The Lineup: The St. Pats suffered this season's biggest FA loss with the Kennedy signing by San Fran. 38 HR's, 117 RBI, 1462 innings played at 1B (with 25 good plays) - that's a load to replace but management handled it deftly. Bud Robbins moves to 1B, where he'll be every bit the player Kennedy was, plus some. Cam Wathan moves from CF to 3B, and rookie Rafael Wilfredo takes over in CF. So they replaced Kennedy with Wilfredo. He was a $17MM IFA in S44 who's going to be a pretty good hitter - think .260 with 20-25 HR's. He's got the range to play CF but I suspect his glove is going to be a bit of a liability. The again, he'll hit better than almost all "true defensive" CF's. They're going to lose a little offense going from Kennedy to Wilfredo, but given the salary difference, it's a great replacement. Robbins, Kim and Jordan are still at the top of their games, so we can expect 740-750 runs.
The Staff: Toronto took the Kennedy savings and re-invested it mostly in pitching. For about 2x what they paid Kennedy last year, they signed Vladimir Pescado, Ronald Hoover, Dave Waters, and Wilbur Harris. Not a huge impact, but a step up at some mid-and-lower-spots on the staff. Jumbo Morris and Chris Houston are still the 1 and 1A SP's and the guys who have to get 210-220 IP with ERA's in the low 3's. Charles Wiltse really flourished in Toronto after toiling for years in the pitcher nightmares of Hartford and Durham - as (I guess) their #3 starter he's a key as anybody. I think we'll see a little better pitching this year in TOR.
The Leather: They catch everything (.989 fielding %) and their 80/15 was one of the best +/- in the NL. Robbins will be even better at 1B than Kennedy was, Wathan could be a GG contender at 3B and Coffey is A+ at SS. They're going to have some errors in CF and 2B, but nothing major. They'll still be among the best defensive squads in the NL.
The Lineup: The rebuilding Ottawa lineup has been all Lorenzo Rosario (with the occasional hot streak from 3B Fergie Schmidt , RF Miguel Fuentes and C Torey Lively), the slugging CF who's gunning for his 7th straight 40-HR season. I think the farm system will finally get him some help this year with the callups of Vin Andino and Juancito Blanco. Andino was the #20 pick in S43 and has developed into a good-field, average-hit 2B/3B. Blanco was a $37MM IFA in S45 who has become a great-range, great-arm SS who can hit for power. There's really no point in keeping him in the minors for another year, since he's 24 and they'll have him under control through his age 34 season (when his power, range and arm strength will be plummeting). They need to just plug him in at SS now and enjoy the next 11 seasons. They could also get a little boost from second-year 1B Blake Kohlscheen, who's not the ultimate answer but is better than his rookie .727 OPS suggests. If he starts slowly we could see Bump Graveman (S44 #7). Livan Lee (S45 #5) seems a sure bet for a callup as well. So we could see 4 promotions at the 20-game mark, with 3 being pretty serious power bats. They're going to score more like 730 runs this year.
The Staff: You couldn't have asked for a better first 2 seasons from Audry Rojas. The $35.8MM IFA from S43 has 21 wins and a 3.23 ERA. Unfortunately he's the only interesting arm on the ML staff - for now. Things pick up in a few games when they promote Jose Encarnacion, but they'll still only have 2 (albeit very) interesting arms. I see management shopping Andrews (AA) and Forrester for bats...I don't know, it looks to me like they have the bats and desperately need more pitching. Their really good pitching prospects are in the low minors, but they could promote Andrews and Forrester - and Victor Sanchez (AAA) and Avery May (AA) for that matter - and be better off than they are now.
The Leather: They haven't been very good in the field of late but will improve with the promotions. Blanco will still make some errors but will be a big play machine at SS. Andino may not win a starting position but can hit enough to get into games as a defensive replacement. And Lee is a clear step up at 2B over Guardado.
This will be one of the most interesting teams in Hobbs this season. They'll score a lot more and play better defense...the question is whether they can assemble a competitive staff. With 3 tough competitors in their division, I don't think they can contend this year, but they'll be a lot of fun.
The Lineup: Whoa, adding Alex Kennedy and Tanner Mlicki was probably the single biggest move of the offseason, (although it looks like Mlicki will be a 1-season rental). This was already a 747-run offense, paced by the power of Yao-Lin Chen (.270/51 149) and the on-basing of Ralph Clancy (.332/24/108). Stat note: the previews occasionally take note of the active 6-season, 40-HR streak by Lorenzo Rosario, Willie Taylor and Gerald Lim. Over that 6-season stretch, Chen has 301 HR's to Rosario's 264, Taylor's 255, and Lim's 254. Kennedy takes over at SS from last year's trio and Mlicki goes to LF in place of (mostly) Gus Vanguri. Big upgrades. Look for 800 runs.
The Staff: It's mostly last year's 3.87-ERA staff with some minor changes. The front 3 of Holland, Waters and Seaver all posted 3-something ERA's with 13+ wins and 200+ IP. That puts you in contention right there. Rob Kulik (3.78 ERA) and Harvey Matz (3.15 ERA) both performed well in part-time rotation tryouts last year, so they've won the #4 and #5 spots. Both are decent, but as Matz start to this year has show (11 IP, 11 earned runs), I doubt either will be a 3-something ERA pitcher for his career. It's reasonable to forecast that they'll struggle a little at 4 and 5 and (maybe) have someone else settle into those spots as the season wears on. The bullpen is somewhat of an enigma. They of course have Sam Teagarden eating up middle innings and they've gotten very nice short relief work out of Daric Fordham. Julio Rivera and Carter Bradley hurt them last year. Both should be pretty good, but especially Rivera, and he's put together a 4.40-ERA resume so far. They need one more killer in the 'pen.
The Leather: Defense in NY is, well, not a strong point. Chen's no maestro at 3B, Uribe in CF is range-challenged, and Kennedy will be bad at SS. Uchida got a little unlucky with so many bad plays (13) last year; he's not that bad, but he's far from a "defensive weapon" at 2B.
The big story here is the lineup boost Mlicki and Kennedy bring. With a little pitching luck they could be special.
The Lineup: Pretty much a stand-pat offseason for Vancouver, other than the promotion of S43 IFA Wilin Ascensio - he brings some RH pop as the vL catcher. The Music was #2 in runs in the NL last year with a versatile attack that did everything pretty well: 3rd in HR's (RF Rosenthal tops with 37), 3rd in OBP (CF Mota .383), and even though they weren't prolific base-stealers they were efficient (2B Stairs 30-of-32). Stairs, of course, took the NL ROY and I'd bet he'll be better this season. Kenny Miller was a key FA signing, contributing 103 RBI - they need a repeat of that performance. I expect around last year's 826 runs again.
The Staff: Familiar faces save new LR Ken Diaz and rookie Karim Lee. Looks like they'll repeat last year's rotation of Tollberg, Blackley, Jones, Garces and McMahon (69 wins and 996 innings). Dick Voight handled another 148 innings in relief (6 wins, 8 saves, 3.39), so those 6 guys threw 78% of their innings. Hoss Siddal and Onan Martin have shown flashes and could contribute this year, but they're low-inning short relievers. Tell me what their 5 starters + Voight will do this year and you'll have the story of their '48 staff. Should be pretty good.
The Leather: .987 fielding % and 73/21 +/- in S47, so they definitely help the cause in the field. Silva and Walters are a top SS duo (23 + plays between them), and they get excellent defense with Mota in CF, Contreras at 1B and Rosenthal in RF. Stairs is just adequate at 2B and Miller is a bit of a liability at 3B (obviously, both more than make up for it at the plate).
The Chin Music surprised us with their hot start and jump up to 92 wins, but if you look at the roster, it wasn't a fluke. Solid hitters everywhere, a budding star in Stairs, and Grade A defense. The risk is the shallow staff. The 5 starters and Voight are money, but they're 1 injury away from a big problem. Still, I think they'll contend again.
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