Season 44 AL West Preview

Oakland Shillelagh
rourke
SEA 43: 79-83

Still has a trio of dangerous hitters in 1B Domingo Marmol, 3B Wayne Langerhans and (presumably) 2B Darren Harren.  A couple of good table-setters in CF's Stockton and Ordonez.  I like the FA signing of SP Andre Counsel although it's not the kind of value buy that signings of 36-yo's can be.

There's starting to be a lot, only a season removed from 3-straight 90+ win seasons.  Lost Destin Harang and 3 pretty solid (although decidedly aging) RP's (Miller, Cromer and Rogers) in FA.  The lineup won't score 810 runs - or close to it - again without any corner OF's on the roster.  Payroll of $78MM and the team's going nowhere.

Inattention.  The team's on auto-pilot with 17 players on the ML roster.  No ML prospects in the minors.  While I'd like to see some signs of rebuilding, at this point I'd be encouraged by some signs of anything.

Predicted Record:  70-92

Colorado House of Horrors
werniss
SEA 43: 80-82

The Ken Stevens for Brooks Bell and Mark Pettitte trade.  Brooks will be a #3 or #4 starter - not a bad young prospect but #'s 3 and 4 starters aren't that hard to find on the last day of FA.  Bell is the gem in this deal, but with that PAT of 11 he's certain to go FA after next season.  With Pettite also likely to be a FA after this year, it means the HOH gets 2 seasons of the OF and (probably) 1 season of the SP for their prospect.  Still a good trade for their win-now effort.

COL's park effect has always obscured the fact that their pitching is way better than it looks (their team ERA away from Coors last year was #2 in the NL).  Pettitte will only help - with Martinez and Stock that's 3 potential playoff dominators.

New C Frank Graham (SEA 39's #12 overall) made an impressive debut last season with 49 HR's.

Of course, they do have to make the playoffs, meaning probably 10-12 more wins than last year.  Bell is better than the player he essentially replaces - last year's 35-yo Dante Kawasaki - but not 10 wins better.  Bell + Pettitte = 10 more wins?  Maybe at the the outside.  

The reality of the HOH offense.  It looks impressive with 965 runs scored, but away from Coors it was only 2nd (to Vegas) in OPS and a bit above the league average in OBP.  
The cupboard is bare in the minors, but that reflects more the team's propensity to trade prospects than it's ability to draft or develop talent.

Predicted Record:  88-74

Los Angeles Motley Crue
iceman67
Season 43: 

The defense continues to be superb (113 good plays last year) despite the absence of an elite (or at the moment, any) SS.  2B Tony Acosta won his 3rd straight GG while CF Desi Cespedes won his 6th straight (1B Dillon Mateo took home his 3rd GG but his first since Season 38).

There are a couple of bright spots in the lineup.  Cespedes is a plus hitter to be such a good defender (he took the NL's Silver Slugger last year with an .801 OPS effort).  DH Jed Tallet is a consistent 100-run producer.  Mateo can occasionally (well, OK not often enough) contribute enough for a 1B.

Matty Ludwick, while not dominant, has been a consistent winner as their #1 SP.

Rico Alomar was pretty much Ludwick's equal last year, but it was an aberration for him.  The rest of the staff is ho-hum, made to look even better than it is by the defense.  They could improve with a surprise big season or 2 - old timer Davey Rogers and Murray Brooks might be the best bets for mini-breakouts.

The offense just doesn't put up enough runs to bail out the staff, and the D can't offset the relative shortages of hitting at 1B and the COF slots.  Newcomer Benito Manuel is probably the best bet to pump up the RF production some, although only the OBP number.

Predicted Record:  76-86

Las Vegas Mongeese
jcairns
SEA 43:  90-72

Lots, coming off their 5th straight season of improved winning %.  You'd be hard-pressed to find a better 2B-SS-3B trio in Hobbs history than Ainsworth, Fonville and Stock.  All are capable of Silver Sluggers at their positions (Stock has one at SS), and Stock and Ainsworth are GG-caliber defenders (while I'd call Fonville only a decent defender at SS, he might be the best all-round SS in Hobbs).  I think the lineup is tops in the AL.  They did get a couple of late-career surprise seasons from Wilk and Cruz last season, but Stock had a relatively poor year and Ainsworth only had 100 ML games.  No reason they shouldn't be right around 880 runs again.  

The pitching staff is good (4.13 ERA last year - 4th in NL) but probably not championship caliber.

Nipsey Levis was the standout pitcher last year with 15 wins and a 3.71 ERA, but the up-down of his career suggest he won't do it again.  Mark Cloud was good after escaping Colorado but is in his age-36 year and has never been a big innings masher.  Marcos Presley was very good and prolific as usual but has reached age 39.  Let's not say "Bad" here, let's just say there are a lot of doubts.

OK, they trade Einar Vargas, a career 4.62 OPS-against starter, to KC for Maicer Candelario and Ruben Perscado, a pair of younger, cheaper Vargas starter-kits.  Fair enough, more pitching depth in return for giving up a slightly more talented veteran.  And then they  forget to protect Pescado from the Rule V?   Uuuuuuglyyyyyyy......

Predicted Record:  93-69