hitting, 2B-playing NL ROY. RF Jeurys Suarez ($35MM IFA S45) jumped to the Bigs last year after just 724 minor league AB's. He's another big-time power prospect who will get a lot better over the course of the season. They still have some lineup holes - Omar Pelaez is subpar for a 1B - but this year's lineup should be a vast improvement over last year's 662-run producer.
The Staff: The Vikings' 5 starters last year all had ERA's above 4 last year, and they're bringing them back for another try (it looks like the #5 stater spot will go to Reagan Osborne in place of Cahz Andrews. Holm, Koplove, and Tejada were rookies, so we don't really know what they are yet. Wang is 4 seasons into his career, and he looks exactly like a 4.64-ERA pitcher - not bad if he's your #5, big trouble if he's your #1. The bullpen is a little more talented, but still unpredictable. Like Sierra, Osborne and Tannehill last year (all ERA's in the 3's), several will pop out good seasons this year. But we don't know which several.
The Leather: Too many errors last year (95), but they also turned in 75 good plays. 3B Benitez (GG in S47) is a vacuum cleaner and a bazooka all rolled into one. It would be worth considering playing him at SS if they had another good 3B sitting around. Pelaez makes up for his offensive shortcoming somewhat in the field (GG S46). SS Mulholland (.977, 12 good plays) was solid as a rookie. The 3 big-hitting newcomers will be OK in the field, nothing special.
Cleveland looks like the team that will improve a lot in the East. Adequate defense, much-improved hitting, but a big question mark over the staff. They won't threaten Columbus this year, but they're going the right direction.
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