Season 44 NL West Preview

San Francisco Fog
pfontaine
SEA 43:  104-58

The Good:   steady, on-base oriented (598 walks) offense featuring stars at 1B and COF (Francisco Guerrero, Geronimo Posada and Del Perez) and lots of complimentary contributors.  They're a better power team than you think; when you look at road Slugging % (to wash out home park effects), SF was #3 in Slugging.  C Almadova led the team with 31 HR's, but 9 others were in double figures.  I like the staff's chances to improve this year. Zach McLaughlin had the worst ERA (by far) of his 13-year career (and not because of ratings decline) so he's almost guaranteed to rebound.  I like the look of rookie SP Bump Peters (SEA 40 #6 overall) - he'll likely replace and improve on Antonio Key in the rotation. 

The Bad: hard to find much.  Is Kirk Marks a true ace?  His ERA away from the friendly home park was 3.81 last year (but 2.06 the year before).  Maybe he's a touch below the top 5 SP's in Hobbs, maybe?  WS Ring in '42 says he's good enough.  

I have to say this franchise is the antithesis of "ugly".  They play defense, they pitch, they wait out walks.  They didn't bumble around (like OKC, ahem) when they decided to rebuild, they got on with it and got it done in 5 seasons.  Good model franchise for all of us.

Predicted Record:  105-57

Honolulu Luau Dogs
rockydawg07
SEA 42: 91-71 

The Good:  13-win improvement for the most difficult team to predict (although Florida may be gaining in that department).  I think Brad Terry has been under-appreciated his whole career; he had a down year last season so watch for him to come back with a vengeance. Nathan Lindblom gave them a ROY surprise and should be a consistent power source.

The Bad:  the staff improved quite a bit last year with much the same cast, so I worry about regression.  Tucker Hood is probably their #1 SP, and while he did have his best ERA year last year, it wasn't by a whole lot; he's been under 4.00 ERA every season and a big winner the last 3 years with 19, 17 and 17.  All-in-all I'm more concerned that the lineup will fall off.  It's kind of an all-or-nothing attack (4th in HR's with 234 but 9th in OBP at .317).  I can't see CF Javy Valenzuela matching his career-best .851 OPS at age 32.  I suppose Nick Green could OPS .800 again at age 37 (probably a bet worth taking at $2.2MM), but those ratings are going to drop fast by mid-year and the HLT of 47 looms large.  The offense is where the big risks are.

The Ugly:  Sustainability.  Ever since its magical 106-win season 38, this franchise has been an enigma wrapped in a riddle and has defied my best attempts at predicting its course.  

Predicted Record: if there's 1 team for which you can count on my prediction being the opposite of what really happens, this is it.  So I'm covering my ass with 2 predictions this year.  What I think they'll do based on my eyeball analysis is go 83-79.  So what they'll do based on my past record is go 100-62

Scottsdale Cardinals
finnski

SEA 43: 72-90

The Good:  Trevor Fick (at least the last 2 seasons' worth of him), Billy Walker, Paul Tanaka and Ronald Hoover.  Possibly Jerome Mathis, the #3 pick of S41, who still has some ratings increases on the way.

The Bad: the payroll ($82MM), obviously for a 72-win team, although it is set to fall pretty steeply next season.  There are 6 minimum salaries on the ML roster now...are the Cards setting up for a couple of super-cheap seasons with IFA's and a fast rebuild?  It wouldn't be their typical modus operandi but maybe they're changing it up.

The Ugly: What will be the stat lines at year's end for 1B Yonder Guzman, CF Vinny Leary, and the defensive numbers for all the shortstops.

Predicted Record:  67-95

Salt Lake City Trappers
palet99
SEA 43: 65-97

The Good: first season as expected for our new old owner.  Didn't go nuts in FA, got the payroll down to $44MM to start the year, solid first draft pick with Brant Douglass.  Got the long-overdue transition of Hooks Gose to 3B started.  Joey Spezio can pick it at SS.

The Bad:  Gose had 1 of his 2 worst seasons last year, so we're expecting a return to something around his career-average .832 OPS.  Spezio may be able to pick it, but his .485 OPS last year might be the worst I've seen for a somewhat-regular player.

The Ugly:  get ready for some inflammatory stat lines from some of these Rule V pitchers they picked up (Matz, Diekman).  Hey, they'll be able to tell their grandkids they played in The Show.

Predicted Record:  62-100