Monday, September 2, 2019

Season 44 Trade thoughts volume 1

Kansas City did well.  So did Colorado.  Boston pissed me off a little, New Orleans a lot.  Columbus confused me.

The Kansas City Jayhawks trade Maicer Candelario and Ruben Pescado to the Las Vegas Mongeese for Einar Vargas

This deal is a sign that KC thinks they are ready to go now.  We’ll see.  Vargas is a strong #3 starter or a below average #2 starter.  He’s the kind of guy that every contender needs to get 12-15 wins and keep the bullpen fresh.  Probably not a playoff starter, but a 200 inning 4ish era guy.  He wasn’t free.  While Pescado is just a guy (and in fact wasn’t even covered in rule 5), I like Candelario a lot.  In fact, there is probably a better than 75% chance that he becomes a better starter than Vargas someday.  The trade is a little surprising for Las Vegas who also appears to be trying to win now.  They must have liked the value.  I do too.



The Kansas City Jayhawks trade Micah Scharein and cash to the Helena Hot Heads Melky Osuna

Don’t let Dakar read this, but I really like this trade for him and understand it for both sides.  Scharein looks like should be only a hair worse than the Varga- who they just-but instead has been a 5th starter at best.   Moving Scharein makes room in the rotation for Vargas and for their trouble they pick up a top 10 catcher.  Dakar will need to manage his games, but I am sure he will.  For Helena a team that wasn’t going to win any time soon trades loses the trade on talent, but frees up about 5 million in cash and gets them out of a long-term deal.  My quibble with Helena is that the Osuna’s deal was pretty reasonable and I think they could have shaken KC down for one more 2nd/3rd tier prospect.



The Montgomery Scotts trade Derrick Skrmetta to the Colorado House of Horrors for Daryl Fellhauer

 On the face of it this is an odd deal for the Scotts.  Skrmetta is an above average, do-it-all 3rd baseman.  He’ll do really well in Colorado.  For the Horrors this is a 2 thumbs up deal.  The Scotts get a solid relief prospect.  He’ll be a real nice setup B and may even end up as a decent setup A.  I don’t seem him as a closer, but he’s 12-year ML’er.  I like Felhauer, but the value seems a little light and the timing is weird.  Didn’t the Scotts just win it all last year?  Though the 6-million dollar deal is quite reasonable for Skrmetta, getting out from under it may have been the Scotts motivation.



The Boston Beer Bellies trade James Haney to the Kansas City Jayhawks for Luis Stein, Jerrod Gillaspie, and Butch Vaughn

This deal surprised me (I kind of wish I would have had the money/prospects to get in on it).  Haney has been a fan favorite in Boston and last year’s down season was almost assuredly and adoration in otherwise staller career in Boston.  Stein and Gillaspie are end of the roster guys.  Vaughn is a good prospect who should be a #3 starter someday, but he’ll never be as good as Haney.  For KC this deal is a coup.  A #2 starter for guys who probably weren’t going to be on KC’s roster and only one he’ll ever miss a little.  Because Stein and Gillaspie are making a little money its not even a big salary addition.  CURSE YOU DAKAR!



The Columbus Buckeyes trade Cheslor Bonham to the Colorado House of Horrors for Vic Guerrieri and cash

A nothing interesting deal.  The Buckeyes get a little extra talent for the cost of less than 2 million.  Colorado saves a little cash.



The Colorado House of Horrors trade Orber Brantley to the Columbus Buckeyes for Max Vazquez

Slightly bigger deal, but only barely.  Colorado get rets rid of a bench piece they don’t want and get a 3rd their prospect in return and saves a little cash.  I’m not sure what the Buckeyes are up to.



The Montreal Shamrocks trade Brooks Bell and Mark Pettitte to the Colorado House of Horrors for Ken Stevens

I LOVE THIS DEAL FOR COLORADO!!  Best move I have covered so far.  Its tough to tell at this point, but Stevens, the #7 pick in last seasons draft was probably over drafted a bit.  If things go just right he’s a #2 starter at best and if I had to place my own money on it I have him as a #4.  A ML’er and a guy who has value as a prospect, but he probably won’t even sniff the majors for 3 seasons and be a usable ML starting pitcher for 4.  In return Colorado picks up an all-star RF’er on a fair contract.  PLUS, they get the best or 2nd best pitcher moved so far.  While he’s 33, he’s in the last year of his deal which means Colorado will never have to overpay him.  In fact, he probably turns in to a type A.  Because of the money tossed its not even that big of a financial impact.

The Columbus Buckeyes trade Wayne Janssen to the Colorado House of Horrors for Jerry King and cash

These two need to get a room.  This is their THIRD deal together.  Anyway, this deal make no sense for Columbus.  King, who slept with one of Werniss’ mistresses last year if you remember, suddenly went from a productive, starting level ML’er to AAA after the incident became public.  If you accept that King was never going to be allowed to be with 500 miles of Stacy and Weniss again and therefore had no value to Colorado, they pick up a really excellent backup catcher for essentially nothing.  The Columbus side of the deal made sense even if King was just going to be their best bat off the bench. . . until they waived him.  I mean how many 5mil guys get claimed.  That is how good King is.  I’m not sure what the Buckeyes are up to.



The Columbus Buckeyes trade Harry Faulk, Jeanmar Melian, and Pablo Andrus to the Richmond High Rollers for Lawrence Morey

Finally a Columbus deal that makes sense.  Forget about Melian and Andrus who may never see the majors or if they do will just be guys.  This is a Faulk for Morey trade.  Morey is the seemingly 14th #3 starter moved this off-season, but I like him.  He’s a little old, but fits Columbus’ timeline so its all good.  Faulk is a future ML’er.  Probably a #3/#4 type, but solid and a 100% to make the ML guy.  Good deal for both sides.



The Milwaukee Chedda trade Pat Jodie to the New Orleans Voodoo for Socks Jenkins, Stan Story, and Chad Haynes

Kind of weird deal.  You have to say that the Voodoo won it since they got Jodie and Jodie is a true #1 starter in the prime of his career.  There really is no more valuable asset.  The timing is a weird perhaps as there is no clear sign that the Voodoo are going for the title, but I guess if you can buy a Van Gogh you don’t get caught up on the timing.  Milwaukee gets a package with a lot of value, if no clear direction.  Story takes Jodie’s spot in the rotation.  He’s 80% of Jodie, but is significantly older too.  Jenkins’ splits worry me, but he could get to a low end #2 starter and that is a good asset.  He’s a year away from majors, but probably 3 seasons from being a difference maker.  Haynes is the least valuable asset in the deal.  He’s cheap and usable, but probably best as Long A/spot starter.  I’d be curious to hear what the Chedda’s motivation was as I just don’t see the through line to this deal.





The Honolulu Luau Dawgs trade Cam Wathan and Dave Hasselman to the Toronto St. Pats for Theo Schulte

A pretty straight forward deal.  Honolulu picks up a sold #2 starter in Schulte.  The St. Pats get a solid middle IF prospect in Wathan.  I’m a little worried as I am sure of his position, but I’m sure he’ll be fine.  Hasselman is a decent bat off the bench, but not much else.  Honolulu gets a little more value, but once guys get over 30 its hard to get fair value so Toronto did fine.



The Honolulu Luau Dawgs trade Eduardo Albaladejo to the Salt Lake City Trappers for Humberto Almora and Cash

Another solid deal for Honolulu.  Almora is a plus defender and has enough bat.  Not a good bat mind you, but the defense makes it ok.  The deal makes less sense got SLC.  I am not sure Albadejo does anything at a ML level.  He’s pretty AAAA.  I guess he could be a glove off the bench, but there is better.  I’d buy it as a salary move except SLC kicked in half the cash.  I don’t get it.

The Salt Lake City Trappers trade Brant Douglass, David Seneca, and Byron Huff to the New Orleans Voodoo for Marty Austin, Stefen Balentien, and Juan Carlos Alvardo

I’m not sure what to think about this deal.  The rare prospect for prospect deal.  I’d love to read a blog post on how this deal came to be.  I think I like New Orleans side better, but I could change my opinion by the end of this review.  Seneca is the most interesting player.  Still developing, he possess elite speed and contact.  His eye isn’t excellent yet, but that is attribute that takes the longest to get where it will finally land so it might get to elite.  He’s also a decent RF’er and will hit against righties.  I wish he had a little more power, but he’s probably a 300/370/450 guy with steals and that is 5th-10th best RF’er in the majors type.  Plus guy.  Douglass is hard for me to judge.  He’s old for a prospect with only 1 year of experience (23) so I am not sure how much he will develop (that is not to say he will not develop, don’t miss read that.  In the end I would guess he’s has enough bat for 3B, but with a marginal glove.  A starting 3B, but a below average starter.   Huff is the easiest guy to judge in the deal.  A straight forward solid setup A prospect that could close if you need him to.  Young and ML ready now.  Austin was a high pick (5th), but is starting from a really low base for 19.  If those were his ratings at the draft I would worry a little, now I worry a lot.   Huge variability at this point, but if you put a gun to my head I think he will be a 4th starter.  Balentien is more straight forward.  A young #3 starter with a little more room to grow and no service time.  A good asset and a 10 ML player, though not an all-star.  Alvardo has the best upside in the deal.  Seneca is the best player, but if I had to pick one player to keep its Alvarado.  He’s a slightly above league average 3B now with no service time and will get better.  He’ll make 1-3 all-star teams would be my guess. 

I talked myself into it.  I’ll take the SLC side of the deal, but it is close.



The very mean, not New Orleans Voodoo nice trade Chris Osborne and cash to the Montgomery Scotts for Nori Zhang

My issue with this deal is all sour grapes.  I had been inquiring on Osborne for many seasons.  I’d have given up a ton since at least 3 seasons ago.  Then when the deal happened, I was never even asked to make an offer.  Grumpy, grump, grump. 

Osborne is the best.  He’s not that old (29), and he is under contract for years.  He’s probably the most valuable asset in Roy Hobbs.  If that isn’t the truth he is the asset I would pay the most for.  Total and complete stud in every way that matters.  Nori Zhang is a AAA for some unknown reason.  No reason that make sense.  Anyway, he he’s a true #1 starter and only 23.  I think he’s pretty much as developed as he will get.  He may add a point or two here or there, but not enough to fundamentally change him.  Anyway, the only reason he will have a little variability in his out comes is his Vs. R.  Other than that, he is a complete package as a #1 starter.  He’s just not the best in the league.  Osborne is. 

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